Cutting cards when bottom card is seen...

[Three]

I was told slots next spin result is constantly changing and depends on the exact microsecond you hit the spin. I guess that info wasn't right if this article is true. It is hard to imagine how they got pinched. Either greed or an informant most likely. It is usually greed when these types of things catch up with the perpetrator.

[Bigdaddy]

If you cut any card into a given 1/4 deck segment that segment has a +4 True Count usually calling for about 3/4 to 4/5 of a maximum bet if the count is neutral going into that segment.

Thanks to the info that I gleaned from the analysis provided by Gramazeka (the "Statman post"), I can now conclude that the above statement is close, but not technically accurate. Here's how it works:

Let's say that I cut a face card into the first 13 cards of a DD game. Off the top, the TC for the first pack of 13 cards would be calculated as follows:

(1 - 1 x 12/103)/.25 = 3.5. This makes sense when you realize that you have a known RC decrease of 1 for the known face card and an assumed running count increase of 1 for the remaining 103 cards. Putting this in the context of a 13 card pack, the RC will be +1 for the known card and -1 x 12/103 for the other 12 cards. Then multiply by 4 to get the TC for the 13-card pack.

This formula will also answer the other hypothetical situation I noted in my post #52, but I won't bore you any longer with the math...

[Three]

I think when you reconcile BP's 3/4 to 4/5 of a maximum bet comment he is right. That is based on the idea that a Hilo player is betting max at TC +4 in the DD game. Not being a Hilo player I could be wrong. Perhaps the shift in TC frequency toward the tails of the TC frequency distribution bell curve that you get when going from 6D to DD would increase max bet threshold. My understanding is that TC +4 is max bet territory for 6 deck shoe games. I know this all depends on lots of variables and I am speculating a lot since I am not a Hilo practitioner. What TC is the max bet made for Hilo in the DD game being discussed?

[Bigdaddy]

I think when you reconcile BP's 3/4 to 4/5 of a maximum bet comment he is right. That is based on the idea that a Hilo player is betting max at TC +4 in the DD game. Not being a Hilo player I could be wrong. Perhaps the shift in TC frequency toward the tails of the TC frequency distribution bell curve that you get when going from 6D to DD would increase max bet threshold. My understanding is that TC +4 is max bet territory for 6 deck shoe games. I know this all depends on lots of variables and I am speculating a lot since I am not a Hilo practitioner. What TC is the max bet made for Hilo in the DD game being discussed?

I wasn't disagreeing with BP's post about betting or any of the other theory/strategy in his post. I was just providing information on how you go about calculating the exact true count in that situation, and that it is not exactly +4, it would be 3.5.

[Gramazeka]

I wasn't disagreeing with BP's post about betting or any of the other theory/strategy in his post. I was just providing information on how you go about calculating the exact true count in that situation, and that it is not exactly +4, it would be 3.5.

Help for you-

http://stattrek.com/online-calculato...geometric.aspx

[Gramazeka]

I was told slots next spin result is constantly changing and depends on the exact microsecond you hit the spin. I guess that info wasn't right if this article is true. It is hard to imagine how they got pinched. Either greed or an informant most likely. It is usually greed when these types of things catch up with the perpetrator.

The Czech man the idiot admitted everything. Workers of a casino would prove nothing. Smartphones aren't forbidden in a casino.

[bigplayer]

How many cards you actually wind up cutting is irrelevant. You just have to KNOW how many cards you've cut. If you're trying to cutoff 26 cards and are off you just have to know how off you are, did you cut 30 cards or 22 cards? If you are good at knowing how many cards you actually cutoff then you know when to bet and how many hands to play to give you the best chance to catch the card in question.

[Bigdaddy]

How many cards you actually wind up cutting is irrelevant. You just have to KNOW how many cards you've cut. If you're trying to cutoff 26 cards and are off you just have to know how off you are, did you cut 30 cards or 22 cards? If you are good at knowing how many cards you actually cutoff then you know when to bet and how many hands to play to give you the best chance to catch the card in question.

Knowing exactly how many cards cut and putting yourself in the best position to get the card is ideal, but there are a lot of variables that have to line up to get this to work (outside of team play) and it could backfire if you really push your bet in this anticipation.

Thats why I like the idea of knowing the adjusted TC for the next round of cards that contains your card. You may or may not get it, but it's still a great opportunity to raise your bet.