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Thread: Question for you CVCX and Statistical Gurus: %W/L converted to Probability

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    W/L% in CVCX is IBA. Amount won divided by initial bet.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    W/L% in CVCX is IBA. Amount won divided by initial bet.
    Thanks Norm. So W/L% would go up from these sources:
    1) More bonus payouts (payouts at higher than 1:1 for a win).
    2) Winning more compared to amount bet on hands you don't double or get a bonus payout. (That is making stronger playing decisions. That means using a count with stronger playing correlation to more plays. The gain in EV for a playing deviation is defined by the slope of how fast EV accumulates after the index is exceeded. Two counts making the same decision don't gain the same EV from that playing decision. While a weakly correlated count might gain very little while a strongly correlated count would gain a lot of EV when they make the same decision.)
    3) Surrendering.
    4) Doubling and/or splitting.
    Last edited by Three; 03-15-2018 at 05:28 PM.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Thanks Norm. So W/L% would go up from these sources:
    1) More bonus payouts (payouts at higher than 1:1 for a win).
    2) Winning more compared to amount bet on hands you don't double or get a bonus payout. (That is making stronger playing decisions. That means using a count with stronger playing correlation to more plays. The gain in EV for a playing deviation is defined by the slope of how fast EV accumulates after the index is exceeded. Two counts making the same decision don't gain the same EV from that playing decision. While a weakly correlated count might gain very little while a strongly correlated count would gain a lot of EV when they make the same decision.)
    3) Surrendering.
    4) Doubling and/or splitting.
    I include WL%/IBA because that's what the old books include. I think Uston used TBA. I rarely look at this stat as it doesn't include risk and is therefore not of great value.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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