Win Loss distributions?

[RS]

How do I find the win/loss distributions in blackjack? I'd like to figure out the chance of losing 1, 2, 3, or 4 bets, a push, or winning 1, 2, 3, or 4 bets. I'm referring to a single deck, DAS, D10, no LS, 1:1 BJ, split once (max 2 hands), S17, shuffle every round game. I don't care how "bad" this game is nor the House Edge (so please don't lecture me about that). I only care about the win/loss distributions.

For example, I get 8,8 vs 6, I split, catch a 2 and double on the first hand end with 17, get a T on the second hand for 18, dealer pulls a 21...I've lost 3 bets in that hand.


Is there a way for me to figure out the win/loss # of bets distribution? Or is this info available somewhere? Or does anyone know what they are? [I don't need completely precise figures.]

[RS]

I've tried searching....most things I'm finding are things like standard deviation, win rates for counting (ie: 1.5% edge with 1-10 spread)....and I'm not even sure what to be searching for, other than "blackjack win loss distributions". ??

I looked through the table of contents on Norm's free book webpage, and I'm not finding anything that looks similar to what I'm looking for. :frowny face:

[RS]

I missed your distinction of losing number of bets and not hands. I doubt a search would find that out. number of hands yes (I found that rather quickly) but bets no.

Correct. Something like the following:

-4 bets: 1%
-3 bets: 3%
-2 bets: 6%
-1 bet: 37%
push: 9%
+1 bet: 30%
+2 bets: 8%
+3 bets: 4%
+4 bets: 2%

( I just made up random numbers there. )

[Norm]

-4	0.005%
-3	0.11%
-2	3.2%
-1	46%
0	6.9%
1	39%
2	4.6%
3	0.16%
4	0.15%

[DSchles]

Unusually low number of pushes, no? Especially when considering that splitting a pair and winning one and losing one would go into that category.

Don

[Norm]

Then again, splitting and pushing on one of the hands will not be a push and splitting and winning one and losing the other will not be a push if one is doubled. Also, when you split, it is more common to win or lose both than win one and lose the other.

[RS]

-4	0.005%
-3	0.11%
-2	3.2%
-1	46%
0	6.9%
1	39%
2	4.6%
3	0.16%
4	0.15%

Thank you very much norm.

How much do these figures change based on rules and decks? Is there a significant difference between s17 and h17, SD and DD or even 6D, D10 vs DA2...?

[Norm]

Don't know. Don't have the time to look.