I am ignoring any further posts by an obvious troll except one that answer why I can't make an accurate decision on 15v3 with 250 cards left in a shoe.
Don, don't bother, it will just aggravate you. This just showed up in my morning mail. A natural for the thread and the upcoming dining arrangements.
https://youtu.be/9WoM2bHfr48
You didn't answer the question. you answered what you changed the question to. read the question and try again.
Now why do you say I can't make an accurate decision with 200 cards left to be played.
Just a few that are obvious to anyone with experience.
1) A very negative playing count and a huge surplus of aces has me betting big into a poor playing count.
2) Deep pen, 1/2 deck remaining, had me make a big bet at a plus playing count but between the time I made my bet and my playing decision 10 face cards came out moving the playing count TC by -40 with any level 2 playing count from TC +10 to TC -30.
3) Playing the only DD table heads up with the dealer and it is near the shuffle but they won't shuffle up at an empty table. I either give up the heads up DD situation or play out the shoe.
4) Playing an off the top advantage promo so I am playing all at a decent edge.
5) Error prone dealer still gives me an edge at a really bad count.
6) Targeting a side bet that has a huge edge at that count.
Do you read anything I write. I have written ad nauseum that the art is not to fool them but rather to make them comfortable letting you play even though they know you are probably counting.
That is part of the game. You aren't trying to guess what the cards will do, you are trying to make the decision that will make you the most in the long run. Whether you win the bet that time is immaterial.
Why would you think I would say that. I am saying I can make a decision that in the long run will increase my EV over the other decision, if made every time the same count arises. Sometimes I wonder if you even understand why you do things.
I don't know where you got the idea you can predict the next card. It certainly wasn't from me. That is ploppy thinking. I didn't pick this 15v3 thing. You did in your deleted post. I am still waiting for why you think I can't make an accurate decision with 200 cards left.
You are so easy.
Last edited by Three; 10-24-2017 at 04:16 AM.
I ùsed to defend against social anarchists, misfits and racial bigots. In retrospect, only worth the aggravation if socially concious individuals rise to a sense of duty, as my father during the big one.
That aside, let's try hockey truisms.
3, 5 minute major for spearing
Moses, 5 minute major for fighting.
Now guys, eat some of those "Haynes" beans for dinner, and let out some of that gas.
No. I commented that your statement that you can't make an accurate decision on any hand, but you specifically used 15v3 as an example, without very few cards left was challenged. You delete your post and then act like the question was the value of 15v3 despite enough being quoted of your post to prove otherwise. I repeatedly don't take the bait to switch the topic. I still never took the bait but answered why you would still be playing at that count. There are many more reasons but usually you are not playing at that count. Then you answer your own question and act like I even once said it was a valuable play. You act like I even once looked at your bait when I never did. You have to wait for a fish to take the bait to hook it. You just set the hook when nothing bit the bait. Go ahead a show that picture of you with nothing on your hook. It is making me laugh. ROTFL
The first smart thing you have said. I am good with that.
I have learned a lot from this forum. Many of the people here have made me a better player. For the love of God, though, why does every informative post turn into a dick swinging contest?
To the OP, if you have questions about indices, PM me. I'll help you out. It will be simpler for everyone that way.
Someone has to have the best dick. The problem is in defining what is best. One guy might shout, "Mine is huge, look at how wide it is!" Another might say, "Mine is huge, look at how long it is!" They may both have nice dicks, and perhaps the best by the standards they are using, but they are using different standards and so they cannot come to an agreement. They also cannot see past their dicks to notice the other guy is using measurements in a different way. I say y'all have nice dicks--but damn, look at how small the casino's are! Now there's where the competition should be.
(Norm, am I being too inappropriate? I'm attempting to metaphorically get my opinion across in my somewhat convoluted manner.)
Damn Moses. The question had nothing to do with the value of the plays. It was about whether they could be made accurately with more than a half deck of cards left. You are the only one that has talked about the value of the play and that didn't start until you deleted the post that started the entire conversation in order to change the discussion because obviously you know you were wrong but you just can't admit it. Any count that makes sense to use has a high correlation to the playing EoR's of the ranks for 15v3. Neutral cards are fairly minor cards. Even the 8 is a minor card for the play. So any count would make an accurate decision no matter how many cards are left.
Again the only thing I have challenged you on or discussed in this thread is why you think you can't make accurate decisions with more than a deck of unseen cards. You never discussed the issue but rather set up a straw man of the value of the play. I guess deleting your post was your way of admitting you were wrong. But then why put the tread through so many stupid posts (from both of us) if you deleted it because you had posted too many posts in this thread already? Please don't respond unless you are finally going to answer the initial question that started this. Remember you have posted too many posts in this thread already. LoL
Well I guess you deleted another 8 posts because it is now post number 71. Or maybe you just misread the post number. This covers any count. I didn't even have my count in mind when I wrote it. The only difference between counts is in #1. Both an ace neutral and ace reckoned count would have big bets out but only the ace neutral would know it is a hit.
LoL. No. If anything, it shows the reverse of what you said. It actually says nothing about the inaccuracy of making the decision with more than one deck left. It does say making an accurate decision in Reno SD is foolish but in games with more cards to start you can usually hit this hand and nobody bats an eye.
Again the question is: why did you say you can't make an accurate decision on 15v3 with more than 1 deck unseen? Just say you can because everyone else already knows you can. You made a stupid statement and got called out on it. Just man up instead of acting like a child. If you had acted like a man to start with, all these posts you say you are trying to avoid causing you to delete your post wouldn't be necessary. I get called out when I write something that is wrong. I hope I handled it better than you. At least I defend my position if I still think I am right. In a ridiculous amount of posting you still haven't even addressed what you said.
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