How much would you bet...

[Ryemo]

Infinite Gain! What a deal!

Yeah, I was salivating at the opportunity. I'm glad I didn't push out table max, even though I won the hand. I think it would have raised red flags. I was able to play for another hour and a half after the incident and wound up winning 4K before they gave me the usual MO "back off." I'm not sure I would have been given the extra time, had I pushed out table max. I think situations like this are circumstantial and all variables must be taken into consideration.

[Joe Mama]

Thanks for asking this question Zee. There are times I know what the next card is and don't always know what to do with that information. This is helpful.

Theory of BJ page 146 --Players advantage when first card is:
A +52%, 2 -12%, 3 -14%, 4 -16%, 5 -19%, 6 -18%, 7 -17%, 8 -9%, 9 0%, 10 +13%

[NotEnoughHeat]

I had a situation where the dealer made an error, so the pit boss anounced that the next hand would be a "free hand." Meaning, we had the option to pull out of the hand if we didn't like our cards.

This probably had half of us drooling. I've seen mistakes happen during the deal which would give us the option to pull out, but knowing you have the option before you bet... oh man. I'd bet that big regardless of the count. It would be helpful to know which hands are favorites to win but even if you didn't, you could just hope for an obvious favorite and pull back if not.

[ZeeBabar]

This probably had half of us drooling. I've seen mistakes happen during the deal which would give us the option to pull out, but knowing you have the option before you bet... oh man. I'd bet that big regardless of the count. It would be helpful to know which hands are favorites to win but even if you didn't, you could just hope for an obvious favorite and pull back if not.

So, given a free shot, you place a big bet, you get a hand of 19. Count is Zero. Do you pull bet back if

a. Dealer's up card is Ace?
d. Dealers upcard is 10?
c. Dealers up card is 9?

Count is TC+5

You have a 20, dealer has a 10 up (might have an Ace in the hole), what would you do?

[DSchles]

"So, given a free shot, you place a big bet, you get a hand of 19. Count is Zero. Do you pull bet back if"

a. Dealer's upcard is Ace?

Yes.

b. Dealer's upcard is 10?

Yes.

c. Dealer's up card is 9?

No.

Count is TC+5

"You have a 20, dealer has a 10 up (might have an Ace in the hole), what would you do?"

Play the hand, for sure.

Don

[NotEnoughHeat]

There's lots of knowledge that would benefit these types of decisions (such as knowing the EV of a variety of hand-upcard-count combos).

However, you would probably have to work with whatever you knew at the time since in I would imagine no one would bother to do much research into this since you can't really expect to happen. It's an interesting pit call you might never encounter again.

The best info you would likely have on hand is the EV for hand-upcard combinations which has been used in certain scenarios for such as scavenging, odd bonuses and exploits. Or you might know a bunch of random blackjack stats out of curiosity.

[Dog Hand]

There's lots of knowledge that would benefit these types of decisions (such as knowing the EV of a variety of hand-upcard-count combos).

However, you would probably have to work with whatever you knew at the time since in I would imagine no one would bother to do much research into this since you can't really expect to happen. It's an interesting pit call you might never encounter again.

The best info you would likely have on hand is the EV for hand-upcard combinations which has been used in certain scenarios for such as scavenging, odd bonuses and exploits. Or you might know a bunch of random blackjack stats out of curiosity.

NotEnoughHeat,

As a matter of fact, I have analyzed this precise scenario for a 6D H17 game, and published the results over at BJ21. If you have GC access, you can read the post here: http://bj21.com/greenchip/archives/P...cgi?read=21208.

As for ZeeBabar's questions, the answers from that same link are as follows:

So, given a free shot, you place a big bet, you get a hand of 19. Count is Zero. Do you pull bet back if

a. Dealer's up card is Ace?
If the dealer has not checked for BJ, then pull your bet back. If she has checked and does not have a BJ, then play the hand.

b. Dealers upcard is 10?
If the dealer has not checked for BJ, then pull your bet back. If she has checked and does not have a BJ, the HiLo index is +5, so for zero, play the hand.

c. Dealers up card is 9?
Play the hand.

Count is TC+5

You have a 20, dealer has a 10 up (might have an Ace in the hole), what would you do?
Play the hand.

Dog Hand

[Banker]

This is an interesting thread (for a change ). So, may be Don said to pull the hand 19 against dealer's 10 for fear of dealer's ace in the hole? May be he should kindly clarify.

[pilotzone]

He didn't pull the hand because he thought that the dealer had an ace, he pulled it back because 19 is a loser in this situation!!


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[RS]

What would I do if I got a free-roll?

Bet as much as I can.


How would I play the hand (stay in or pull out)?

If it was an obvious winner to me, I'd stay in. If it's not obvious or I know it, I'd pull out. After all, the hand was a free roll to begin with. I'd rather pull back a +EV hand if I wasn't sure, than play a hugely -EV hand even though I thought it was at least decent. Of course, depends on bet (perhaps I couldn't get out a big bet for some reason), as I'd pull more aggressively with a larger bet.

[stopgambling]

just like casinos trying to get a free roll on Phil. LOL. BTW ,for a 13-14% advantage on a $500- $1000 bet you could ruin your relationship with your casino ,now that is more than just math.

[Three]

I have taken it easy, not betting my max but a high bet in the top of my ramp, with next card info at first base with the Floor watching. The Floor walks away as he is saying he would have bet table max. Obviously the Floor knew I was a smart player and knew I was slightly moderating my bet. He made it clear I didn't need cover because they knew what I was doing and allowing me to play within tolerances. With that knowledge he still didn't burn the card. He gave me the shot allowing me to know an ace would be my first card. I just didn't want to appear greedy.

Perhaps others that made a maximum bet in the next card knowledge situation can tell us if they felt it affected their relationship with the casino and their longevity.

[DSchles]

This is an interesting thread (for a change ). So, may be Don said to pull the hand 19 against dealer's 10 for fear of dealer's ace in the hole? May be he should kindly clarify.

My answers are identical to Dog Hand's. You have the hand and you see the dealer's upcard. As if the offer to play or not is not already generous enough, I certainly did NOT assume that the dealer also checked for blackjack and didn't have it!

Don