1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
Did you find this post helpful?
Yes |
No
Originally Posted by
Three
I didn't want to get into theo makes how much pissing contest but variance is more interesting. My best upswing in variance was 3 long weekends in a row where I made over $10K each weekend. I was up about $40K for 3 weeks. I was just winning with an occasional big win while rarely losing and when I lost it was a small loss that was easily erased. Then, a month later, I started a bad stretch. I spun my wheels for 6 weeks barely making anything. But those 6 weeks spanned two calendar months and I was ahead $10K for both calendar months. Later that year I hit a bad patch where I lost $6K quick but it was bookended by bigger wins on both sides and quickly erased. This was with the smaller, less frequent losses and more frequent win approach.
Then I made some changes to squeeze some extra EV out and raise SCORE but it caused swings to go nuts. The next year I was regularly losing $5 to $10K in a weekend trip and was winning less frequently while losing more frequently and much larger amounts. I was way below EV. I finally figured out how the changes to get more EV had caused results to be turned upside-down (after a severe ass kicking that had me contemplating what I had changed I figured it out). After making even more changes to give up some SCORE and EV I was winning even better than I had before. Lots more wins with occasional small losses mixed in and the rare getting your ass kicked in a shoe, but the worst was much less of a kick in the balls and almost never happened.
Now the variance for the pleasant ride is more than the variance for the extremely crazy ride. I discovered variance is a long term stat and has nothing to do with indicating short term swings or what I call the ride to the long run. With one method variance was mostly negative (I spent most of my time way below EV waiting for that big run of shoes to raise me up to EV) and with the other variance was mostly positive (I spent most of my time way above EV waiting for a long spinning wheels stretch or a short steep lose to drop my average back closer to EV. Now this was not for BJ. But, in BJ, I use different techniques to get the same trade off of EV and SCORE for less frequent and smaller losses with more frequent wins. The effect on the swings and the way BR grows is the same. You tend to run way above EV only to be corrected to closer to EV by the same sort of spinning wheels or a very short but steep loss that is quickly erased. These corrections are relatively rare but expected.
can you expound on the tweaks you made change your EV/SCORE? I'm a casual player and I don't have access to the casino verite software because I use a mac (i don't even know what my EV or SCORE is), but it would be interesting to hear how you did it and if it could be applied to others.
Bookmarks