what is wrong with guessing right and getting lucky sometimes too. i hope this doesnt mean i get this thread moved to the voodoo section. thanks norm
ive played alot of bj in my day. what i wanna know is why does everyone emphsize basic strategy so much. i feel its overrated when i go to the casino and usually only play 1 shoe worth maybe 20 hands total and im only trying to win a couple hands. i feel any round i POTENTIALLY can win wheater its staying when i should hit or hitting when i should stand as long as i win i win is ultimately the deciding factor as to a winning or losing night. i dont think that is throwing money out of the car before i get to the casino
Lets say you toss a coin, but this coin is weighted to be heads 60% of the time, and tails 40% of the time. You double your money if you guess it right, and lose it if you guess it wrong. The “basic strategy” for this game would be to always bet on heads and never on tails. Basic strategy tells you the best odds for each decision made. Yes this is simple, but the logic is the same with blackjack, as is any other game that relies on chance.
Your argument is “it’s been heads so many times, and I feel like its going to be tails this time”. So just based off a hunch and voodoo you bet tails. Only an idiot would bet tails because the expected value of betting heads is +20% while the expected value of tails is -20%, aka a loser.
Casino games are all losing games, but you’re less of a loser if you play the game optimally, hence, basic strategy.
Last edited by Tetn1s; 06-13-2019 at 09:36 PM.
ok lets keep this going before sending this to a different sub folder...
Say were playing heads or tails and its 50/50. how can you argue which side to play. odds are the same but if i keep guessing right and i keep track of my results then my choice should have no bearing on the outcome as long as im guessing right more than 50% of the time.
So if the dealer wins eventhou I was "suppose" to win, next time i have the same situation i can either lose again playing the same way or i can win by playing the other way. and depending on that outcome i would be either 1/2 in that situation or 0/2 in that situation. so keeping track of your results you have done in the past you can better gauge your odds of that situation in the future?
Basically isnt it going to be 50/50 either player wins or dealer wins. and depending on those results you can estimate your odds in the future?
guessing right and winning in the short term is what im trying to achieve. if u keep guessing wrong on a coin flip its not because you picked the wrong stretegy its because you guessed wrong. strategy to me depends on outcome so if the outcome is right then your strategy is right and vis-versa
no?
Blackjack isn’t an even coin flip, and past results doesn’t change the next outcome, thats gambler’s fallacy like I said.
here let me rephrase the question: say you knew that you had a 60% chance to win if you hit 15 v T and you had a 40% chance to win if you stood with 15 v T. Tell me why you would ever pick to stand on 15 v T if the odds are better to hit, for the same payout. That’s why basic says to hit 15 v T. Repeat this scenario for every hand combination and you have basic strategy.
(before anyone points it out, yes I know those aren’t the correct percentages for 15 v T but I am trying to set an example)
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