I can't imagine walking away from a positive shoe even with heat. I might try more aggressive camouflage, but I don't think any level of heat, besides being actually asked to leave the table would get me out of there. I definitely would get out as soon as the count dropped (and lost a couple min bets in a row, to allow for "guess my luck has run out" type thing) or shuffle came though. Might leave a big bet out (if I won last hand) at start of new shoe for longevity-interested camouflage (or split it to two hands), and get out shortly thereafter, depending on what the heat looked like.
Playing 4D one deck cut, stand 17 DS RSA is not a bad game.
The max bet of $25 makes it very hard to win meaningful money.
If you bet starting at TC 0 5,10,15,25,25,.......... then you will have about a .7% advantage (.07 per round or $7 hour at 100hph). With a 2,000 bank your RoR will be about 20% but go down to around 8% if you can add another 1,000.
These stats are assuming you are playing perfect basic strategy in all situations and using the sweet 16 indexes. If this is not true then your results will vary and may vary a lot. Making errors at small minimum bets hurts but making errors at TC2 and higher is devastating.
N0 for the game is about 40,000 rounds, so it is a long way to the promised land.
Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!
The low max bet isn't actually an issue, as OP is a first time counter so shouldn't be putting more than $25 on the felt per hand until he isn't quite so green. In fact his best play would be to practice at home for a hundred hours first. The first step is to memorize basic strategy, then learn how to count, then practice at home with a shoe, discard tray, and four decks, dealing to yourself and making your basic strategy decisions while keeping count. Once you can keep count and play then you want to memorize the top 20 or so most important deviations from basic strategy as well as how to convert the running count into the true count.
The idea is you want to be able to implement the strategy close to perfectly before you put your own money into play.
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