question for Don Schlesinger

[nicetrades200303]

Hello, Don. Sorry, I don't know why I can't pm you or anyone on this forum, so I'm posting this question to you here.

I don't have pai gow poker simulation software, and my search for an answer has reached a dead end.
Would you kindly guide me in the right direction or, if possible, would you please forward my question to Mike Shackleford? Here's a copy of my original post. Thank you so much.

1. A bet that the dealer's hand will push versus the player's hand pays 1:1. If there is a push and if either the dealer's hand or the player's hand has 33 on the top and a better pair on the bottom, the bet pays 2:1. For purposes of determining the 2:1 payout, you have to go the house way. That is, if either the dealer's hand or the player's hand has two pairs (33 to 88) with a K kicker or lower, the house way is K high on the top and two pairs on the bottom. (This is set after paying your main pai gow bet.)

wizardofodds shows probability of the dealer's hand pushing versus the player's hand is 41.5%. Using odds calculator, the payoff on the push bet has to be 1.4:1 to make it a break-even play.

wizardofodds also shows probability of two pairs is 23.1%.

Does the 2:1 payoff make the push bet a plus ev play?

[Three]

You made me laugh but wouldn't that be nice.

[Jabberwocky]

You could find an answer @discountgambling.net?

[DSchles]

Forwarded your question to Mike. Saw the PM just now. Rarely check that. Sorry.

Don

[Gramazeka]

Don, what is your mail ?

[DSchles]

Sorry, but Mike passed on this one. Said he was unusually busy at this time.

Don

[Gramazeka]

I have another question for you. I have one exel program for discount loss rebate game roulette. You help me? Please testing. Ok? I send you?

[DSchles]

If it's a computer-related project, my advice is that Norm would be more suited to help you.

Don

[Three]

1. A bet that the dealer's hand will push versus the player's hand pays 1:1. If there is a push and if either the dealer's hand or the player's hand has 33 on the top and a better pair on the bottom, the bet pays 2:1. For purposes of determining the 2:1 payout, you have to go the house way.

Since Don and Mike passed on this I will give it a go.

So for 2 to 1 you or the dealer need two pair or full house in the higher hand with one pair being 33 and a pair 44 or higher in the lower hand plus you have to push the round. So one needs 3 pairs inn the seven cards or three of a kind and two pairs with one pair being 33 and played in the top hand plus the other player needs to get at least 2 pair or 4 of a kind or a full house so that one of his hands beats one of yours. If he only gets 1 pair it must be played in the 5 card hand. Does this even ever happen? The need to pose the question should be all you need to know to answer your question. For this extremely rare event to change the average for pushes to a 1.4:1 payout (a break even bet by your account) by changing some pushes to from paying 1:1 to paying 2:1, you would need to have the 2:1 payoff occur 40% of the time you get pushes:

10 pushes with 0 paying 2:1 pays 10 or 10:10; or 1:1 with 0% of all pushes paying 2:1
10 pushes with 1 paying 2:1 pays 11 or 11:10; or 1.1:1 with 10% of all pushes paying 2:1
10 pushes with 2 paying 2:1 pays 12 or 12:10; or 1.2:1 with 20% of all pushes paying 2:1
10 pushes with 3 paying 2:1 pays 13 or 13:10; or 1.3:1 with 30% of all pushes paying 2:1
10 pushes with 4 paying 2:1 pays 14 or 14:10; or 1.4:1 with 40% of all pushes paying 2:1
10 pushes with 5 paying 2:1 pays 15 or 15:10; or 1.5:1 with 50% of all pushes paying 2:1

I don't know what percentage of pushes pay 2:1 but I think it is a safe bet that this bet is no where near the break even point of 40% of all pushes paying 2:1. I hope this satisfies your curiosity.