Spanish 21 EV?

[All Clear]

Gronbog- I received your sheet. Thanks so much! I'll analyze it, and if anyone wants the info, shoot me a note on this page starting on November 7th or so (I need time to examine each cell, and am not a full time AP).

you are very lucky

Hi Stop- Yes, this is a big deal, and I disagree with Flash that this is just chasing pennies. This store gives overlapping match play offers at certain times, and is known to be quite generous for match plays. I saw someone surrendering and only losing the match play (was confirmed with the floor), and realized that this can significantly change my EV overall. TThree wrote about this store "Match Play offers can overlap. I was going to say you lose the coupon and are done but I have had stacks of more than 30 $25 MP coupons there." - and that doesn't shock me. I have had $150 (6*25) in Match Play myself for a single visit, and I am by no means a high roller.

I know the place. They have paid the bonuses for years. That said Match Play results have not been good there on SP21 and I have never hit a bonus using a MP. I am not sure how the math works out but I bet there are better options for playing the Match Play there.

Hi TThree- I believe you are incorrect, and with the ability to surrender and only lose a third of your bet, I would expect (and I don't just throw around these comments- I do take the time to research) that this is the best Match Play option in the casino, at least outside the high-limit room. If you disagree, check the store's match play coupons (you can't play it on a single number in Roulette), and tell me what you think is a better option. :-)

The strategy for doubling and splitting may also change, depending on whether they will let you do so with real money and for how much real money. I don't have that strategy, but could generate it.

Nice job Gronbog- that is correct, I noted this in the past, and I am impressed that you considered it. Give yourself a pat on the back. :-) For a defensive split, when betting $25 in chips and a $25 match play, you would want to split with the same two items- a $25 chip and another $25 coupon (this is allowed). For an offensive split, when betting the same $25 in chips and a $25 match play, you would want to split with $50 (this is also allowed) total in chips instead (in theory, you are "splitting for more", since the base bet has an EV of $37.50, while your second split has $50 on it). You would also double down slightly more often (perhaps 9 vs 5 in a neutral count? perhaps A5 v 5 or A4 v 6?), since you can add $50 to your original $37.50 bet. But this gets more complicated.... though I think the chart you sent me will allow me to figure it out. If you want my results for splitting and doubling, let me know- it will take many hours to set up, and I have a full-time job.... Message me here after November 7th, after I have analyzed all the cells.

A match play is not worth a full bet because it is surrendered on a win. The value of the match play varies depending on how you use it. For example, if you can bet a match play on a number straight up in roulette it is worth a lot more than if you play it in blackjack. Blackjack is one of the worst games you can play it on, although if you can surrender it in lieu of your bet then it becomes much more attractive.

Hi Meistro - no casino in my town allows you to bet a match play on a number in Roulette. Blackjack actually may be the best place to play it, when considering the options given- the standard place you are allowed to play it in most of the casinos, are on Blackjack, Baccarat (player bet), Caribbean Stud (ante bet), Pai Gow Poker, Craps (pass wager only), Asian Poker, Roulette (red, 1 - 18, or even bet only).... and with those choices, I used to do blackjack. Putting it on a Spanish 21 game where you only lose the coupon on a surrender is BY FAR the best place to play it that I can see.

That is more spot on. The new owners are giving better cuts but it is still hard to win there. Better but not good.

Without factoring in doubles and splits, for a matched bet to be no advantage to either the player or the house you must win one for every two you lose.That is where the -0.333 comes from. At exactly the -0.3333 threshold variance of zero would break the tie in favor of surrender. Not the -0.5 of normal surrender (win one and lose three). I hope I did that right. LoL

Yes, TThree, you did that as I did, correctly. :-) And we are definitely talking about the same place- there are new owners.... I never thought of that place as a sweaty joint- but it could be that I don't play as high stakes as you do. If you have had experiences there I should know about, shoot me an email. As a fellow Spanish 21 counter, I would want to know all I can to stay on their good side- I want to keep getting their match plays. You have my (real life) email address from before. :-)