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Originally Posted by
Freightman
Interestingly enough (i haven’t tested this), your risk averse max bet should be higher than your EV max bet, and with lower variance.
Nobody has been very good at making their points clear here. But if you want to increase the edge you have on your total amount bet you are more conservative at raising your small advantage bets compared to your high advantage bets. This increases the advantage you have on the amount bet in the long run. It would maximize EV to raise your bets quicker but that increases variance more than it increases EV. Those large bets are the real EV producers and always have a big contribution toward total variance. That is why they are subject to RA plays. If you maximize SCORE by hand tweaking bets it will have you do one thing. If you maximize your advantage on the total amount you bet you will decrease your small advantage bets or in other words be more patient to raise your bets. If you want to maximize EV you will increase all your bets aggressively. I find it best to consider all three in a balance that keeps them all strong but maximizes none of them. You are not maximizing any one statistic but they are all near their zenith. The nature of TC frequency and EV will have you earning a lot higher percentage of your total bet (have a higher percentage advantage) if you bet less in the lower advantage TCs. Going to hard at maximizing any one of SCORE, EV, or total bet advantage will hurt the others. That last little bit in the maximizing process has you giving up a lot more for a small move to get to the maximum.
Being less aggressive at the top of your spread will cost a lot of EV and crush your total bet advantage.
Originally Posted by
dalmatian
In the garbage counts you still win a decent amount of your bets.
Especially in falling counts because each round that causes the count to fall was an advantage round representative of a high TC.
Originally Posted by
dalmatian
If your min is higher in the prevalent scenarios of losing every single one of your max bets you wont really have as bad of a situation as if your mins were as low as possible. I've had sessions where I lost 20 max bets and since I was doing a 40 to 1 spread no amount of good fortune in the min bets would have saved me from wanting to split my wrists......
Counting works in the long run. If you play enough hands you will win a certain percentage of your total amount bet for each TC. You will have winning clumps and losing clumps but getting the bets down when appropriate generates its portion of the total EV. It is the long run that will save you not anything that happens in the short run. Each TC has its own n0. The larger the advantage the lower the n0. But the other side of the coin is TC frequency. The larger the advantage the lower the TC frequency. The product of these two factors determines how many total rounds of play each TC has to reach its n0. n0 is variance divided by the square of EV, so the smaller the EV the higher the n0. The n0 for a marginal advantage may be tens of millions of rounds. That isn't going to have a stabilizing effect. It is basically gambling because you will never play enough rounds to expect to approach EV.
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