Losing Streak - Suggestions?

[Bigdaddy]

No whining here, but I'm looking for suggestions to break the curse.

I've been on a horrible losing streak that started two months ago. I've played 33 sessions (about 5,000 rounds). I've won 14 and lost 19. The loss sessions have been horrific. No matter what cards I get they're not good enough. I'm at -2 standard deviations for these last 5,000 rounds. Ouch!

I'm pretty confident that I'm playing and betting correctly. Even if I was a total idiot and was playing at .5% disadvantage, my results would still be at -1.5 standard deviations.

Suggestions? Should I step away for a time or suck it up and play through?

[ZeeBabar]

Step away, take a significant break....maybe 15-30 days. Losing affects our decision making and we might be making the correct plays but under/over betting or erring with deck estimation or TC calculations. Be on the safe side, give BJ a couple of weeks rest, read or practice now and then..

[Three]

Losing runs are great opportunities to learn and improve. You never know if it is variance or weak points in your game. The safe thing is to assume you are making some mistakes. Then you try to figure out how to alter your procedures to eliminate or reduce their likelihood. For example if you think you might be losing the count during calculations you can eliminate thinking about any other number than the count. Instead of doing math to convert the RC to a TC and compare to an index or betting schedule you can change the TC index to a RC for the current deck estimation. The same goes for the betting decisions. The index is simply multiplied by the decks remaining estimate to get a RC decision barrier. For betting see the multiples of the decks remaining and what multiple is just less than the RC. That multiple is the TC. This way you never stop thinking about the RC while comparing to the index or betting bin TC's. With practice you will find this much faster and more accurate than the traditional method. The way you make deck estimates you will only have certain numbers to use. Learning their multiples is quick and easy. You probably already know the integer deck estimate multiples without thinking.

You get the idea. Whatever you think might be a source of error figure out a way to reduce the likelihood of error. At the same time you can see if there are ways you can improve your EV or increase the certainty of results. They are usually the same thing but not always. That will help if it is just variance and will increase the certainty of results as long as you keep the improvements.

As far as actually playing. I get a lot more selective about game conditions (I am not talking about game rules. You should already be selective about that) while I am in a downturn. That will put you in a better position to post wins going forward. What tends to happen when you have a long winning run is you feel bullet proof and start to play conditions you might have passed on before. If you follow the latter advice you will win a lot more often while being more picky about conditions and eventually you will lose that discipline and start to feel bullet proof due to doing so well and play conditions you hadn't been. You do that until it catches up with you and then you get particular again. It is a cycle of human nature. With enough discipline you will avoid this cycle but I have found the cycle to be hard to avoid. After all it is human nature.

[Stealth]

I'm pretty confident that I'm playing and betting correctly. Even if I was a total idiot and was playing at .5% disadvantage, my results would still be at -1.5 standard deviations

So, you have a 5% chance of being at -2 SD and you are there. That is within normal variance. Still sucks. Lot more fun to be at +2SD and that also can happen.

Results may be skewed by errors and as TThree indicated you should review your play to insure it is sound.

Beyond that and as a seasoned veteran once told me when we were getting killed, just keep playing! This too shall pass.

[DSchles]

"Just keep playing! This too shall pass."

That's just about all that needs to be said. The rest is all bullshit. The game has inherent ups and downs. Period. Don't like it? Don't play! It's amazing how, when you're winning, you don't have any weak spots in your game to look for. The minute you lose, everyone suggests examining your game for flaws -- the same game that was winning you thousands just a few days ago. But, now that you're losing, suddenly you got stupid. Sigh.

Don

[21forme]

Just make sure there are no flaws in your game. if not, keep plugging away. Don't overbet your BR, and never get emotional or chase.
Also, don't forget that just because you're losing doesn't mean the casino isn't evaluating your play. Don't let your guard down.

[Ryemo]

I have a friend who recently got off a HORRIBLE losing streak. I think he lost something like 170 max bets. He had to re-size his unit/spread multiple times and I know his loss was in the higher mid five figure range. Talk about a nightmare! I know this guy personally and I know he plays a tight game. But despite the constant poundings, he just kept playing and grinding.

I don't know exactly where his BR is at today, but I'm happy to report that he's made a very nice recovery! I know that he's been on pretty crazy winning streak since his nightmare.

With that said, the only advice I can give you; keep grinding! Good luck, Bigdaddy. Hope things turn around for you!

[Phoebe]

The minute you lose, everyone suggests examining your game for flaws

Just make sure there are no flaws in your game.

:-)

[Freightman]

I recall my absolute worst losing streak, from a percentage perspective, was my first year of record keeping. Bankroll went from 4500 to 2500 - was devastated. I'm sure I had lots of leaks in my game at that time. Oh, I've recovered.

I've had my share of ups and downs over the years. My worst losing streak was 60k over 3 months. - it hurt. I played virtually at 0 ROR. BTW, my best win streak was over the same time period was significantly higher.

Faith in the math and in ones ability keeps you going. It took a long time, but I don think about the dips anymore. My biggest problem today is getting the hours.

[21forme]

Phillippe - Two months are a lot of minutes

[BigJer]

"Just keep playing! This too shall pass."

That's just about all that needs to be said. The rest is all bullshit. The game has inherent ups and downs. Period. Don't like it? Don't play! It's amazing how, when you're winning, you don't have any weak spots in your game to look for. The minute you lose, everyone suggests examining your game for flaws -- the same game that was winning you thousands just a few days ago. But, now that you're losing, suddenly you got stupid. Sigh.

Don

Don I have to agree with you that the game has it's ups and downs. Even Tommy Hyland has said that on some trips the team has gone $100K and they had to get more money wired in. Then they went through another $100K! So have the guys at BJA. They talk about it in their videos. However, if someone does have a few losing sessions I think they should look at their game.

For betting see the multiples of the decks remaining and what multiple is just less than the RC. That multiple is the TC. This way you never stop thinking about the RC while comparing to the index or betting bin TC's.

That's what I've been telling people for a couple of years. GTMA.

[Three]

That's just about all that needs to be said. The rest is all bullshit. The game has inherent ups and downs. Period. Don't like it? Don't play! It's amazing how, when you're winning, you don't have any weak spots in your game to look for. The minute you lose, everyone suggests examining your game for flaws -- the same game that was winning you thousands just a few days ago. But, now that you're losing, suddenly you got stupid. Sigh.

I tell you what. I have gone through this a number of times in my history. Each time I find ways to improve my game even though the losing streak is probably just variance. Guess what, the losing streaks keep getting less frequent, and shorter duration and less severe. Just because you didn't make any mistakes doesn't mean you can't play a stronger game.

Losing streaks become an opportunity to improve your game so you win more from that point forward. Just improving procedures to do your calculations quicker and with a greater degree of accuracy allows you to win more per hour by getting more rounds in.

[21forme]

Guess what, the losing streaks keep getting less frequent, and shorter duration and less severe. J

Guess what. This is more T3 fantasy voodoo. Variance is part of the game. Losing streaks happen.