Originally Posted by
DSchles
Risk of ruin has NOTHING whatsoever to do with doubling the bank. ZERO.
Since I virtually wrote the book on the subject and have explained everything in the most minute detail in BJA3, it sickens me to have Tthree preach about what I do and don't know about the subject, but, in any event, I'll try again: ROR is the probability that you will lose your entire bankroll if you enunciate a bet ramp and continue to use that same ramp until you either theoretically win all the money in the world or go broke trying. Naturally, it is stated only once, at the start of your endeavor, and refers to what I have just written. So, if ROR = 13.5%, and 15 players embark on the above endeavor, on average, two will lose their entire bank, while 13 will get rich ... eventually.
It goes without saying (WHICH IS WHY I DON'T BOTHER TO SAY IT!!!), that as your bankroll fluctuates, your new ROR, going forward from that point, fluctuates as well. Most people don't bother to reassess their RORs after each bet, but rather at significant thresholds, such as when they have lost, say, 50% of their original bank. If you then decide, for example, to cut your original stakes in half, then from that point forward, you reestablish your original ROR. Again, all of this is stated ad nauseam in BJA3, with myriad charts, tables, and formulas, and it shouldn't have to be restated every time someone talks about the subject here. As far as Tthree's thinking that I don't understand this, let me puke right now.
If, instead of waiting for some particular threshold to resize, you were to do so (you can't in actual casino play) after every bet you make, and you are betting Kelly-optimally to begin with, then theoretically, your ROR is zero.
This will be my last post on the topic. For further information, please refer to BJA3, pages 111-149 (39 friggin' pages!), for the most comprehensive discussion of the topic on the planet (except in Tthree's mind).
Don
Bookmarks