Discussion: What is required to succeed as an AP in Blackjack?

[Shadowless]

@KJ, in response to your reply to moses above, in my opinion, there's no need to prove anything to anybody.
As long as you know you're winning, you're the only person you need to impress.

Just like the civilians who critique you for making what they consider the wrong move, the best course of action is to just ignore those who aren't part of your success and don't know better.

[Three]

my documented NFL p-o-t-w ended 14-6....70%, of course, is unheard of...esp considering I was 3-4 after week 6....a real testament to continuing staying the course with your proven 'system'

good luck

Very nice Sharky. I had decades of picking most would envy and never got much north of 65% for a season. The last 2 seasons I have been struggling with picks at least (bets faired better this year after having to learn to win bets with a blah pick record for the first time) and you put up a gem like I never did. Kudos. You have my respect. I hope you can prove you weren't just lucky by continuing your success. I suspect that success of this magnitude is a mixture of skill and luck. I know people that can pick 70% in other sports but not pro football. Very impressive indeed.

[BigJer]

http://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sho...mprove-my-game

To blow my own horn many people have found my tips helpful.

[Three]

People make waaaaay too many assumptions on this board. I won't bother pointing them out as it is not my place to do so but people should stop assuming they know more about posters than they do. The ones I actually know the truth about the assumptions are usually about as wrong as they can get.

[Sharky]

...I suspect that success of this magnitude is a mixture of skill and luck. I know people that can pick 70% in other sports but not pro football. Very impressive indeed.

thx t3...in 2 yrs of my p-o-t-w on this site have me at 11-8 (2013) - including losing 2 of last 3 and 3 of last 5 - still in the money (57%) and, of 2014 14-6 for a combined win rate of 64% - well into the money....posted for a couple winning seasons on bjinfo as well....as for luck?...ABSOLUTELY plays a part...just as w/ AP BJ....as saying goes, "i'd rather be lucky than good"....which i concur (prob b/c i know i have the good part down pat...)

good luck

[Blitzkrieg]

I once lost 2 million is 6 weeks because two people I thought would never betray me - did.

Finally, I can only close with one guarantee. I seriously doubt you'd have the balls to call me a freakin idiot to my face. But if you were really stupid enough want try a slice of what eats me deep inside every single day. You'd only do it once.

I would have the stones to do it.

[muffdiver]

I would have the stones to do it.

There are times when having stones AND not having sense are one and the same.

[Sharky]

...The Raiders lost and so was his original $1,000...

no, he lost $160,000...of course, 'all in' every week in sports betting is NOT a recommended strategy

[Blitzkrieg]

Most importantly:

Don't gamble. In other words, don't play unless I have an advantage. When losing stick with it and put in the hours. Sometime under bet my bankroll.

It's still gambling the way I see it, even with a slight edge. A player could have the best conditions in which to play, do everything right according to the strategy they are playing with and still get waxed on the table.

[stopgambling]

Interesting .I like your writing skill .

[Goodboy]

There has been talks between two or more people that greatly counters are losers recently in the threads. May I kindly ask all of the blackjack experts for feedback on what make you succeed in playing blackjack for a living.

What worked for me are:

1. Learn to play perfect basic strategy
2. Master a Professional Level Card Counting System. Keep count with distraction. Master Index Plays: Illustrious 18 and Fab 4. Master Desk Estimation and True Count Conversion. Size bet according to ones bankroll.
3. Develop a big enough bankroll to see me through negative fluctuations.
4. Look for good table conditions. Penetration and rules. Backcount the table. Discipline here is very important.
5. Keep heat to the minimum. Use cover play.
6. Sometime keeping the session short.
7. Keep Records of play.

Most importantly:

Don't gamble. In other words, don't play unless I have an advantage. When losing stick with it and put in the hours. Sometime under bet my bankroll.

Disclaimer: I am full time living from AP Blackjack for less than a year so far, but I still provide my two cents for the OP

I agree with your list, with a the only comment on numbers 5 and 6. They seem ok at first glance, but only if they are required. At some places you need less cover and just be more aggressive because you can do it. At some others, cover and short sessions seem to be the way to go.

Something not mentioned on the table?

8) Personal Money Management. I'll addresss two points, there can be more for sure:

8.1) Live frugally or at least work hard to keep your expenses low. And I don't mean the ones related directly to the game, but rather your living ones. In my personal case, those expenses are NOT low compared to my environment, so what I've done is "freezing them" for the short AND mid term and projecting my life with that level, no more. In this area a lot of financial AP moves come to mind, from using credit card offers the smart way to even car choices...

8.2) If you are working with number 3 (a "big" bankroll), not all the money has to be in cash under your bed. Work on it, develop some basic or intermediate skills in the financial market and get that bankroll to work for you and cover part of your living expenses. No, I am not suggesting the stock market due to the high risk factor if you don't have the edge, so aim for medium to low risk options, a conservative porfolio, you get the idea.

[Blitzkrieg]

Losing. When a loss is great enough or the stakes are high enough, losing I've learned, will effect ones inner being. This isn't something I chose to endure or risk I chose to take, but the result of it handling me scared the crap out of me and everyone close to me. I'm told any one of the things I'd experienced were huge obstacles the average person might have trouble dealing with once in their lifetime. It was pointed out I was going through like 5 of them all at the same time. My point is, I really thought I was fine because of the hard shell and endurance I'd built over the years. Looking back, I wasn't fine. The perception was my life was shattered but the reality was it was actually being restored. I'm just a simple guy, and what I've learned from from it is, I like being just a simple guy. But this loss is something I must always be aware of and keep pushed down. I enjoy a few beers and laughs as much as anyone. But if someone decides to take a present in-my-face approach it all comes out.

As for bjarg? He's always been someone I'd respected. HE does is "thang" and evidently very well. It's not a course I'd choose to take, but he seemingly does it with dignity and class.

I see these guys wondering around town wearing their underwear outside their pants, (no they're not that bad) - even talked to a few of them. Some simply have had loss larger than what they (or anyone) could handle - thus the loss handled them. As a contribution to this thread...let's say the long run was too long of a run.

Are you going through a divorce?

[Oneoffthecount]

All of this seems good advice. After being laid off and not finding work for a year, I'm taking 50k as a bankroll and giving it a shot. Here is my checklist

I play HiLo Sweet 16 and Fab 4 and bet correct 98.5 percent of the time according to my CV Black Jack software. I've played a cuople of hundred thousand hands. I'm integrating camoflage into my game. Plan to play 20 to 1 on a $25 table wonding out when count is less than 2 and I lose two in a row. I find that many times, I make it through the end of the shoe this way, without loosing money and often make money by winning on balance for the stay.

Here is one question that I haven't answered and hope a more experience (since almost all on here are) player will help. You plan to play an 800 hand sesion, you have an EV of 80 cents per hand given your spread and rule set, pentration and strategy variables. You sit down at the table and in the first four shoes, blow it up with large bets and win $1400 or more than twice your ev at 700 hands. Make sense to go home or stay?

If you stay with a WR at something like 20%, you would have to think you are going to drop money by staying. However, if you are doing this for a living you believe that over the long term the more hands you play the more money you make. There is nothing to say the next 700 hands wont make money at the rate of your EV but you also have a sure thing in your hands. Also, by leaving quick you would run less risk of heat I would think. So what do you do, consider mission well accomplished and get the heck out of dodge (knowing that by missing 700 hands you can easily go down by the same amount in one shoe and have less hands to balance it out or play the hands you came to play knowing that at the end of the year you budgeted 100k hands and that is what really matters? Is there a point above your ev where it makes sense to walk away from a session, planned trip or even month or year of playing?