Richard Munchkin and others always recommend not splitting 10s because it will draw unwanted attention. However, I don't want to lose out on valuable EV. Does anyone here split their 10s? Do you feel it brings unwanted attention to you?
Actually not uncommon play at many venues, and sometimes, at some places, based upon the frequency of this play, it is nearly accepted as a common variant of basic strategy (we all know it is not).
"Your honor, with all due respect: if you're going to try my case for me, I wish you wouldn't lose it."
Fictitious Boston Attorney Frank Galvin (Paul Newman - January 26, 1925 - September 26, 2008) in The Verdict, 1982, lambasting Trial Judge Hoyle (Milo Donal O'Shea - June 2, 1926 - April 2, 2013) - http://imdb.com/title/tt0084855/
The EV gain at super high True Counts is pretty hard to ignore. The Index is +4/+5 for vs 6 and vs 5, but if you wait until TC +7 to split vs 6 and +8 to split vs 5 you'll still gain 50% of the total expectation from splitting 10's and only make the play 25% as often. You'll also be in a better position to resplit to 4 hands if you catch consecutive tens. While the heat can be enormous it is also wildly unpredictable. Sometimes the pitboss high-fives you for doing it, sometimes he kicks you out. It definitely gets you the attention of people you don't want to have the attention of. Personally unless I had a loose image and was losing for the session and I was about to leave anyway I'd avoid doing this play and I'd definitely never do the play right at the index. I use the Zen Count and I have an index of +13 for doing this. It also depends heavily on what casino you are at. Is the casino a sweatshop that you've spend a lot of effort getting in good at? Or is it a live and let live kind of place that doesn't really care.
The late MathProf has a nice discussion post over in the bj21.com archives with simulations and all of the details on waiting until higher than the normal index for splitting 10-10. I'd suggest checking it out. (November 1998 POM in the Green Chip Archives)
Last edited by bigplayer; 08-16-2019 at 07:50 PM.
Iirc you get around 2/3 of the total gain available from splitting 10’s vs 5-6 at HiLo TC+6 and higher. Believe there was a green chip post about that years ago. I rarely split them but will at times if I’m out the door quick, not coming back for at least weeks, and the TC has exceeded +6.
edit: bigplayer referenced what I was referring to in the first part of my post while I was typing, in a more accurate manner.
from a mathematical perspective the question should be worded "why wouldn't you split 10s" as opposed to "should" you split 10s
to simplify this proposition:
- dealer has a 5 or 6 upcard showing
- you are sitting with a ten on each hand
- out of the gate there are 5 out of 13 tens or aces ranks (10, J, Q, K, A)
- the index (hilo) is TC +5, (suggesting that there are 5 more tens/aces per deck than a normal deck composition)
- this means that 10/13 cards remaining, per deck, are either a 10 or an ace (haha!)
now just imagine you are GUARANTEED this proposition BEFORE you place a wager (any cards are dealt):
- dealer has a 5 or 6 upcard
- you have a 10 on your first card
- 10/13 cards remaining per deck are tens/aces
....your only question should be "how much am I allowed to wager?" (ans:table max)
it's a 'silly advantage', which is why is is so powerful....
obviously, you DON'T do it if you care about longevity...frankly, I DON'T
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