8 decks, H17, DAS, No RSA, RS4, LS, 80% Pen would you raise your waiting bet at true count +1 or +2 and why?
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8 decks, H17, DAS, No RSA, RS4, LS, 80% Pen would you raise your waiting bet at true count +1 or +2 and why?
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"between the conception and the reality, falls the shadow "
Paraphrased: T.S. Eliot's
The Hollow Men
Haven't summed, but looks like a .5 or 55 or so. For convenience, .5 HE.
Don't know the answer for you. What's your spread and what is your bankroll. Deck pen, which you've quoted, is definitely part of the equation, as is your tolerance to risk.
For myself, I ask myself, before I start, what spread do I need to beat this, and what spread can I get away with. At true 1.0, your even with the house. At true 1.5, you have a modest advantage. I'll usually go to 2 units at true 1.0, not really minding the fact that I'm trading variance with the house. This allows s further increase at true 2.0. So, fir example, a modest bankroll will have you betting 1 unit at 1.0 and 2 units at true 2, and 4 units at true 3. A more robust bankroll would have you betting 2 units at true 1 and 4 units at true 2.
In both of the examples above, when you doubled your advantage at true 2 over true 1, you doubled your bet. The first example is a more conservative approach. The second example breaks even at true 1, but is far more aggressive at true 2.
One further point is that ramping has to be quicker for poor deck pen, and can tolerate conservatism at better pen.
Adjust for actual house edge as required. Hope this helps.
At $15 min., I'll go to $20 at little over TC +1 -- keeps the $2.50 chips at a minimum. and does not look like a counter's stereotypical ramp. Ramp up in bets divisible by 10 from there. At $25 min.. do the same with $30 if I happen to have some red chips. At $10, start ramp at $20 at about TC 1.5+.
True if all you knew was Hi Low and used no index plays at all, Freightman, do you ever look at the chapter 10 charts in BJ Attack 3 ?
Wrong!
When you say "In both of the examples above, when you doubled your advantage at true 2 over true 1,"
In the example game that 21MGR described using the HI Low count, the change in EV gain from a tc at +1 which is +0.29 to the EV gain from a tc at +2 which is + 0.87 is a hell of a lot more than doubling his advantage. My numbers are from chapter 10 in Don S book which also takes the I18 and Fab4 into account, that 21 MGR knows as well as yourself.
Last edited by BoSox; 12-18-2016 at 01:53 AM.
Bosox
Excellent points above. I'm not in my own home right now, so not sure, though I think Don's standard is as you imply, that his charts include the I18 calculations. My comments do not reflect index play.
I still goof after I've clarified, since my gain at true 2 over 1 is infinite, and that my gain of true 3 over 2 is now double. The interesting point which is now raised in the totality of the comments above, is some of the value of index play over basic.
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