How Does a blackjack comeback look like?

[DoubleDownSoft21]

Really bad advise. You don't walk away from a big count. You work to hard to find the rare max bet situations. You can't afford to waste them. The deeper you go into the deck the more certain your results are for any TC. Zee would have you play through the bad run and leave right when the best of it hits which has him more often missing his recovery. More often than not a big bet opportunity will start out rough and end with a winning run as those big cards you are betting in anticipation of show up. Limit playing at a disadvantage and maximize playing at an advantage. The frequency distribution ratio of the two has more to do with success than worrying about swings.

That's great advice....if one is a robot. Most of us aren't, and even playing with an advantage of a great count does not preclude the dealer from getting those same high cards. And they often do. I don't believe in a one size fits all approach. Do you think sports bettors or horse bettors will bet endlessly if they are in a slump? Unless they are a degenerate, they realize some days its just not meant to be. Most bettors SHOULD have loss limits.

[refinery]

That's great advice....if one is a robot. Most of us aren't, and even playing with an advantage of a great count does not preclude the dealer from getting those same high cards. And they often do. I don't believe in a one size fits all approach. Do you think sports bettors or horse bettors will bet endlessly if they are in a slump? Unless they are a degenerate, they realize some days its just not meant to be. Most bettors SHOULD have loss limits.

Spoken like a true ploppy.

[Freightman]

Really bad advise. You don't walk away from a big count. You work to hard to find the rare max bet situations. You can't afford to waste them. The deeper you go into the deck the more certain your results are for any TC. Zee would have you play through the bad run and leave right when the best of it hits which has him more often missing his recovery. More often than not a big bet opportunity will start out rough and end with a winning run as those big cards you are betting in anticipation of show up. Limit playing at a disadvantage and maximize playing at an advantage. The frequency distribution ratio of the two has more to do with success than worrying about swings.

Only 1 exception I can think of, and you need to be sure about it. If all the goodies are behind the cut card, then min if you play all or Wong out if that's your style.

Further, if you have the ability to estimate overall deck composition, then waiting bets if all is not right in the garden, then blast away when it is.

[JamesonDetroit]

I am going to get it for posting this but, for my personality and psychological well being, I use session loss limits. Thus, I can see 5-6 max bet losses but not the 15-20 max bet losses claimed here. Losing more than $1.5k in a session really screws up my day and I hate playing angry or irritated. So sometimes, even when a round of two is left to play, it's "no mas" after 5-6 max bet losses.

While I understand and agree with the sentiment of taking care of your psychological state (I also don't want to be miserable playing, for the same reasons), if the count is up there is no way you can get me to stop max betting until the end of the shoe or the count drops back down. How painful is it when you cut your max bet to half because of consecutive losses, while count still climbs, only to get a blackjack or 11 to double the next hand, at half the value? I don't know the specific numbers, but I'm sure that when this happens it's really bad for your EV (don't know to what extent). It's the whole point! I'm willing to tolerate the shorter term upsetness of the situation if I continue to lose, but knowing I played right, than to deal with the _worse_ upsetness knowing I played wrong and only earned back way less than I should have at the high count because I dropped my bet at the wrong time because the losses hurt too much (or, even if I continued to lose, still knowing I played wrong). In the one case, I'm annoyed by my bad luck, and if it was major losses sure it bugs me, but if I lose because I played badly, then I not only have to mourn luck but I have to be pissed at myself for having played it wrong. That would kill me.

[JamesonDetroit]

Most bettors SHOULD have loss limits.

Not when they are playing hands at an advantage. If the count is up, the only loss limit should be the money in your pocket, and if you hit that then you didn't bring enough to the table or didn't leave the table to refill soon enough. Once the count drops back down or the shoe ends then fine, cut losses and leave if you have hit or passed a point that you liked, but DON'T use a loss limit as an excuse to walk away from a high count. Don't do it! This can't be said enough (hence the reason I said it twice in a row).

[DoubleDownSoft21]

Spoken like a true ploppy.

No, spoken like one who understands the psychological ups and downs of gambling.

[DoubleDownSoft21]

Not when they are playing hands at an advantage. If the count is up, the only loss limit should be the money in your pocket, and if you hit that then you didn't bring enough to the table or didn't leave the table to refill soon enough. Once the count drops back down or the shoe ends then fine, cut losses and leave if you have hit or passed a point that you liked, but DON'T use a loss limit as an excuse to walk away from a high count. Don't do it! This can't be said enough (hence the reason I said it twice in a row).

In theory, you are right. The reality is when a $1000 daily loss turns into $5000. The bill collectors don't care about high variance. They don't care about EV.

[BoSox]

I am going to get it for posting this but, for my personality and psychological well being, I use session loss limits. Thus, I can see 5-6 max bet losses but not the 15-20 max bet losses claimed here. Losing more than $1.5k in a session really screws up my day and I hate playing angry or irritated. So sometimes, even when a round of two is left to play, it's "no mas" after 5-6 max bet losses.

ZeeBabar, so regardless if you are up or down the equivalent of five or six max bets you are heading for the door, to keep your personal and psychological well being in order. If the session ends in a loss you become angry and irritated, and if you win you leave with a sense of happiness and joy. Maybe you are not cut out for this. Why are you letting your emotions get in the way of a session result that you already know is meaningless? If you were properly betting with a small ROR you wouldn't be thinking like this. Possibly what you think is the playing bank you have in mind, in actuality you are not fully committed to using. Other than that I agree with post #51 by Three.

[JamesonDetroit]

In theory, you are right. The reality is when a $1000 daily loss turns into $5000. The bill collectors don't care about high variance. They don't care about EV.

Oy, then that person is playing limits that are too high. Certainly he/she shouldn't be betting bill collector money, I'll give you that, but if someone can't sustain a bunch of max bets being lost without dipping into non-bankroll money then they should save up some more before playing. :-/

[DoubleDownSoft21]

Oy, then that person is playing limits that are too high. Certainly he/she shouldn't be betting bill collector money, I'll give you that, but if someone can't sustain a bunch of max bets being lost without dipping into non-bankroll money then they should save up some more before playing. :-/

That's a reasonable answer.

I just was taking issue with some others basically telling Zee what his risk tolerance should be. Every person is different in risk tolerance.

As for running out of money, I had that happen to me not long ago. I wasn't even planning on playing blackjack that day, but ended up near a casino with a few hours to kill. I thought I had a little more in my wallet than I actually did. It didn't end well, with me running out of money during a plus 5 true count. There wasn't much left to be dealt so I probably only missed a couple hands.

In another post, BoSox says (to Zee) "if the session ends in a loss you become angry and irritated". I would argue that this IS the reason for the loss limit. The limit is a point where one doesn't become angry or irritated, at least not for any period of time beyond an hour or two. There will be another day, and there definitely will be shoes with very good counts. I have a bankroll larger than $5k. But if I lost $5k in one day? At this point in time, it would be devastating. Maybe at some point I will have banked enough money that a $5k daily loss would be relatively painless. But I believe one has to build up to that.

[JamesonDetroit]

In another post, BoSox says (to Zee) "if the session ends in a loss you become angry and irritated". I would argue that this IS the reason for the loss limit. The limit is a point where one doesn't become angry or irritated, at least not for any period of time beyond an hour or two. There will be another day, and there definitely will be shoes with very good counts. I have a bankroll larger than $5k. But if I lost $5k in one day? At this point in time, it would be devastating. Maybe at some point I will have banked enough money that a $5k daily loss would be relatively painless. But I believe one has to build up to that.

I'm not arguing that it would be painless. Big losses bother me too (temporarily), I think that is natural and fine. But giving up the main advantage you have is going to kill your EV and make you far more likely to go bust. Which is more painful? A loss due to bad luck or the results of bad luck plus playing wrong? I'll take the former any day of the week (and take a few days to recover, perhaps; nothing wrong with that). The second would make me reconsider whether I could be doing this. I'm not saying others should in that position; like you say, to each his/her own. But I can't imagine feeling any other way.

Anecdotes in themselves are not evidence, obviously, but for what it is worth it has happened to me more than once that I have been a few thousand in the hole at a table and I felt like walking, but the count was so damn high that I couldn't justify it. I kept buying in and sure enough over the next several hands I was back in the net positive, or close to it. I shudder to imagine if I had walked or lowered my bet in that spot at those times. That would have taken me weeks, months, or perhaps never (due to realizing what a bad call it was) to recover. I also have had times where I have been a few thousand in the hole at a table and the count was high and I got to the end of the shoe and that was that. Then I walked. And it sucked. But at least I knew it was due to bad luck. And mind you, those few thousands were painful portions of my bankroll.

It just isn't good advice to have a loss limit and follow it at high counts. I'm sorry, I'm generally a pretty passive member of these boards (or at least, non-aggressive) but this is something that is so damn important.

Now I'll go back to my usual chill self.

[DoubleDownSoft21]

For me the loss limit has only come in the middle of the high shoe count the one time I referenced above. But that was actually at a number lower than what I consider my limit. It was just a matter of me running out of money. The limit usually comes into play between shoes. Maybe I figure I could play until 3:30 or 4:00 but I hit my loss limit at 1:30. I'm out the door. There have been instances when I didn't spread as much as I wanted to during good counts, but that was either due to money limits or fears that I may have been cheated.

[ZeeBabar]

Really bad advise. You don't walk away from a big count. You work to hard to find the rare max bet situations. You can't afford to waste them. The deeper you go into the deck the more certain your results are for any TC. Zee would have you play through the bad run and leave right when the best of it hits which has him more often missing his recovery. More often than not a big bet opportunity will start out rough and end with a winning run as those big cards you are betting in anticipation of show up. Limit playing at a disadvantage and maximize playing at an advantage. The frequency distribution ratio of the two has more to do with success than worrying about swings.

First, dont distort my response. I was NOT giving advice, just indicating what I do. In my case, I am NOT a professional player, play for both fun and some $$. I dont risk my mental well being, dont want t return to family in a sour mood and so I quit at a certain losing point. Its very very rare that I have even gotten to the point where I have lost 5-6 max bets. If I have lost 6 max bets in a row (6 x $200 or $1200), winning that last max bet or two and winning back $400 is not worth MY mental health and stress so I choose to walk away when I am down around $1.5k or less in a day. Again, I have repeated it often. Each of us is different psychologically and emotionally and we have to set our own limits.