This is one of the best answers I've read on here. Most of the time after backcountin for minutes I could have hit it good most of the time if I would have placed a $100 bet. I'm doing my homework but placing small bets because I am practicing. But let's just say, the day after yesterday I won 6 out of 7 hands pushed one. That's $600. Half hr later I sit down on hi count I get 2 Aces. I Split and Hit 21 on one and 16 on the other. Dealer Busted. That's $200 These are just a Couple good Examples.
I can say that I would have doubled my BR by Now For sure.
Last edited by BoSox; 12-23-2015 at 05:47 PM.
Using all available deductions is tax avoidance. Structuring your investments and expenditures so that certain deductions are available is tax avoidance. Tax avoidance is perfectly legal.
The suggestion was to intentionally not report taxable income. That is a crime.
So, rather than tell you how overly optimistic you are let's answer your question.
I used CVCX to model an environment that is using HiLo with sweet16/fab4 indexes
I am playing 6deck 75% pen h17 ds
I have a bankroll of 1000 and I am playing a $10 game. (You mentioned playing 5-10 but we need to sim the bigger game to protect your bank.) We are playing at a 1-12 optimal spread.
Here are the results:
FORUM.JPG
As circled you will be playing a game with an advantage of .654%. Your risk of losing all your bank during this sessions of 3 hours is22.5%.
Your risk of continue to do this and losing your entire bank is 87%.
Your probability of doubling your bankroll in 3 hours is 25.8%, in 6 hours is 42.4%.
Practically speaking, let's examine one exposure to your bankroll:
We have a TC +4. You have a pair and BS indicates to split, you do and get more of the same card and end up splitting to four hands, three of them have become 11's so we double. So, now we have $120 bet X 7 = 840. The dealers has a 6 up, flips a face card and then hits a 5 and sweeps your bets. This is real and can and will happen. It should now be obvious that you can not do many of these with this bankroll.
Now, if your bankroll is replenishable, your have a different set of exposures and should use this to begin your research on how to evaluate them.
Hope this helps.
Last edited by Stealth; 12-24-2015 at 09:23 AM.
Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!
Getting back to the original topic, I started with an $800 BR, I now have a BR north of $100K, but I added money from my regular income along the way, so I don't know if my story counts.
Here is what I did when I started out:
I wonged aggressively. By that I mean I was the guy standing by the shoe game waiting for the count to hit +2 and then jumping in for a table min bet. When the count dropped to +1, I stepped back from the table. Sometimes I only played one hand an hour. And I really pissed the other players off by jumping in and out repeatedly in a shoe. This part really sucked.
I hustled coupons aggressively. I was fortunate to be in a place where there were a ton of new small card rooms. They gave out match plays like crazy. I would sweet talk the girl at the door into giving me a handful. If they were in the paper, I would get a stack of papers and have my kids help me cut out all of the coupons. I would get coupons for casinos that were not right in my area and trade them with other local AP's for coupons I could use. We even had a standard drop place behind a picture frame in a casino that was mid-way between us (very James Bond'ish). I would stop by and grab a playing card box full of my coupons and replace it with a box full of their coupons.
I found dollar added BJ tournaments, and read SW's book on casino tournament strategy. There was one place that usually had a $500 overlay and also gave out a $50 free ace coupon and a coupon for $5 in free food all for a $25 entry fee. Some people balked at using the $50 free ace (couldn't bet less), so I gave them $10 each for their coupons.
The card rooms gave out free used playing cards. There would be stacks sitting by the door. I grabbed a handful or two on every visit and sold them on eBay.
I had agreed to a $50 per week lunch budget with my wife. I instead bought a loaf of bread and some peanut butter and brought sandwiches to work, or just went hungry. The bulk of that $50 went to my BR.
I learned how to play poker and played $2/$4 limit hold'em.
Did I mention that I hustled? I did everything except whore myself at the street corner.
It can be done. It's not fun. Every single penny counts.
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