"Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)
Ok, so you mean that with more complex systems, you are putting up very specific bets (e.g. $325) and this slows down the game (putting up the chips, waiting for more complicated pay offs, just fussing with chips in general) where as more basic and blunt bets of $100, $200, $300 and such can be made more quickly and be paid off more easily?
(Hmm, I can employ this with REKO too and forget some of the more specific bets called for with my betting ramp ($125 for some bets) but I digress...)
So the argument you are making is really all about speed and factors that get in the way of it?
That would depend on the player. Hiopt2/ASC is easy compared to the count I use and I am as fast as anyone at the table. The way I do things no math is required. I just know the right play or bet. It is all done in my head by making everything a graphics problem. You see the multiples of the number of unseen decks and the RC fits between two of them. Elementary school math drilled into our heads what each number to multiply to get the multiple so when you zero in on the multiple lower multiple for positive counts or the larger magnitude multiple for negative counts you just know the what multiple it is. Likewise for index play. You see the multiple of the index that corresponds to the number of decks unseen. As for counting I keep up with the fastest dealer without slowing the game down. It is just a matter of practice. You are going to use a finite number of deck estimates. Seeing all the multiples for each is easy and if not a little practice and it is.
Answer: Any system you can play instantaneously and keep up with any dealer's speed. If the only system that fits that description for you is Hilo you aren't a very skilled counter.
I had a lady come to join my table after having taken a break. She stood in awe of how fast the dealer was dealing and how all my bets and plays were instantaneous. She didn't enter the shoe but rather stood there and watched. At the end of the shoe she said that's what I like about you. You don't think about anything. you just know what you want to do without thinking. The shoe was played in less than 5 minutes. Lightning fast dealers make life so simple. There is no time to get distracted and lose the count. That is my problem with simpler counts. My mind gets bored and wanders causing me to lose count and have to think for a while to recover it. Of course with a fast enough dealer that wouldn't be a problem. If only there were more really fast dealers.
I don't think it is fatigue. Game speed and other factors can be the biggest factors for results. I think conditions changed to worse later in the day. But you know better than I.
Whatever count you use you should be fast an flawless. If you are not you should be honing your skills rather than playing in a casino.
I love the assumptions people make to justify their position. It is harder for Hilo optimal bets to fall to fall on one chip increments because it has fewer bins. Unless of course you use fractional TC boundaries. A level 2 count would have twice as many TC bins so you would have a lot better ability to hit one color chip optimal bets. If you are going fractional TC's to force a level 1 count to be optimally bet with one color chip you can do the same with a higher level count.
The more bins you divide your count up into the easier it is to have optimal bets that aren't rounded to be practical. You use integers and play Hilo and you have 4 or 5 optimal bets by TC using integers. Using a level 2 count you have 9 integer TC barriers to have them fall on both optimal and practical bets. If you are betting 4 or 5 different bets with one would you think has the better chance of 4 or 5 integer TC's being both practical and optimal.
Let's say you wanted to build a ramp that you could play optimally without attracting attention on a 6 deck shoe with 1 to 10 spread at a 50 table and the standard rules for my region, S17, DAS, LS. Always playing 2 hands playall. Your BR is $50K.
You might pick bets of 50, 100, 150, 200, 300, 400, 500 which would allow you to jump a bin up or down without more than doubling or halving your last bet with the exception of 50 and 150 jumping 100. If you are max betting at Hilo TC +5 or +4 this can't be done without getting into fractional TC's.
With HIOPT2/ASC the simulator data for 6% RoR is:
TC<=+1: 2x51
TC +2: 2x72
TC +3: 2x148
TC +4: 2x217
TC +5: 2x291
TC +6: 2x365
TC +7 2x449
TC>=+8: 2x510
So you Bet:
TC<=+1: 2X50 (off by 1)
TC +2: Either 2x75 or sticking to the plan 2x100 (off by 3 or 28)
TC +3: 2x150 (off by 2)
TC +4: 2x200 (off by 17)
TC +5: 2x300 (off by 9)
TC +6 and +7: weighted average bet for combined bin 2x398, 2x400 (off by 2).
NOTICE THE ABILITY TO COMBINE TC BINS INTO ONE BIN TO GET CLOSE TO THE DESIRED OPTIMAL BET.
TC >= +8: 2x500 (off by 10)
Same exercise with Hilo but using 7.3% RoR instead of 6% RoR the simulator data is:
TC<=0: 2x50
TC +1: 2x115
TC +2: 2x243
TC +3: 2x382
TC>=+4: 2x500
Now obviously you bet moves are not going to be able to jump a bin without undo scrutiny causing either heat or quite non-optimal bets at the table when you bet the wrong betting bin but working within the system's data the ramp would be :
50, 100, 200 (or 250), 400, 500
There is an advantage of fewer bets but also the disadvantage of jumping a bin being a factor of 4'ish causing heat rather than a factor of 2 or less.
Ramp likely:
TC<=0: 2x50 (at optimal bet)
TC +1: 2x100 (off by 15)
TC +2: 2x200 or 2x250 (off by 43 or 7)
TC +3: 2x400 (off by 18)
TC>=+5: 2x500 (at optimal bet)
So any smoothing that could occur on the computer, which I could have easily cherry picked to make Hilo look bad but didn't, would likely be lost at the tables unless you feel increasing or decreasing you bet by a ratio of 4 would be tolerated.
Anyway that just illustrates the advantages and disadvantages of using integer TC bins with different level counts. This wasn't about EV or SCORE but to those that are interested in comparing the same spread and min and max bet the sim data says:
Hilo: EV $283.48/100 rounds, c-SCORE 73.89
Hiopt2/ASC: EV $330.33, c-SCORE 85.75
Of course practical bets are slightly altered from the sim as indicated above.
Advantage gain is about 20%. You are forgetting to include the gain in RoR with the gain in EV of 16.5% in the example I gave. I guess if you make restrictions like the same exact bets which would make the level 2 system a lot easier to pick off by making far fewer betting bins than ithe level 2 count would normally you could intentionally cut the gain to 5%. But you would only do that if you wanted to skew the stats intentionally.
Last edited by Three; 11-22-2017 at 10:26 PM.
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