HiLo vs Zen - I'm confused

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Originally Posted by moses
" ... you favor PE which goes against conventional widom. Can you explain why? Also, jumping from Hi Lo to Hi Opt II is quit a leap. But you made it years ago, if my assuptions are correct. Can you speak to how long it took you to perfect the endoeavor when it was new for you? Also, general speaking, how long does it take for a player (or you) to see the results?"

I never played Hi-Lo. I began (early 1980's) with the ZEN Count.
I switched to Hi-Opt II as game surveillance tightened up, and saw
the benefits immediately !

P.E. gets short shrift. Understandable to a degree RE: shoe games.
Betting Correlation is (or was) the focus (in days gone by) because
spreading 15 or 20 to one used to be easy to achieve. Nowadays ~
that is very very unlikely to be true.

When someone is 86'd from a Casino it is almost always the result of the
player being perceived as having a "greedy" spread, when in fact it may
be little more than a break-even bet ramp !

Playing with a 3-1 or 4-1 spread there are some excellent games that I can
exploit with a not-very complex, but very accurate, style. I will not reference
how much I earn, but I live a debt-free middle-class existence with sufficient
creature-comforts, and a cash bankroll of six figures, and several times that in
ordinary assets.

Often ignored is the FACT that Hi-Lo is the easiest count for a Pit Critter or
Surveillance Minion to monitor.

Truthfully, before I turned Pro was nearly a decade. I was earning "good money"
and had family responsibilities. I was perhaps ready to do so after two or three
years.

Moses' plays a so-so SD game with a pretty hefty House Edge. I do not.
His comments RE: P.E. are always befuddling to me as P.E. has always
been of paramount importance in a SD game. Apparently, where he plays,
Dealers do not preferentially shuffle on his raising his wager, but on his
violating Basic Strategy. That flies in the face of (MY) long held beliefs.

[KJ]

Ok first, KJ's 100k/year. I corrected this once, but feel I need to again to have the record straight. In the 'can't fight this battle threat', I did make reference to earning over 420k over the last 4 years. That was my total AP win over that time which includes over 100K in non BJ, AP winnings. That was misleading on my part and I corrected it in that thread.

My average yearly EV from blackjack is in the 75-80k range and my average yearly BJ winnings has been in that same 75k range. I have only had one single year of blackjack winnings that topped six figures, 2013 when I won $115,000. This one very strong positive outlier year was followed immediately by 2014 when I earned far less than expectation, 27k. Even averaging these two outlier years, averaged 71k. That's how averages work.

At my level of play, a level I choose not to go beyond right now for longevity purposes, I am right were I should be, upper 5 figures (from blackjack), in both expectation and actual results. Touching 6 figures from BJ as I have done only once, is above expectation. My numbers are nothing special. There are a number of mid-level professional players that earn in the range I described, some play a level one count, some a level 2. What count one plays is NOT what defines my earning's range, betting level is.

Even though I thought I clarified these numbers in the in the 'battle thread', I aplogize if my initial figures were misleading. In all honesty, I was going for effect and posting my total AP numbers rather than just BJ numbers had a better effect.

Now speaking of 'honesty', Flash I have shared my experiences, good and bad, including results for as long as I have participated on this and our previous site. And that includes years that were not so good like last year when my BJ results were 27k, less than one-third (60k below) expectation. Do you really think that was a particularly proud thing for me to do?

In addition, although it was a little before I started posting I have shared details of my early years at lower limits. 3 years of averaging 10k, and one of those years, only in 4 figures. That was below a fast food worker at the time and I was living off that money. Do you think THAT is something I enjoy describing? No but I have honestly shared my experiences and results...good and bad.

You can choose to believe whatever you like, Mr Flash. We don't have a 'proof test' where claims need to be backed up by paperwork, but if you want to make some sort of substantial wager, I am willing to submit such documentation (tax returns, mortgage records) to a independent third party, like Norm.

Finally I would like to address your final statement, concerning my being in six figures by summer of this year. While this statement is 100% true, my total AP winnings for the year did hit 6 figures early this year, which has allowed me to take a little more time off than usual and enjoy life a little more in the second half of the year, I CLEARLY mentioned that this was in large part due to several large non-BJ scores. A $50,000 hit on a VP machine by my partner and winning a drawing where the casino is paying my mortgage for the year, contributed mightily to what will be a 6 figure year for me. My YTD BJ figures are only just over 61 thousand, just slightly ahead of expectation.

You leaving out this detail, which I clearly mentioned, and making it seem as though I said that I won 100k from blackjack by mid year, is I believe an attempt on your part to be misleading.

Having had a couple days to calm down, I want to stop all this feuding. Here is my proposal. I will stop battling you higher count proponents at every turn, if you will stop voicing your opinion in such a definitive manner. Stop saying things like “Hi-lo is an ultra weak count” and “it's a falsehood that professional players play hi-lo”. We both know of many professional players that play Hi-lo, K-O, Red Seven or a similar 'legit' level one counts (I say 'legit' because I am excluding counts like A-5 and Speed count). While I was unable to convince such players to weigh in (for a variety of reasons), we both know them, not necessarily on this site, but we both know them or know of them in the community, some are BJHoF members.

So just stop with these kind of untruths. If you want to say that 'you believe' any advantage gained from use of a higher count is worth the effort, so be it. State that some of these things are your opinion, not definitive as you state them now.

So that is my proposal. Just acknowledge that some of this things you say are only your opinion and stop saying them as if they are gospel because they are not.

[RS]

OP, you're probably going to be much better off if you can count multiple tables (2) at a time using HILO instead of counting ONE table with some advanced count like HiOpt 2 + ASC. Instead of learning a better count, learn to count better.

[Freightman]

OP, you're probably going to be much better off if you can count multiple tables (2) at a time using HILO instead of counting ONE table with some advanced count like HiOpt 2 + ASC. Instead of learning a better count, learn to count better.

You need larger venues to make multiple table counting worthwhile - a lot of places don't afford that possibility - Vegas does.

[KJ]

Instead of learning a better count, learn to count better.

Nice quote, RS! I may 'borrow it from time to time.

This has sort of been the basis of my attack in recent years. I have done a number of things to improve my game and results. Things that aren't necessarily evident by only examining year end results. In my case both my range of yearly expectation and results have remained similar, but I have been able to cut the time needed to achieve these results significantly, from playing 55-60 hours a week when I first moved to Vegas, to playing 30-ish a week now, all while playing the same well tolerated betting levels. Some of these things are not compatible with playing higher level counts.

[KJ]

KJ and Rolling Stone: I admire your abilities to count two tables - even more? But if you have the brainpower to do this why not maintain two counts when this option doesn't exist? I'm not speaking of HI Opt II where a side count (s) are required. But rather two counts with equal total values where one declares high PE and the other high BC?

Because it is not worth the effort for me and I believe most players. Diminishing returns for the effort. PE is probably the biggest single factor that is much less valuable than it used to be as conditions have changed for the worse over the years. In my opinion, it is just not worth the effort to pursue improvements in this category. There ARE exceptions and someone playing only, or mostly what is left of decent single deck would be one of those exceptions.

I, personally am not interested in adding a lot of effort for improvement in the 10%, even 20% range. First of all I believe higher error rate is not considered properly when figuring such improvement, so most improvement figures are inaccurate.

But something like tracking multiple tables, and exiting one negative or even neutral count to immediately (zero down time) play a table of a higher count or advantage, can improve results dramatically. I am not going to say 100% improvement, because there are times, both tables are plus counts and you can't take advantage of both at the same time and also times when the second table may all of the sudden become inaccessible (crowded conditions).

So I won't say 100% improvement. I don't know what a fair number is, 50%, 67%, 75%? I don't know, but its significant improvement worth pursuing, in my opinion. What you are in a sense doing is changing the true count frequencies of rounds that you are actually playing dramatically in your favor and this is really significant.

[RS]

I'll expand on my post. I was in bed, on my phone, when I typed my response and didn't want to write a lot. I still don't want to write a lot. o.O

Anyway, personally, I do not play BJ that much anymore. I most play machines. I play BJ when nothing else (machine-wise) is available. For me, that means I'd much rather play a strong(er) DD game with deep pen and a moderate spread. I'm not so interested in grinding out shoe games for longevity purposes. If I get backed off from every DD game in LV, it's not a big issue. I doubt that'll happen (now I jinxed myself!), but I do spread my action around, play infrequently, and play short sessions, plus I tip [not sure if that matters whether I'll get kicked out or not...but so far, so good!].

I use Zen count. I don't side count or have any extra counts (ie: no insurance count). I don't count/back-count multiple tables. If I wanted to "stick it out" and grind out BJ in the same way KJ does, putting in many hours with a big rotation, then I would absolutely be doing that. THAT is the way to go for people who want to play BJ on shoe games. Maybe in the future when my BR can support shoe game spreads and I suddenly want to do more of wonging in/out.

Of course you gotta take into account whether you play shoe or pitch, if you can wong nearby tables, if your store rotation has any ST opportunities, etc.

If you exclusively play pitch games, then I would say -- ABSOLUTELY learn a more advanced count. But for most(?) players...who play shoe games, you're better off counting two tables rather than just one.

[B]Nice quote, RS! I may 'borrow it from time to time.

Go ahead.

[KJ]

KJ. What percentage of your success/income would you attribute to counting multiple tables? I think there is a misconception that you get a great deal out of just one table.

I don't know, because I don't think of it in these terms.

I have been in Vegas 6 years and tracking multiple tables is a technique I started doing after I moved to Vegas because conditions were ripe for it, many tables and uncrowded conditions. It's really been the last 4 years that I have made this a primary focus. And as I said, while my overall yearly numbers don't look dramatically different, I am able to achieve these levels with less play and in some cases have even been able to reduce my bet spreads to stay with in tolerance levels of some of the smaller type local places, that my normal spread would be challenging their comfort or tolerance levels, thus hopefully adding longevity, which is one of my primary focal points.

So percentage of success? I don't know the answer, nor would even know how to attempt to figure it.

[stopgambling]

To the OP card counting is just playing hands with advantage ,just keep playing a lot of hands with advantage and you will get ahead . All these so called level 1 vs higher level count debate is just gonna take you away from your game .80% x3(higher variance) is better than 99% x 2 ,but there are special situation where a specialized count /approach SHINES. As conditions gets bad ,it(specialized count) maybe a needed method to win with card counting.

[KJ]

I assume you're not playing at one table and viewing the cards at another table or in a mirror as some suggest. That just seems maniacle. Talk about the chance for error! Rather, you've found a spot where you can view 2 or more tables and jump in on the one with high counts. So I guess the answer would come from the approximate time spent banging away at one table vs viewing to capitalize on two or more. I think it's a relevant question when considering your conern for the benefit of new players.

Yes, I play one table while tracking a second. I am sure there is some degree of higher error rate as well as some degree of inaccuracy due to missed cards. But that's ok. When I ditch a table with a negative or neutral count to immediately jump to a table with a strong positive count, I am fine with the possibility, even probability that this count at the secondary table may be off slightly. The bottom line is I am leaving a negative situation for a much more favorable one and that is a game changer for me.

It's funny you mention the mirror thing. My only experience with the mirror situation occurred back in AC before I relocated. I played one casino that had a fairly low mirrored ceiling. Just leaning back slightly, I could play my game and still have a pretty clear view of the game directly across the pit, with absolutely no bodies to block the view because I was looking from above. This is the type of situation where you focus mostly on pips and paint and yes there is some error rate involved (see how I always acknowledge error rate?) but the benefit was still great.

[KJ]

Very interesting KJ. Therefore, as Frank or Ben Matlock would say, I submit your honor, that KJ does indeed employ more than just the one simple count of HI Lo. Therefore, do not assume just because you are playing a game with Hi Lo in the middle of nowhere with one table and multiple players that you are anywhere close to the expertise level of a KJ. The defense rests.

I am a little confused as to the point you are trying to make. I apologize for being dense.

One point that I would make is that I am able to do something like track multiple tables BECAUSE I employ a simple count like hi-lo. And tracking multiple tables is just one example. There are other techniques that other players use, that are just a better fit with a simple count. Has to do with options, which is always a good thing.

But even that aside, even if I was regulated to play crowded conditions and casinos that didn't have multiple tables or multiple tables easily accessible, I am still of the fundamental belief that simplicity is all that's needed. One you go to the next step, of a higher count, there may be benefits, but it is a very diminishing return for the investment of effort (with todays conditions that most players play). Now if you want to pull the Delorean up to my door and transport me back to 1985, then we can talk level two/three counts and side counts and realistic benefits.

Ben Matlock was the Andy Griffith guy? Who is Frank Matlock? His brother I presume?

[Ryemo]

It's funny you mention the mirror thing. My only experience with the mirror situation occurred back in AC before I relocated. I played one casino that had a fairly low mirrored ceiling. Just leaning back slightly, I could play my game and still have a pretty clear view of the game directly across the pit, with absolutely no bodies to block the view because I was looking from above.

Awesome! Now that's a pretty great example of APing right there!

[Freightman]

First of all I believe higher error rate is not considered properly when figuring such improvement, so most improvement figures are .

You continually spout that bull crap - where does it come from? It may be more difficult for you, but I guarantee its not to difficult for me. I'd guess that Flash counts close to perfect using his system Tthree claims perfect or close to Perfect.

I'm all in favor of keeping things simple for newer players, as do you. However, I think it is you who is doing a disservice to players who want to expand their horizons, essentially condemning them to the stone ages.