Originally Posted by
Tthree
Yes.
Once late surrender is a given SCORE tells the tale here which means the decrease in N0 tells the tale. Significant lowering of the ratio of SD to EV will help. If you took the inverse, maximize the ratio of EV to SD, you have the square root of SCORE. SCORE makes the ratio linear rather that exponential which makes the comparison make more intuitive. N-zero is 1,000,000/SCORE. The reduction of n0 is a linear relationship that is the inverse of SCORE times 1,000,000 rounds. Let's look at the difference between Hilo, Hiopt2/ASC and at about the same RoR as Hilo optimally bet Hiopt2/ASC which shows the extremes of balanced counts for betting accuracy. When you talk about losing streaks you are talking about the short term so we will look at 3,000 round trips (Chosen to make -0.5 SD EV ~0) to make the math easy and keep bets the same for both counts. We will assume a normal bell curve for both sets of results. It is an incorrect assumption but a good approximation:
6deck/1 cut off, S17, DAS, LS, 2x10 to 2x120 playall, 10K BR
1) Hilo full indices (8.8% RoR): Win rate/100 rounds $66.91, SD/100 rounds $742.62, c-SCORE 81.17, n0 12318, CE $39.33
Trip EV (3000 rounds) $2007.30, Trip SD (multiply SD/100 by sq root of 30) $4,067.50
SD/EV 2.0264
2) Hiopt/ASC full indices (7.0% RoR): Win rate/100rounds $70.66, SD/100 rounds $729.94, c-SCORE 93.69, n0 10675, CE $44.00
Trip EV (3000 rounds) $2,119.80, Trip SD (multiply SD/100 by sq root of 30) $3,998.05
SD/EV 1.886
3)Optimally bet Hiopt2/ASC (8.9% RoR, 2x11 to 2x132 bet spread): Win rate/100rounds $77.62, SD/100 rounds $801.90, c-SCORE 93.69, n0 10674, CE $45.47
Trip EV (3000 rounds) $2,328.60, Trip SD (multiply SD/100 by sq root of 30) $4,392.19
SD/EV 1.886
The results at various SD increments and the percentage for the defined range.
-3 trip SD:
Hilo:....... -$10,195.20
Ho2/ASC: -$9,874.35
Opt H2/A: -$10,847.97
-2.5 trip SD:
Hilo:....... -$8,161.45; (Trip results from -$10,195.20 to -$8,161.45 happens 0.5% of trips)
Ho2/ASC: -$7,875.33; (Trip results from -$9,874.35 to -$7,875.33 happens 0.5% of trips)
Opt H2/A: -$8,651.88; (Trip results from -$10,847.97 to -$8,651.88 happens 0.5% of trips)
-2 trip SD:
Hilo:....... -$6,127.70; (Trip results from -$8,161.45 to -$6,127.70 happens 1.7% of trips)
Ho2/ASC: -$5,876.30; (Trip results from -$7,875.33 to -$5,876.30 happens 1.7% of trips)
Opt H2/A: -$6,455.78; (Trip results from -$8,651.88 to -$6,455.78 happens 1.7% of trips)
-1.5 trip SD:
Hilo:....... -$4,093.95; (Trip results from -$6,127.70 to -$4,093.95 happens 4.4% of trips)
Ho2/ASC: -$3,877.28; (Trip results from -$5,876.30 to -$3,877.28 happens 4.4% of trips)
Opt H2/A: -$4,259.69; (Trip results from -$6,455.78 to -$4,259.69 happens 4.4% of trips)
-1 trip SD:
Hilo:....... -$2,060.20; (Trip results from -$4,093.95 to -$2,060.20 happens 9.2% of trips)
Ho2/ASC: -$1,878.25; (Trip results from -$3,877.28 to -$1,878.25 happens 9.2% of trips)
Opt H2/A: -$2,063.59; (Trip results from -$4,259.69 to -$2,062.59 happens 9.2% of trips)
-0.5 trip SD:
Hilo:........ -$26.45; (Trip results from -$2,060.20 to -$26.45 happens 15.0% of trips)
Ho2/ASC: $120.78; (Trip results from -$1,878.25 to +$120.78 happens 15.0% of trips)
Opt H2/A: $132.51; (Trip results from -$2,063.59 to +$132.51 happens 15.0% of trips)
0 trip SD:
Hilo:....... $2,007.30; (Trip results from -$26.45 to +$2,007.30 happens 19.1% of trips)
Ho2/ASC: $2,119.80; (Trip results from $120.78 to $2,117.80 happens 19.1% of trips)
Opt H2/A: $2,328.60; (Trip results from $132.51 to $2,328.60 happens 19.1% of trips)
+0.5 trip SD:
Hilo:....... $4,041.05; (Trip results from $2,007.05 to $4,041.05 happens 19.1% of trips)
Ho2/ASC: $4,118.25; (Trip results from $2,119.80 to $4,118.25 happens 19.1% of trips)
Opt H2/A: $4,524.70; (Trip results from $2,328.60 to $4,524.70 happens 19.1% of trips)
+1.0 trip SD:
Hilo:....... $6,074.80; (Trip results from $4,041.05 to $6,074.80 happens 15.0% of trips)
Ho2/ASC: $6,117.85; (Trip results from $4,118.25 to $6,117.85 happens 15.0% of trips)
Opt H2/A: $6,720.79; (Trip results from $4,524.70 to $6,720.79 happens 15.0% of trips)
+1.5 trip SD:
Hilo:....... $8,108.55; (Trip results from $6,074.80 to $8,108.55 happens 9.2% of trips)
Ho2/ASC: $8,116.88; (Trip results from $6,117.85 to $8,116.88 happens 9.2% of trips)
Opt H2/A: $8,916.89; (Trip results from $6,720.79 to $8,916.89 happens 9.2% of trips)
+2.0 trip SD:
Hilo:....... $10,142.30; (Trip results from $8,108.55 to $10,142.30 happens 4.4% of trips)
Ho2/ASC: $10,115.90; (Trip results from $8,116.88 to $10,115.90 happens 4.4% of trips)
Opt H2/A: $11,112.98; (Trip results from $8,916.89 to $11,112.98 happens 4.4% of trips)
+2.5 trip SD:
Hilo:....... $12,176.05; (Trip results from $10,142.30 to $12,176.05 happens 1.7% of trips)
Ho2/ASC: $12,114.93; (Trip results from $10,115.90 to $12,114.93 happens 1.7% of trips)
Opt H2/A: $13,309.08; (Trip results from $11,112.98 to $13,309.08 happens 1.7% of trips)
+3.0 trip SD:
Hilo:....... $14,209.80; (Trip results from $12,176.05 to $14,209.80 happens 0.5% of trips)
Ho2/ASC: $14,113.95; (Trip results from $12,114.93 to $14,113.95 happens 0.5% of trips)
Opt H2/A: $15,505.17; (Trip results from $13,309.08 to $15,505.17 happens 0.5% of trips)
What you have to do for each system is see the likelihood of the losses and their magnitude and the likelihood of what would surround it and their amount won or lost. With the same bets you can see a small difference in ranges and small shift in each range into the positive except for the rare largest wins which are slightly higher ranges for Hilo. It will make a small difference in swings but not enough for you to notice much. By going to optimal bets at about the same RoR for Ho2/ASC the wins are larger but so are the losses but to a lesser degree. For both Hiopt/ASC approaches the trip win percentage is about 70%. For Hilo the trip win percentage is about 68%. If you take the gain from switching as reduced RoR the losses are always less for Hopt2/ASC compared to Hilo. If you bet optimally the swings are greater but negative swings are corrected for faster. Without going beyond traditional counts swing control is modest. Small changes in likelihood to win or lose and modest changes in amounts won or lost. As you can see the biggest change for amount of win or loss is optimally bet Hiopt2/ASC. But if you are losing your hands losses will be greater than Hilo so the answer for that is it will make losing streaks have a higher magnitude but recovery will be more likely to come sooner and it should take less time. Also you are more likely to be posting large wins before the losing streak happened. The increased likelihood of a losing streak being surrounded by large wins can ease the pain when they happen.
Most people including me often misuse the term variance. I will address swings which I think is what you are referring to rather than variance. Deeper pen will cause larger swings. That includes downswings.
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