Tough crowd. I hit 16 v 2, 16 v 3, 15 v 3, 14 v 6, 14 v 5 etc all the time if the count calls for them, and very few people said anything. Just make sure they know you save the table when you save the table. Then ploppies hope you do it again.Originally Posted by tjr5259
One time I heard a ploppy tell an anecdote about how in Vegas a guy who was betting big paid him (I can't recall if it was $5/hand or a large lump sum at once, or if it just occurred for the one hand) to do what he said. It could be a guy sequencing but I think it's more likely (especially if he was paying by the hand) that it was just a big fish ploppy paying off another one. God what I would give to get paid $5 a hand.
I lol'd, I'm using this one.
I think it depends where you are. So places people care more, some people care less. Some places people know BS much better, but you'll get people who don't follow BS but hassle you for the exact same moves they did! There's no rhyme or reason to a ploppies reactions to your moves or what happens sometimes.
The most annoying thing I've ever heard is when I made an index play (stay 16 v 10) and the dealer got the 5 and made 21 himself. Some kid remarked "aaaand that's why you follow basic strategy". Yeah, the guy who hits his 18 and get's the 3 that would have gave the dealer a pat hand thinks the same way.
Last edited by NotEnoughHeat; 04-05-2015 at 11:34 PM. Reason: Added other responses to this post instead of posting again
For an ace reckoned counter they believe they are at a disadvantage whenever you would make these plays but an ace neutral counter could have a decent advantage bet out when the correct plays are to hit a lot more often than normal. Your play is about the ration of T's to other cards but your advantage is about the ratio of aces to faces combined with the ratio of aces and faces to the low cards. So the correct play is not that well correlated to your actual advantage. Playing more accurately helps you increase the advantage from a better knowledge of the more specific deck composition. Ace betting EORs can change depending on the density of T's. The betting EORs we know are off the top EORs. If there are lots of low cards the flexibility of the ace giving you a second chance to make a hand when lots of low cards are to be expected affects the ace's value. The point is your actual advantage depends on things different than what determines the correct play. Most plays either have the ace as a low card or a near neutral card. There are some plays where the ace is a high card. If you count the ace in the main count your plays will only be accurate when the ace as a high card for the play. But in hit/stand situations against a 2-6 the ace acts as a low card. So the ace reckoned counter may have a big bet out but be unaware that the correct decision based on the deck composition due to a high surplus of aces left (not many seen) but if the aces are side counted in an ace neutral count the correct play is better indicated by the count and may say to hit.
Let us say the HIOPT II/ASC counter is at a table with a HILO counter. There are 1 decks left and the HIOPT II counter has a RC of -7 with 7 surplus aces for a betting TC of +7 and has a max bet out. The HILO counter has a RC and TC of +4 and also has a BIG bet out due to the large advantage predicted by each count. They both have 15v3. The Hilo player stands without even a second thought. The HIOPT II/ASC player calculates the TC for this play to be TC -14 ((-7+-7)/1) and compares to the standing index of -11. It isn't even that close. An easy hit. Now the play mostly depends on the ratio of 4's, 5's and 6's to 9's and T's. That makes HIOPT II/ASC have a high correlation coefficient due to the added weight of the count tags for most of the key cards but still a key card, the 9, is not counted. HILO has a relatively poor correlation coefficient due to the ace being counted as a high card and the count tags all having the same magnitude. Most of the time HIOPT II/ASC would make the right call. but that all depends on the actual deck composition not the count. The count gets it right most of the time but if there are a few surplus 9's that would be all it would take to sway it back the other way. The 9 side count adjustment is -2 (the 8 is also a neutral high card and has an adjustment of a -1 if you are side counting that rank)and the ace is +1 for 15v3 when using HIOPT II. Both counts do the best with the information they gather. Deficit 9's and 8's favor hitting compared to an expected number of those ranks. There is no guarantee which count will be right unless you consider the actual deck composition and not a count.
Anyway that is why players with one counting system will be making plays that another wouldn't make. It isn't that you wouldn't be there when the play should be made but rather your count leaves you clueless about when it should be made when you are still there and perhaps even have a big bet out.
I got an "I saved the table" pin from Barona because I hit a 12v3 (or maybe 12v4?). It was the funniest thing ever, I think. I caught a 7 or 8, no one noticed. Dealer pulled a ten with another ten for a bust. Dealer mentions since I took the card, I saved the table, or else he would'a had 20 or 21. Everyone goes crazy, "Wow, how did you know!!? That's incredible! That's so brave you hit a 12v3 [or 4?]!!!"
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
If your in an area where you have to play the same tables often this is a great way to keep other locals away and have the table more to yourself. Where I play I only have a few places to choose from within driving distance and I hit them regularly enough to recognize the same old plop's. There are a few that some that make for a really nice table that is pleasant and fun to be at while there are some that are so grumpy that they piss off all the dealers and the pit so much that the pen goes to 3/8 and the pace of the game goes to a crawl. Plus you can't get a cocktail server to come within 20 ft like there is some kind of restraining order on him. With his attitude there probably is. Anyway point is people will always try to justify a loss to something other than the fact that they were too dumb to realize that you should not lay out a $200 bet at a -18 RC with a 1.5 decks remaining.
This. What is sometimes forgotten is that a count doesn't tell you the right or wrong decision, it tells you the best play given the limited information that the count is sensitive to. Different counts will have different sensitivities to different pieces of information (ratio of two classes of ranks for example) and thus correlate differently on decisions.
Last edited by NotEnoughHeat; 04-07-2015 at 09:50 PM. Reason: clarity & accuracy, too tired to proof read again, let me know if I said something wrong
Don't wear that pin anywhere! It is a RFID tag that tracks your location in the casino. The Tables are equipped with short range RFID readers that can then read the tag and report back to EITS what table you are at and they hawk the game.
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