TA has some predictive value because some people believe in TA and you can predict their actions. Let's call it the Tinkerbell Effect.
I'm not going to quote the rest of it since you're going to edit the post.Originally Posted by Tom
Congratulations on your trades. Anecdotal evidence is just that. It would be like a guy with a BS card walking up to a table with $500 and leaving with 20k.
I'm sure it happens, but what conclusions can we draw from that???
A segment of a simulation in hard copy for say 100,000 hands so the player can apply his system against the hard copy because the simulator wouldn't be able to allow for every conceivable betting system. A picture is worth a thousand words. It would still be a slow process for the player but still better than nothing. Printing out 5 or 10 million hands would impractical and ware out most printers. A calculator would just give a final figure whereas a player needs to see the devil in the detail.
I wouldn't say some, I would say most or even stretch to say 95%. Pretty sure every bank uses it. But, yes it really is herd mentality. There are some techniques of TA that are truly voodoo. But many, and the ones that I use are mathematical.
You have been told this is worthless on other forums. I have no intention of repeating why yet again. I just don't want an innocent seeing your post unchallenged.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
I think that investing or trading is much better than gambling. The stock markets tends to appreciate over time, and you should end up ahead as long as your transaction costs aren't more than the appreciation. Throw in some dividends and you're really on to something.
The question isn't if you can make money, it's can you beat an index like the S&P500 or the Russel over the long term using TA?
While I see Bridgewater, Berkshire, and some other firms outperforming over the long term, I don't see any TA firms on that list...
51% since the beginning of 2008 would be around a 9% IRR. Very nice given that the S&P was virtually in the same place as it is now.
Of course if you bought in Oct/Nov of 2008 then that return would under perform the S&P in that time frame.
Let' agree to disagree on this one and move on.
Whatever you're doing seems to be working for you, and I wish you continued luck.
Marv
Splitting hairs regarding charting and other TA. Many practitioners and academics consider them one and the same.
Yep, people all over the world, even smart ones, are irrational.
Go to any investment bank and chances are that their health plan offers acupuncture and homeopathy coverage as well
The reality is that although investment banks may offer TA portfolios since some people want to put money into them, their prop desks are/were not generally TA based (I'm not aware of any in my limited experience).
Companies that pay dividends don't pay corporate income taxes? I know S-corps are flow-through and pay only the personal income tax rate, but given that an S-corp can't legally have more than 100 stockholders it's hard to see how one would make it onto the stock exchange. C-corps pay corporate income, period. Am I missing something? Is tax only levied on the profit not paid out in dividends?
EDIT: And isn't legitimate avoidance of double taxation the whole point of partnerships and S-corps?
Last edited by Frostbyte; 10-02-2012 at 03:19 PM.
"Wait a minute. How do you beat someone to death with their own skull? That doesn't seem physically possible." "That's what Jimmy kept screaming: 'This doesn't seem physically possible!'"
Looking at the short run is what gets betting system players in trouble by deluding the player to think he has a winner, especially the systems that have very high variance. Unless you can make bets where you know you have an advantage at larger amounts than bets with a lesser expectation, your expectation is the house edge times the total amount bet on all your bets. By increasing bets in this situation you only make your expected loss higher. A calculator would let you know where you stand without the chance of deluding yourself.
Expectation is different for a counter than it is to a system player. A counter cherry picks a few wins out of many, whereas a non-counter targets all the wins. A good system player accepts that the dealer will win more hands than the player. A test of a system is how well it overcomes the the house advantage. Whether a hand is won with a positive expectation or not, is of little importance to a system player. Counters are tied to expectation and the cut card, while non-counters aren't. A counter's logic is applicable to counting, not system players. System players are judged by how well they overcome a disadvantage. A simulator would show system players if they are accomplishing their goal of overcoming the house edge without wasting a lot of time and money.
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