"You're at TC +1. Not knowing how many decks, I assume you're at say 4.5/6 or 1.2/2 dealt. Assuming you use HiLo, the insurance index drops a little as the cards are dealt out."
Huh? What voodoo book did you get that out of?? You think that you use one-deck index numbers once you get to the 5/6 level of a six-deck shoe? Bzz. Wrong!
Don
doesn't have to be hc opp....witnessed plenty of newbe dealers who check nearly automatically...as "habit"...(hv seen ck even w/o A/10...lol)...oftentimes...when they have it....there's a "tell"...giggle, smile, swallowed canary look, etc.. ...like oh, shit, "i f'd up"..just have to be more observant....strange that she was dissuading you from taking though...perhaps she felt "guilty" of screwing yup at her job..lol... or, maybe she didn't like your tips...lolOriginally Posted by BJGenius007
This is why you should be able to beat sim results in the casino. the casino is ripe with extra info and the ability to affect conditions and take advantage of dynamic situations. I would probably take insurance but I would already have a read on the dealer. If the idiot shut up and the dealer flipped without asking you would all get the chance to take insurance after the dealer exposed her card. It has happened many times and the funny thing is some idiots still don't take insurance with 100% knowledge the dealer has a BJ. So you should have been paying close enough attention to decide for yourself if you thought the dealer was in the process of flipping the card. If I wasn't I would take it based on partial info. I might insure for less though.
I had a dealer check for BJ and the machine's light said he had it so he flipped his card only to find it was't an ace but a 6 (obviously not an insurance situation). The only guy with a hand that could be doubled without busting refused to double even after everyone explained that 5 ranks make the dealers hand and 8 ranks bust the dealer. He had a 7 and just couldn't double a 7 against a dealer face card even knowing it was actually a total of 16 and not 10. I told him I would double a 5. He hit twice and busted followed by the dealer busting. It was funny because the guy had not seen the card before the dealer flipped it back over but the floor said it was illegal for the rest of us to have the info and not give him the same info so he ordered the dealer to flip the card face up again before we played our hands. The guy still was an idiot twice in the hand playing it like his eyes were lying to him. First not doubling and then busting his hand against a dealer 16.
Last edited by Three; 08-31-2016 at 06:40 PM.
I found a hole card situation were the dealer exposed the hole card only when he had certain upcards. If I had to pick 2 upcards to know what the dealer had under they would be these 2 cards. The spot to see the hole card was not first base.
The guy probably didn't realize he would get a chance to insure after the dealer flipped his hole-card and was just making sure he got to use his info.
You need to switch the subject of your sentence with the object of the predicate. Boy I hope I remembered those grammar teams right.
Oops. They are not both nouns but you get the idea.
Last edited by Three; 08-31-2016 at 06:45 PM.
OK,let's look at the situation.
TC + 7 prior to dealing this round. Dealer gives one card to each player and takes a down card for herself. If I started at a TC+7 and EVERYONE was dealt a face card/Ace then the TC was +2 when the dealer dealt her down card. By definition, it is more likely that she will get a face.
Now, perhaps the dealer took an up card on the first pass and all the players again got a face/ace and the dealer got the Ace. Then the TC is +1 when the dealer begins to deal everyone a second card. While the TC at this point does not rise to the level of insurance it does remain more likely that she has a face dealt under than it will in a nuetral or negative count.
I stand by my statement.
Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!
Yes ,but you said "lots of high cards came out which further supports the likelihood that dealer has face under".
I agree that if the count is positive, it's more likely dealer will get a ten but it's not more likely just because faces came out on the deal.It would actually be more likely if small cards had come out on the deal.
I used to be wrong on this as you are now.
It doesn't matter if TC was +2, -2 or even -10 when dealer got the down card. Only the value of TC matters at the moment you play your hand. Assuming there is no card-holing involved, buy insurance when TC is above +3 (for Hi-Lo) at the moment you play your hand.
No, I was not wrong, read my first post on the subject. The post you are reacting to is my response to Andre regarding a statement I made in that post.
I would likely take the insurance because of the my judgement call regarding the guy who provide info that the dealer had BJ.
My initial post was clear that TC+1 AT DECISION TIME does not buy insurance.
Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!
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