After my latest disastrous loss, I read some of the latest literature on losing. Then... I trudged back and played another session.
I didn't do too badly. I actually had some positive variance on my min bets. And I was rarely the only one losing. I didn't bust on all my stiff hands. Although the count never went spectacularly high, I had built up nearly a $400 profit when I was about to leave after playing one final shoe.
And then it was inevitable. The count went to +5 and +6 and I was forced to do a Hail Mary. Five minutes before I was going to leave.
I got dealt two 16's in a row and busted both.
Then I got dealt two 11's and doubled to 20 on both. The dealer had a 4 up. She went .... ace six.
To be fair, the next two hands I got a blackjack and a 21 respectively. At which time the count was no longer good. (Penetration is 90%! where I play.) I left with a profit of $182.50 which was more than the EV I got in my session.
But at the end of the day a great proportion of our EV is generated at the very high counts when we are max betting. I just cannot win the hands that count. I have had a bad run precisely because every time I run into what is supposed to be a favourable succession of hands, I lose most of them.
Alas! Woe!
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