No I am not. The other thread was about this query as the OP:Originally Posted by RCJH
Now I think we all can agree that when fixing the sketchy English translation from Russian that it should read:
In one box there is 2 times more money than in another. We opened one of them and find it contains $ 100, should we keep the $100 or take the unknown amount in the second box? How do we maximize EV ?
Everyone else tried to change the problem to something else and say that for the other problem it didn't matter so it must not matter for Gram's problem. I laid out a slight refining of choices that should start with an analogous problem. Then go to the same problem. Then get as different as possible without changing the givens. Then change the problem entirely to what caused the paradox. Then we can see at what point the the decision breaks down when looking at Gram's query. Do you have to completely change Gram's query as everyone tried to do. The only thing Gram didn't specify was the one opened was chosen in an unbiased process that wouldn't make the smaller amount or the larger amount more likely to be selected. I believe it was intended to be assumed in Gram's query so I added it. Obviously if the odds of choosing the larger amount was high enough choosing the unknown amount would not be the right answer to Gram's. So does setting the likelihood of choosing either envelope to open as equal make a difference in your answer?
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