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Originally Posted by
Frank Galvin
2.3 decks cut off on 6 deck shoe results in approx. 61% pen. Definitely a grind, but with those rules, playable with a decent spread.
On the 8 deck shoe games, that would yield just over 71% pen. Less favorable rules, but still playable.
Mind you, I, and mostly all others on this board would choose not to play those tables (not speaking for smallcapgrowth however), but I have played with worse pen and conditions on cruise ships and ground out "fair" profits. Conditions onboard made me feel as if I was actually gambling, but tge math still applied, with huge variance for the ride. Realizing that it was more recreational action (I was on cruise ships) than my seeking out blackjack AP action at land-based casinos.
We have different ideas of what is playable. Having an advantage is a long way from having any certainty that you will win. People say you don't raise your bet at this TC because your advantage is too small. They aren't saying it is bad to bet with a low advantage. What they mean is the certainty that you will win is not there yet. What they are talking about is n0. That TC has it's own n0. N0' are proportional to variance and inversely proportional to EV^2. The variance doesn't change much but the EV is tiny. The square of EV will be even smaller compared to larger EV TC's. You divide by a much smaller number and the result is much larger n0. Basically a humongous n0 that tells you this betting bin is just gambling. You will never play enough in your lifetime to reach n0 even with the higher frequency of the situation making you bet it more than larger advantage situations. The same thing is going on with poor pen. You are betting much higher (using a huge spread) at situations with much higher n0 (less EV but about the same variance). You rarely get the really small n0 large advantage situations so even they become gambling because the frequency of making those bets have you take forever to reach the low n0.
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