I need help with the math

[Three]

It sounds reasonable, now that I understand what they did. But I think it's a bit confusing because it has no practical application whatsoever, outside of generating the numbers themselves. The EV of splitting 10s on your current hand is what it is--.57. Who is going to memorize and implement a sub-optimal strategy ahead of time? That's really the only time I can see these numbers coming into play. As a non-math guy, I can't invent a better way, maybe there isn't one. So if it discourages bad plays or encourages the correct ones, all the more power to it. I'm sensing this may be resolved. Hurray!

Have you ever heard of cover play? You intentionally make misplays to allow you to get away with more but it is very important to consider the cost of cover plays. For example splitting T,T when it is plus EV is one of the strongest moves in BJ but it can produce the most heat. To get away with it you may need to be noticed splitting T,T when it is definitely not plus EV but you don't want to give up too much EV or too frequently give up that EV in order to safely split on the rare occasions splitting is huge plus EV. These numbers are extremely important when planning how to maximize your BJ in every aspect including longevity. Do you really want to re-split it for cover? Is it even necessary? If you think it is what is the cost? Hopefully you see the value of the info. You should never attempt cover play without knowing the cost.

[DSchles]

"How does the variance equation factor into the EV calculation?"

Suppose two propositions have exactly the same e.v. but one of them has twice as much variance as the other one. You get to play both games as long as you want. So, you decide to apply the Kelly criterion, and your optimal bet for each game is your bankroll times edge divided by the variance. For the game that has the smaller variance, you will now bet twice as much on each coup as you would on the other bet. And so, my friend, you will get richer a lot faster -- even though the two games had the same e.v.

And that is how variance affects e.v.

Clear?

Don

[Freightman]

"How does the variance equation factor into the EV calculation?"

Suppose two propositions have exactly the same e.v. but one of them has twice as much variance as the other one. You get to play both games as long as you want. So, you decide to apply the Kelly criterion, and your optimal bet for each game is your bankroll times edge divided by the variance. For the game that has the smaller variance, you will now bet twice as much on each coup as you would on the other bet. And so, my friend, you will get richer a lot faster -- even though the two games had the same e.v.

And that is how variance affects e.v.

Clear?

Don

In other words, a strong argument for quality of game vs tolerance of game - which may well get you booted much quicker, though the point is made. I sure like that deep pen when I can get it.

[Boz]

"How does the variance equation factor into the EV calculation?"

Suppose two propositions have exactly the same e.v. but one of them has twice as much variance as the other one. You get to play both games as long as you want. So, you decide to apply the Kelly criterion, and your optimal bet for each game is your bankroll times edge divided by the variance. For the game that has the smaller variance, you will now bet twice as much on each coup as you would on the other bet. And so, my friend, you will get richer a lot faster -- even though the two games had the same e.v.

And that is how variance affects e.v.

Clear?

Don

I understand, but that wasn't a real question. It was in response to an irrelevant and condescending post.