Assume you had a choice between two blackjack promotions. Also assume both games had the same 6 deck rules and pen.
Lets say the first promotion is a 2:1 blackjack promotion which adds about 2.27% to your advantage. We all know you will get a blackjack about once in every 21 hands so you know you will receive some benefit from playing the promotion.
Now lets say the second blackjack promotion is more of a long shot. The chances of winning the second promotion are about 1 in 62,667 blackjack hands. However, the payoff is quite large adding about 34 cents of expectation per hand played. On a $5 bet that gives a positive expectation of about 6.4%. The time allowed for the second promotion is limited to a maximum of 60 hours spread out over a months time so there is a good chance you might not get any benefit from playing the promotion.
Which promotion would you choose to play?
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