It occurs to me that ...

[Boz]

Tracking your EXACT EV may be difficult, but it's still important to track. Otherwise, how will you know if your falling slightly short or EXTREMELY short of your target???

Actual results can be very misleading, especially to new players that don't understand the concept of EV or use the aid of software to give them a realistic idea of what their hourly expectation "should" be. For many new players, big losing streaks may totally discourage them completely; where as a few big winning sessions may empower them to bet foolishly and over-bet their BR as a result of being too overly confident. Winning $3,000 in a single session shouldn't allow you to over-estimate your blackjack skills, just as much as losing $3,000 should allow you to underestimate them too (as long as you're playing "correctly").

I know for a fact that I don't track my EV 100% correctly, but if I fall anywhere between 70% and 80% of my "projected simmed EV", then I know I'm on the right track. I give myself that wiggle room to make room for counting/betting errors, cover plays, betting cover, over-estimation of rounds played per hour, etc.

I suppose if you're playing recreationally, then I can understand the disinterest in tracking EV, but I certainly don't do it because I consider myself a stats junky by any means. I track EV (the best I can) because I treat blackjack like a business. Blackjack is an income supplement, so I try to stay on top of the stats as much as I can. I dread tracking the EV though. It's the least exciting part about this venture, but I do it anyway, as I feel it's necessary to any serious AP. Saying that tracking EV is "absolutely useless and a giant waste of time" is like saying a business owner shouldn't keep good P&L records, because it's a waste of time. That doesn't make sense...

For years, my results have been significantly above simmed EV. How do I know that if I don't track EV? Because I tracked how much money I made. All that tells me is that the sim is a simulation, and not real life. Simulated EV tells you reliably how one game compares to another. And it tells you how one spread compares to another. But to think that it perfectly mirrors real life...I don't buy it. I think simple arithmetic tells you your edge, and EV need not be tracked. Simulation is for experimentation or projection or other thought experiments, in my book. Not comparison. If I'm falling 'short of my target', I get unhappy. And I start wonging in and out more aggressively. I go to lower minimums with a larger spread. This is based on ACTUAL results, not EV. I don't go to my computer and ask it what the problem is. Obviously, I'm not making recommendations to others.

If you fall well below simmed EV, why are you on the wrong track? Doesn't variance ever put you below that margin? Do you normally play a billion hands in a session? I seriously don't see the point.