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Originally Posted by
RTR2021
Good info Skinny. But what if I know of SD games paying the standard 3:2? Assuming >50% penetration, do I still need such a spread?
I'd suggest reading the Chapter in Uston's "Million Dollar Blackjack" called "The Art of Playing Single Deck". There is far more involved to beating the game than you think. The configuration of the table to the number of players to the number of rounds you get is far more important than a the normal conception of penetration. Think of penetration for single deck as the typical point where you get to make your final wager not the total amount of cards seen. (although that does matter in terms of playing strategies). Most important is whether the dealer is consistent with the number of rounds you get to each number of players. High counts arise because many small cards come out, negative counts arise because fewer big cards come out. This can cause the dealer to give you 1 or 2 more rounds per shuffle in negative counts than positive counts simply because negative counts eat through the deck faster. This is a real killer and makes many single deck games unbeatable no matter how big you spread. (unless you're spreading $25-$500 or something absurd).
The spread required to win can be as much as 1-6 for an h17 d10 game with bad pen to as little as 1-2 for an h17 double any game where you are heads up seeing 8 rounds each shuffle. The real key to getting reasonable longevity at single deck is to be unpredictable with your spread. You mostly want to appear to be flat betting and varying your off the top wager and betting unit somewhat so that a skills check can't peg you easily. I prefer to spread 1-5 or 1-6 and alternate betting 2 or 3 units off the top and flat bet between -1 and +3 and parlay up to my max bet at +4 and down to my min bet at -2 (High-Low). To use a strategy like this you have to spread bigger. That said, I know some people who use a tight 1-3 spread and play like a robot and rely more on play deviations and index play. Another friend will spread 1x$25 to 2x$1000 at single deck and simply blasts one big count and hits the door win or lose. He lasted a long time doing this all over Reno.
Regardless, if you play single deck long enough at any store you're gonna eventually fry, it's just a fact of life. Especially if your action is the biggest in the casino.
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