Losing streak rant - PART TEN - or rather, losing SESSION rant

[BJGenius007]

I didn't mention to everyone here that since attaining my last ATH in August, I am on yet another losing streak and have lost more than half my annual profits for the year. I didn't change my play, in fact I played tighter and wonged out of more negative hands to a greater degree - as far as the pit can tolerate of course.

I went and played last night and it was a predictably woeful result. I only played on tables where I could go heads up or against one other player. When I was heads up I did all right without really shining.

When I played with another player, I lost big. In fact I virtually NEVER won a hand that the other player lost. Whereas the reverse happened with virtual certainty.

There was one elderly ploppy who played with me where there were 26 hands we played together and I won one of them. That's right. ONE.

He was hitting 17's against a three, standing on 12 against a ten, asking me for advice but ignoring it, and winning anyway many times, until eventually reality bit and he lost all his money (about six thousand dollars that evening). Meanwhile I just lost regardless of what he had.

All this was a mix of Australian Pontoon and regular blackjack.

On a supposedly good shoe in regular blackjack, the count went up to +8 and beyond. I was dealt a 11 and a 20 (two tens) against a dealer six with two max bets in two boxes. I doubled on the 11 and got an eight. I decided against splitting my tens. The dealer then goes ace four and draws to 21.

About five hands later the same thing happened. This time the pit boss was looking at my play, and I got dealt a 10 (two fives) and a 20 (two tens). I doubled my ten and got a picture card. Then I decided not to split my two tens. The dealer goes ten five and draws to 21.

In the next few hands, I got dealt two hands of TT and blackjack with a dealer ten. She then drew a backdoor blackjack and I net-lost both hands. I went $1,500 in the hole in five minutes.

NOTHING will go right.

I plugged my results, session and overall into my simulation software and they told a predictable story. In my last 12 sessions I have won only two and four of my losses are in the bottom 10% of all sessions.
All I ever get is negative variation.
I can't believe anyone can get close to EV. I make allowances for play errors and adjust my EV accordingly. I'm not even close.

While I remain ahead overall, I remain at a net loss excluding my good start (23 sessions) and it shows no sign of improving. My overall results for the year are in the bottom 10% of the expected range. My net profit after 500 hours is less than a QUARTER of expected. And as far as I'm concerned it's gonna stay that way. Not bad enough to suspect foul play, but not good enough to convince me that it's a worthwhile exercise.

I just feel frustrated and angry. Not that this session was outside the bounds of possibility, but that my overall play is getting me nowhere.

Just sick of it.

I'm a very rational person. What other people do on the table should have no effect on the expectation of my play.
But I can guarantee you that I have lost a greater proportion of hands than the other person I was playing with in any given shoe for the last THIRTY occasions. That's right. 30. THIRTY.

There's a great way to win money: just sit with me. I'll be your sacrificial lamb and subsidize all your play. The house might even lose the shoe because you win more than I'm losing.

F**k this. Just f**k. That's all there is to it.

Just because true count is super high, it doesn't mean face cards will come out. The majority of face cards could be behind the yellow card and will never come out for the shoe. Also dealer can draw a few small cards to make 21 on high count. It happens more often than you think. Especially at the casinos sequencing or clumping cards. I used to play at two casinos. At the first one, I always won. At the second casino, I have a lot of big losses like yours. I kept losing my max bets when TC is extremely high. The second casino has the best rules and it never back off players no matter how obvious the players are counting cards. The rule is S17, DAS, DOA, LS and 85% penetration on six deck shoe. The only restriction is that you cannot cut the shoe in less than one deck from both ends. This indirectly make most people cut one deck thin or five decks deep because the dealer will make people cut again and again until it is almost one deck exactly. From my study, I conclude that the top deck is extremely ten rich. The bottom deck is ten rich but the very bottom few cards are small to throw people off. There is also one more face card clump in the middle. Also it may indirectly make seven, eight, nine and ace clumps in the middle four decks of the shoe. The two most likely scenarios to happen playing the shoe is:

1. Cut it deep. The first two decks (the bottom deck followed by the top deck before player cut) from the shoe will be face rich. The TC sinks to super negative. After two decks, AP go to rest room or answer the phones. Let the ploppies finish the shoe. No profits for AP. But no harm, either.

2. Cut it thin. This will be shoe from the hell. Most of face cards are behind the yellow card. True Count constantly rises from the beginning to the end. But the face cards never come out. The small cards make dealer hand all the time.

If you have the same experience like mine, I could share my successful counter attack strategy. If the yellow card comes to me, I will cut at 2.3 decks from the top (2.9 decks if it is 8 deck shoe), so the TC is rising in the first 2.75 decks then enjoy your fruit in the final 2 decks which are ten rich. Every time I got to cut, I won big. Note that you don't want to place big bets when TC is positive but rising. You want to place max bets when TC is super positive but sinking. Also note that you only deploy this strategy when you suspect the casino are clumping face cards. For me, I still play normally at the first casino.