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Thread: Doubling down on negative counts

  1. #1


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    Doubling down on negative counts

    Hi guys

    Another quick question. Is it worth doubling down on negative counts. Obviously spiltting is necessary as it doesn't only double chance of winning but it improves your hand if you are dealt poor cards. With doubling however is different. Was just wondering whether not doubling on negatives counts or even neutral will protect the bank role in the long road.

    By the way forum is really helpful . cheers

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    Double and split as the index play tells you. Some split are offensive (make more money in a positive situation) and some are defensive (lose less money in a negative situation). Doubles are always offensive plays. If you don't know your index plays start to learn them. for play all the I18 and fab 4 are the most important but in the long run you should probably learn at least 50 index plays. The importance of index plays is determined by the frequency of use, how quick it gains advantage after the index is exceeded and the bet size you will have out when you are making the play. I doubt the latter was included in figuring importance because that is a variable depending on the individuals ramp etc not a constant. Wonging style also affects what the most important plays are as if you never make a playing decision in a negative count those negative indices in the I18 will be used at a frequency of 0. Obviously this shift in frequency of use with wonging affects all the index plays. Almost half of the I18 would never be used by a player that only made playing decisions in positive TC's. The hands would always be played the same. Certainly for such a player the 18 most important indices would include quite different plays.

    I hope this helps illustrate why you should learn more than just the I18. If you skew your play at all for positive counts and against negative EV situations it changes what indices are most important. That canned answer of just learn the I18 is an answer from someone wearing blinders as to the reality of actual play for most people.

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    I use about 100 indices, depending on the game in play.

    The reason is that our edge is very slim and we

    "need all the help we can get."

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    Thank you for the reply. I have learnt the indices which are mentioned in tko method from the book colour of blackjack. However there are only 12 indices. Should I still learn the ll18 ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZenMaster_Flash View Post
    I use about 100 indices, depending on the game in play.

    The reason is that our edge is very slim and we

    "need all the help we can get."
    Good logic....BUT...in the case of negative counts, which is what the OP asked about, playing many negative count index plays are the second best choice.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Vandammage View Post
    Thank you for the reply. I have learnt the indices which are mentioned in tko method from the book colour of blackjack. However there are only 12 indices. Should I still learn the ll18 ?
    Yes - since you are using TKO, I suggest that you use the indexes recommended for the Hi-Lo counting method. That is the I18 and Fab4. For a complete chart of Hi-Lo indexes for a multi-deck game, pick up a copy of Stanford Wong's "Professionjal Blackjack". Table are on pages 46-49 of that book.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    Good logic....BUT...in the case of negative counts, which is what the OP asked about, playing many negative count index plays are the second best choice.
    Especially in pitch games but also in deeply dealt shoes to a lesser degree the count can swing negative with a big bet out. It is best to know ow to play those big bets so as to win te most from them in the long run. That would mean knowing negative indices.

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    I'm assuming I will have to adjust for the different running counting when applying hi low indices to tko. Does anyone have a knowedge to do this.

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    It is easier to just switch to hilo.

  10. #10


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    I like the ease of use with tko and flexibility . counting the cards have become easy however adding a true counting may just slow me down and make it more mentally draining. Is it really worth the extra tiny advantage as the author of tko explains ?

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