Couple times I had not even get a push in DD game, all lost and lost. One of them was in high count close to cut card with double/split and dealer had low up card. Very depressing.Originally Posted by ZeeBabar
Wow! I recently, playing with another person, and all of us, dealer and the two of us got BJ. The first guy had opted for even money, I did not insure figuring the odds of all 3 getting a BJ was remote. I pushed, and everyone thought I was stupid for not taking up "sure" money.
Your decision should be about the count not the cards on the table. Just so you know the odds of predicting all 3 players getting a BJ is a tiny fraction of the odds that the third player has a T under an ace given that the other two have a BJ:
Odds of all 2 players and the dealer with an ace up getting a BJ off the top of a 2 deck game:
(2*(8/104)*(32/103)) * ((2*(7/102)*(31/101)) * ((6/100)*30/99) = (0.0477968)*(0.0421277)*(.0181818) = 0.0000366 or 0.00366%
The odds the dealer has BJ with an ace up given the other 2 hands played got a BJ off the top of a 2 deck game:
30/99 = .303030303 or 30.03%
Your poor statistical logic was only off by a factor of 10,000 or 4 significant digits.
Last edited by Three; 09-11-2018 at 06:16 AM.
Explain the difference between your two highlighted statements. I am a simple HiLo player, need a bit more explanation. In both cases, all 3 people (dealer and players) getting cards have a BJ. Why are the percentages different?
On the first hand of a 2 deck game, the RC at the point where the dealer asks for insurance is a Minus 5. Are you saying I should have insured my BJ? Here is an opportunity to display your greatness and explain to all of us how you would have played the hand. Just keep it to a single paragraph.
The low odds are for predicting all three getting a BJ before the hand is dealt. The quite probable number is the odds of the dealer having a BJ with an ace up given that that the two players already have a BJ and the dealer already has an ace up. Since you know that is the case when you make the decision, the only thing that needs to be calculated is the odds the dealer has a T in the hole. It doesn't matter that you will rarely be making that decision. Once the cards are dealt you are making that decision. Predicting this event before any cards are dealt brings into play the rarity of thew two players having a BJ and the dealer having an ace up.
I said that the cards on the table didn't mean a thing and you should make your decision based on the count. Your statement below indicated you were considering the likelihood of all 3 hands getting a BJ and so does your confusion over the numbers.I take RA insurance for a BJ, and insure my BJ in positive running counts. There are 2 faces showing and 3 non-faces. So for insurance purposes the RC is +2 for Hiopt2 for a TC of +1. So, yes I would take RA insurance if this was off the top. My balanced ace side count couldn't factor in ace information if it weren't off the top. Ace adjusted Hilo would have an off the top RC of +1 for a TC of +0.5.
Think about flipping an honest coin. The probability of flipping 5 heads in 5 flips is 0.5^5 = 3.125%, the probability of flipping a fifth head after flipping 4 heads in a row is 50%. The probability of the dealer having a BJ depends upon how many ten cards are left in the deck, not whether you and/or some one else got a BJ.
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