Originally Posted by
SiMi
Hey, ZB
Your first paragraph shows a misunderstanding of the theory of card counting by the ex-Card Counter/AP. As I've written before, I strongly suspect most people who CC don't understand the probability and statistics underlying the theory of card counting because these topics are simply not intuitive and, in many cases, they are COUNTER (pun) intuitive.
The billions of rounds run in Monte Carlo computer simulations are done to generate an accurate edge calculation. You can do it with Combinatorial Mathematics and a hand-held calculator or a calculating computer program if you are a very sharp mathematician a la Peter Griffin and you won't need to do any Monte Carlo computer simulations at all. Most people aren't that sharp/patient so we rely on Monte Carlo computer simulations to get the same results. But, as Peter Griffin wrote, working things out "by hand" will often reveal subtle issues that can help generate new, helpful ideas.
If the math or the sims show a 1.5% edge, then you have that edge every time you play that way. You don't need to play billions of rounds because you START with the edge. Because it's a THEORETICAL edge, you won't see it every round you play just as you don't expect a coin toss to always go back and forth between heads and tails on each successive flip. But, the math underlying the theory of card counting tells you that you will begin to see that edge assert itself as you play more and more rounds. This is the same way you expect a fair coin toss to generate closer and closer to 50/50 results the more you do it. (The theory underlying N0 is that you can calculate the probability of being even or ahead after N rounds of AP play.)
I think it's a bit unfortunate that many people seem to learn how to count cards without understanding the theory underlying what they are doing. Without that understanding, you are just trusting others. That may work fine for a while but, if/when you hit a rough patch, the lack of knowledge tends to cause people to quit even though nothing is wrong. Or, you can have a case where someone is not playing the game they think they are and they don't recognize it until their bankroll is gone because they didn't understand the theory underlying card counting well enough to check what they were doing.
Once you truly understand the theory, there is a MUCH lower anxiety level as you play because you KNOW there will be wild fluctuations that will work out over time. An individual session is just a drop in the bucket compared to the Long Run and there's no point in getting worked up about ANY short term result as long as you're playing correctly. Even looking at yearly results doesn't matter because the Long Run doesn't keep a calendar. The days, weeks, months and years are human constructs that have no bearing at all on the way the Universe works in the realm of probability.
If this person wants to continue to play Blackjack for fun, why not play with an advantage as much as possible? If s/he finds CC too difficult, then they definitely should NOT be trying to card count and that's fine but that says nothing about whether CC is, in theory and in fact, profitable or not.
Young people who want to CC need to educate themselves to the realities of CC as much as older folks who start CC. The realistic edge for typical CC is about 1% or so and either that's worth it to you or not. Because of the math, it's a "guaranteed thing" if done properly, unlike being the next American Idol. Either you have the bankroll and the skills to do it properly or you do not regardless of your age. I'd rather play with an edge than without the edge. I enjoy playing so it's a no-brainer for me.
Best
SiMi
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