Plenty of people obviously have a different opinion on why it isn't disclosed; because the math doesn't add up. So why does he keep talking about it? And you need Adderall. One minute you're adding an unbalanced side count to Wong Halves, then it's Hi-Lo is all anyone ever needs. FOCUS!Originally Posted by LoneWoLF
Didn't make sense to me either. I am not capable of turning nonsense into something that makes sense. I am, however, open to an explanation.
Were you suggesting that type of count, rather than bet size, is the primary driver in the level of variance? I've never heard of that. I'd have to disagree without proof. While a higher level count indirectly affects variance by affecting advantage, thus average bet size, it would increase variance. You could lower your spread a little if you wanted the same EV, but this doesn't increase EV. Maybe I'm misunderstanding the definition of EV. I thought it meant average advantage times average bet. By that definition, EV goes down if you lower your bet. So what I want to know is--how do you double EV, for a net gain/loss of zero, and cut variance in half? Which is the claim you appear to be supporting. If that is possible, I want to employ it in my game. And obviously, so do a few others who are asking similar questions.
NO. Listen, take it from me. I used to get caught up like hell with all these BS percentages of BC, PE, IC for every counting system, even very recently looking to add a ten count for insurance purposes, but I finally looked myself in the mirror, looked at the amount of hours I've played, played around with cvcx with a ten count, and guess what, I realized it's all BS. Believe me, in the past, I looked into side counting aces, multi parameter systems, all of that and it sounded good on paper, but that's exactly what it is, good on paper. Those percentages are just estimates anyway and in real world play playing real world hours, you wont notice a difference, and like others have said we don't know exactly how these systems will perform in our lifetime compared to every other one. You want to know what else? The only people worrying about all of this are people that dont actually play enough hours to see it for themselves or people that dont play at all but rather just sim all day in their bedroom. I used to be like you. I didnt play and just cared about the theory. Once I got out there and played loads of hours, it all came to light that the choice of your count doesnt mean a god damn thing.
BUT.. let me stress one thing again, UNLESS you're playing a highly dealt pitch game, there is no need to get caught up in what count to use or what side count to use. Dont fall slave to tthree and flash's nonsense about what how some miraculous multiparameter non-linear super count will get you more money and how anyone who doesnt use it are 'amateurs'.
My verdict is this:
Shoe games = HILO / from -1 to ALL positive indices
Pitch games (good/great penetration) = AOII w/ace side / from -3 to ALL positive indices / (7 side count as well if you're up to it)
Casino Verite is an excellent resource with all of the index numbers. CVCX is another must have to sim every game you encounter and to know exactly what you're up against regarding everything math. If you're serious at all at making money at this, these are the top 2 things that should be at the top of your list.
Regarding index plays, forget any index number that is -2 or lower for a shoe game. Look at the index chart and learn every index from -1 to as high as you want to go. You wont use the double digit positive indices much, but if you ever get a nice deeply dealt shoe game, TC's of 10 or higher can and WILL occur, so you want to know the proper plays at all times. If anything goes to -2 and lower, just leave the table. Also as a tip, when backcounting leave at -1 or somewhere around that range give or take and search out a new table to backcount.
If you start playing primarily double deck games, there will be much more heat and it's not advisable to keep wonging out at -1 because these TC's will occur much more frequently and will start to look rather suspect to the pit. Unless you're playing short sessions, you should NOT keep wonging OUT. You also wont find many DD games you can wong INTO, unless you're in Vegas, in which they have plenty of those, but they're counter traps, so unless you want to get flyer-ed all over town in a couple of weeks, i'd stay away. I suggest learning all the indices from -3 to as high as possible since you will get some crazy TC's in a DD game both negative and positive, especially in a nice deeply dealt game of about 70% or higher.
Single deck games are rarely available anymore so I wont even go into that much. They're even more sweaty than the double's so not worth it one bit and the one's that are not sweaty are unplayable with 6/5 and quick cutoff.
FOCUS on what will actually get you significant money, not pennies. Counting two tables simulataneously, searching out only the best deeply dealt games, searching out the best rules, never playing crowded tables, wonging in and out as much as you can. That my friend is what will get you the money in today's modern shoe games. If you're playing pitch games, especially highly dealt pitch games, than go ahead and switch to an ace neutral count. But if you're playing only shoe games, disregard all of tthree's and flash's advice.
Last edited by LoneWoLF; 06-29-2016 at 11:20 PM.
I would also like to get good at shuffle tracking. Everything else on here I do for shoe games already, but I still appreciate the run down and your opinion.
I have taken to moving towards RPC-variant because it helps solve the deuce-7 issue that hi lo has...
As for side counting, I am seeing it as more useful for 2 deck. And yeah, SD is hard to find anything reasonable...
You play no cover and have recently ranted about BO's. You cried so hard you said you were going to quit. Now you want to use the system every casino that knows a system uses? Well be ready for a lot more BO's. Most suits don't want to back you off. They only do it when you give them no choice because if they don't act it could cost them their jobs. The one thing that gets you in trouble is greed. You try to win too much too fast. It makes you perceived as a threat. The other thing that gets you in trouble is being so obviously what they are supposed to be identifying.
You bitched about the swings and the BO's. Rather than do something about both you chose to make swings worse (longer, more frequent and deeper) and ensure you get more heat. You should have cut back the greed and use techniques to disguise your spread so you can spread more with less heat. Add in some cheap cover if you think you need it. And leave before your win gets too large. You are now playing at levels that will get additional scrutiny. Back-counting, no cover, a too easily identified system and winning obscene amounts will make each casino act fast against you. People that follow the advice I have given tend not to see a BO until it is a lifetime win BO. If all you want is a flash in the pan career or traveling as you burn your bridges quickly, which is a perfectly valid approach that some use quite effectively, then play as bold and blatant as you can. A BO is part of the plan. If you want longevity you must use a very different plan of attack.
Too much money to be made using the system. Not much money in books. Besides I am blazing new territory in my approach. I have to do all the research myself as traditional wisdom usually doesn't apply. I have a lot left to go before I maximize every aspect of my system. Sims take a long time for my approach because 100 billion rounds is needed to get significant results. New avenues of investigation often require software updates. These require time to write and test for unusual events that indicate bugs in the software.
Why do you use BO's in its plural sense. I got backed off only this one time in a long time. Sorry but when you live 1.5 hours from casinos, it's either long sessions or destroying your car going back and forth just to play 2 shoes win some money and leave is just not worth it to me. Besides you say I dont have cover, do you realize the way im playing now is completely different to how I will play in vegas? The best cover is short sessions, not trying to fool the boss. Because like you said they will eventually get you anyway if you keep winning, and if you play rated they will get you for lifetime win. So you don't even know what you're doing because limiting your wins is not something you can always control either, since you might get hot in one shoe and kill it. To me, short sessions is the only cover that should be talked about when mentioning cover. At the end of the day if the casino starts to recognize you and starts to notice a pattern of you winning a lot and a couple of big wins here and there that you cant control because you basically killed the shoe, you're gonna get tossed eventually. The best way to mitigate all of that is short sessions, but right now living at home and traveling 1.5 hours to play, short sessions isn't in my gameplan, just isnt convenient for me.
Also once again you bring up the choice of count LOL. You honestly think that using a level 3 count such as Halves instead of a level 1 count is going to fool the eye? Don't you realize almost every single count out there all move their bets within the very same time? At least all the ace reckoned counts do. Ace neutral counts would not because you might get a surplus of aces time and time again and you immediately move to a close to max bet. But of course, those counts are obsolete anyway for shoe games and you're just wasting your time. You wont be betting like all ace reckoned players, but casinos will also start to become very leery about it and might think you're sequencing/key carding. So regardless, choice of count doesn't help you one bit and they either all correlate very much the same when its time to jump into a shoe or it will make them very cautious about why you just rose to maximum bet.
Last edited by LoneWoLF; 06-30-2016 at 10:07 AM.
How about this question. Over 13 years playing BJ I have made $150,000. Lets say I play a average of about 500 hours a year. We will round it off for math purposes. I play mostly 6d S17 DAS 80% pen $25 min or $50 min with a 1/8 spread. I have used the counts Hi-LO, Kiss3, UBZ. How much more would I have made using your count?
Last edited by Eye of the Eagle; 06-30-2016 at 10:16 AM.
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