Originally Posted by
21forme
Suppose there's a whale playing baccarat, betting $100K per hand. He has a bad run and is down $6 million after an hour. He wants to keep playing, but the casino wants to lock in their big win and backs him off. Does that make any sense?
As long as you (or in this case, the casino) is playing a game with an edge, there's never a reason to stop play based on the recent results. A positive expectation is a positive expectation, regardless of the short-term noise.
Another example - in recent years, roulette tables have had electronic displays showing results of the last 10-20 rolls. Not infrequently, you see 5-10 reds (or blacks) in a row. People run up to the table to bet the opposite color, because "it is due." Total BS. An independent trial is an independent trial.
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