Sports Betting - Football H2H

[Bushie]

Hello all.

I have a question that is unrelated to BJ per se but still related to AP, specifically the odds metric used in head-to-head betting in football (AFL on this case).

Firstly, does anyone know how bookies determine the odds in what is theoretically a 50/50 chance? I say theoretically because both teams have the same amount of players and abide by the same rules. I'm not sure how you would go about assessing this mathematically however?

Secondly, the payouts and always riding on whichever side has the larger payout. Now the payouts aren't too bad depending on the matchup and the bookie. It can be often 2:1 or as high as 14:1 or 15:1. How would you go about determining the edge advantage/disadvantage over a season by riding on whatever side has the highest potential payout each round?

I appreciate any replies.

[Koz84]

Hi Bushie,

Not wanting to hijack your post - but have an interesting +EV opportunity for you (and any Australian sports bettor) regarding Sportsbet's current promotion, 'Wheel of fortunate punters.'

Basically, at 5pm this Friday, a wheel will be spun and wherever it lands, that team will be paid out automatically, up to $500 per market.

Currently, St Kilda and Carlton are $10.50, and $11.50, respectively (subject to change). This gives you +46.6% in EV.

So 16/18 * -0.4 + (1/18 * 10.5 - 0.2) + (1/18 * 11.5 - 0.2)

8/9 chance of losing ~ $200 (you would cashout both bets if neither hit on the wheel), a 1/18 chance at winning $5150, and a 1/18 chance at winning $5650.

Edit: You're betting the max $500 per market. So $500 on Carlton, and $500 on St Kilda.

[Bushie]

Hi Bushie,

Not wanting to hijack your post - but have an interesting +EV opportunity for you (and any Australian sports bettor) regarding Sportsbet's current promotion, 'Wheel of fortunate punters.'

Basically, at 5pm this Friday, a wheel will be spun and wherever it lands, that team will be paid out automatically, up to $500 per market.

Currently, St Kilda and Carlton are $10.50, and $11.50, respectively (subject to change). This gives you +46.6% in EV.

So 16/18 * -0.4 + (1/18 * 10.5 - 0.2) + (1/18 * 11.5 - 0.2)

8/9 chance of losing ~ $200 (you would cashout both bets if neither hit on the wheel), a 1/18 chance at winning $5150, and a 1/18 chance at winning $5650.

Edit: You're betting the max $500 per market. So $500 on Carlton, and $500 on St Kilda.

Thanks for the heads up. Are you sure it's this Friday though? I can only find a month old notification link to it.

Also, does Sportsbet let you cash out 100% or 90% of a wager?

[Bushie]

Bushie: your question is too broad to really answer. It's kind of like trying to answer this question: How do you beat a Grandmaster in chess?

beating sports for the vast majority of people is not about making intricate calculations but about making wise speculations

First: if you're betting NFL football you need to know a lot about NFL football. If you know a lot about NFL football and you constantly check the matchups and the betting lines then you can begin to understand how the lines make sense.i.e. if a very poor team plays a very good team to bet on the very good team you will have to give up many more points than if 2 relatively equal teams were playing each other.

most of those who beat sports have spent years developing the talent to do this.

secondly, you have a question about payouts. the traditional football bet is against the spread and pays out 10/11. if your style is to try to hit for larger payouts you can look to parlays or on the money line.

the link is a spread to moneyline calculator for the major sports which may be helpful. you can google and find a couple of parlay calculators that may be helpful.

So, first read and learn all you can about the sport you want to bet on.

Then read and learn all you can about betting on this sport by googling the net and looking at Amazon's book offerings on betting sports.

Give yourself plenty of time. For quite a few that beat sports it took them years to become proficient at it.

GOOD LUCK


https://www.sportsbookreview.com/pic...-ml-converter/

Hm I think "complex" is more apt than "broad" it seems. I'm just kind of fascinated at the science behind how exactly you can determine an edge over something that is theoretically symmetrical that's all. Thanks for the advice.

[Koz84]

Thanks for the heads up. Are you sure it's this Friday though? I can only find a month old notification link to it.

Also, does Sportsbet let you cash out 100% or 90% of a wager?

Hi Bushie, when you're cashing out pre game you'll get approx. $400 back from each of the wagers. So that's where you lose $200 if either don't land on the wheel.

[bjarg]

I'm just kind of fascinated at the science behind how exactly you can determine an edge over something that is theoretically symmetrical that's all.

A sport matchup is very rarely symetric.
There is usually a player or side that is better than the other.
The golden question is always the same: how much better?
There are many ways to beat sports but the most common one for ML bets is value betting.
If you somehow can come up with a system that allows you to determine the probability of an outcome, then you can compare that probability with the IP of the books lines and bet on the matches you find value.
Unlike blackjack, there is no mathematical formula to prove before hand if you have an edge or not.
Understanding how sportsbooks come up with lines and how markets work is key in determining if a hypothesis is good or not.
A very good example of a simple and succesful hypothesis was Bob Voulgaris.
Thats how simple it can be sometimes.

[bjarg]

that's why you will sometimes find Don S; one of the top Mathletes in the country re gambling sometimes expressing handicapping, not mathematical insights into finding an edge on this forum's NFL thread.

You make it sound as if handicapping (and the bets that come from it) has nothing to do with math, which is false.

[bjarg]

yeah, I can see how it sounded like that but that's not what I meant.

I was comparing it to to the guys who feed 100 different statistics into a computer and come up with a play

the handicapper's play will involve math but the decision that this factor is more important than other factors and it is these one or two or three factors which will dictate my play is what I mean by handicapping

Perfect

[Bushie]

Hi Bushie, when you're cashing out pre game you'll get approx. $400 back from each of the wagers. So that's where you lose $200 if either don't land on the wheel.

Do you have a link or something to this wheel? I can't seem to find any reference to it on the Sportsbet website?

[Koz84]

Do you have a link or something to this wheel? I can't seem to find any reference to it on the Sportsbet website?

Hmmm, seems like they may have scrapped it this week. Not sure why, they've done it for the past 3-4 weeks in a row.

[Bushie]

Hmmm, seems like they may have scrapped it this week. Not sure why, they've done it for the past 3-4 weeks in a row.

It probably occured to them that there were some exploitable loopholes in it haha.

[BughouseMASTER]

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