They aren't injured, and their injury report going into the game was akin to New England's typical injury report-reporting week to week. Its a chess game, T3.Originally Posted by Tthree
Well those refs were letting the colts get away with being wrapped all over the recievers in the endzone on those last 2 plays of the first half. It looks good for the pick but I can't imagine how much better off they would be if the injury report on oddshark was accurate. You never know the backup might play better than the starter does hurt. The defenders weren't tugging on jerseys or anything but they definitely had arms wrapped around the receivers impeding their progress while the ball was in the air. I just hope the refs are consistent. Oddshark still lists them as Out.
Last edited by Three; 01-18-2015 at 05:44 PM.
Didn't you say over 53.5 in post 684? I'm confused. Are you talking about a teaser or your picks?
Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.
I always tease Over/under picks. The only O/U I didn't tease all year was the correlated parlay. I lost that bet. I must have made the statement that I tease all totals a dozen times in this thread. You either look for another total or a good ATS line to tease. MOV frequencies are very different for each MOV. The gain teasing an ATS play is not linear with the with the number of points the spread is moved. It depends on the MOV frequency of the numbers you move the spread across. Or you look for a great ATS play that is bad due to crappy vig.
I have written how there are plenty of decent handicappers that bust their BR because they don't know how to bet. I had two choices to tease. NE -6.5 to -0.5 which is essentially a pick (no ties in the playoffs. this is a very strong move) and bet SEA ATS at either -7.5 and reasonable vig on one site or -7 and a very high vig on another (that half point is huge but the increased vig makes its value questionable) OR I could tease SEA and let the NE -6.5 bet be ATS. The tease takes the vig off the table. I could get the better line on SEA and tease it to -1 and get the better bet of NE giving up less than a TD. I hate giving up lots of points so with both the higher points and the higher vig erased in the tease it was a no brainer.
My picks have been doing really bad (about 50%) but what I do with them is winning most weeks and I am up really good betting teasers and correlated parlays when applicable and ATS when that makes the most value. It is all about getting the most value. Sometimes the spread makes ATS the most value and sometimes teasing certain ATS lines moves across high frequency MOVs (both would this week) or the line you want has crappy odds but a teaser can make the odds fall out of the payoff equation. You make more value where there wasn't a bet worth the vig or a better value than the ATS bet.
Last edited by Three; 01-18-2015 at 06:51 PM.
I guess I can't complain about Oddshark too much because they made making the right cnoice on which ATS bet to tease easy. If I had accurate inhury report info I probably would have made the same bets but it wouldn't have been so automatic. Had I made the choice to tease NE my picks would have been:
1) SEA -7.5 ( I doubt I would have paid the vig the one site wanted for -7 unteased ATS)
2) NE -6.5 There wasn't anything better out there on the sites that still pay good for 2 team teasers.
3) IND/NE Over 53.5
Now I have won my teaser and most likely won NE -6.5 ATS (NE leads 7-45). Another score and my pick is a win as well but it is the bets that matter. This week bets 2-0 despite this weeks picks going 1-1 so far with the Over needing one more score to cover with 3:42 left. A really good chance no more scoring will occur in which case I go 2-0 betting picks that went 1-2.
Last edited by Three; 01-19-2015 at 11:25 AM.
I was happy to see them win, as well, but it was not so much that they won but that Green Bay collapsed. There were so many ways GB could have cinched that game and they failed at all of them. Not fielding the on-sides kick, sliding in on an interception where there was plenty of running room, failing to score TDs in the red zone, running the ball instead of relying on their greatest strength in Aaron Rodgers, to name a few. The Packers should have nailed it in the first half. They deserved to lose.
Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.
Muff, it's got nothing to do with being fickle. It had everything to do with being pissed!!
At post #576, I honestly would have cheered for the winner of the DAL-GB game, whoever it will be. I expected it to be a closely-contested ballgame, and the winner deserved our support.
Then on post #579, out of the blue, your "buddy" disrespected the Cowboys by basically saying that the only way that the Cowboys won vs Lions is because "the fix was in".
Of course, "the fix was in" for Green Bay the very next week. There was no conclusive evidence to overturn the Bryant catch. Yet, the officials did overturn it (probably to remove the appearance of favoritism).
___
I respected (past tense) Rodgers even when rumors abound about him being gay; and living with his boyfriend, Kevin Lanflisi. But at the DAL and SEA game, all I wished for Rodgers was a season-ending injury.
___
I really didn't care about the Seahawks winning. I just wanted the Mother Packers to fail ... and it was a monumental, epic failure! It's going to be written about, and talked about, and it's gonna hurt for years to come.
Post # 576
Mike McCarthy is a Superbowl-winning coach. This could be part of this psych strategy. But last time I heard, Rodgers will not be practicing until Thursday (instead, he will be receiving treatment). I wish I could watch McCarthy's weekly press conference. I record Garrett's weekly press conferences in full (live and re-edited).
I think both defenses will make a dent on the rushing game. However, GB is just 23rd-ranked vs the rush allowing 119.9 rush ypg. DAL, on the other hand, is 23rd-ranked vs the pass allowing 261.7 pass ypg.
__
I think it all boils down to Rodgers' effectiveness on the passing game. I think DAL will have Murray rush 20-30x, and will limit Romo's exposure to the pass rush. Romo was sacked 6x, and hit much more vs DET.
I think a game plan of mostly Murray rushes to shorten the game, keep the ball away from Rodgers, and protect Romo and the defense. I would think GB would be thinking along similar lines: protect Rodgers, keep the ball from Romo. Protect and preserve the QBs for the SEA game.
As such, even with overwhelming trends to the "Over", I am leaning "Under 52.5".
__
I can't wish you good luck this weekend. But I wish good luck to, and will root for, the winner of this game in the NFC Championship vs SEA (or CAR). Maybe the Packers or the Cowboys will meet Tthree's Ravens in the Superbowl.
Post # 581
Nonsense!
1. If the "fix was in", wouldn't it be simpler to let Suh, the Lions' most disruptive defensive player, remain suspended?
2. Also, the referees could just NOT have called the erroneous "running into the kicker" penalty at the DET 1, which lead to the 2nd DET TD. On instant replay, the punter made contact with the defensive player with his kicking foot, NOT the other way around.
3. I guess the DET punter was in on it also! After the non-penalty, he shanked the punt for like 9/10 yards.
4. PHI was on track (and early favorite) to win the division. Did the Cowboys have a "fix" in 12 other games also? If they did, why have PHI win one, lose one? Same with WAS? Maybe "they" fixed some PHI games also, so that PHI cannot win the division.
5. "They" also have to pay a lot of opponent players in 10-14 other teams ... to let Romo complete those passes, Murray to rush for long yardage and TDs, and the receivers to get yac and TDs. Maybe ... "they" also widen the goal posts when the Cowboys are kicking a FG or PAT? "They" also shorten the chain when the Cowboys have the ball? LOL!
6. Aslan, except for the GB Packers (which is publicly-owned), all 31 team owners are multi-billionaires. We could probably safely assume that most multi-billionaires are without scruples, or at least, less than the average person. Are you saying that out of the 31 multi-billionaires, only Jerry wanted his team to win?
7. Also, why have a "fix" on the Cowboys. CAR is on a very weak division. Much simpler to do it there. Dallas also is heavily favored by bettors. "The fixers' would want an underdog, so that the money-line is huge. Wouldn't it be simpler to "fix" fewer games for CAR as underdog, then bet CAR ML +435 at SEA?
8. I guess the Cowboys cheated on those Aikman-led Superbowl teams also. Maybe Jimmy Johnson had the early version of "spygate", which the Patriots later adopted. What took Jerry this long to rediscover and re-use it?
9. Haters will be haters! They don't need a reason.
The back judge, who threw the flag, had the poorest viewing angle; and from what I heard, was the furthest from the action. He was overridden by 3 other officials.
Maybe the back judge forgot that the "fix was in". The officials then only had to help the punter to shank a 9-yard punt, then help the Cowboys drive 60 yards (including helping Romo convert a 4th-and-6) and score a TD, then help sack Stafford and cause a fumble ... twice! LOL!
BTW, the officials also held the Lions to 3 points in Q2, 3 points in Q3, 0 points in Q4.
How would "organized crime" have benefited from the non-call? Detroit would have covered DET+6.5 WITH or WITHOUT the non-penalty. If "OC" had bet DAL-6.5, Dallas was down 3 points at that point. For DAL to cover, they need a TD and a FG in like 8 mins. Why would DAL try to kick a FG if they scored a TD first? (They would just run down the clock.) If they did kick a FG first (tied game), they could opt to kick another FG, or go to OT. All scenarios are non-covers.
Or are you somehow implying that "organized crime" needed Dallas to WIN that game ...
.... because they had all bet large sums of money on DAL ML-270??
.
To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
.
Math Demon,
I knew the reason but wanted to see you say it. The problem with your analogy though is that, if you watched the game (bet you did), you heard replay guru Mike Herrera immediately say that Dez Bryant's "catch call" would be reversed and you also saw the replay that showed the obvious NON control of the ball by Dez. It's a bad rule that will be changed before next season (without doubt being Jerry Jones' son is on the rules committee.)
But the fact remains that IT IS a rule right now and rules aren't made to be broken.
I have no desire for a pissing match with you about this but you took an unnecessary cheap shot at me. You think you were pissed?
Why would you lose respect for Rodgers because of the Dallas game? Did he make the call reversal? Why would you dislike the Packers? Did they make the call reversal? Make sense man!!!
Now, by saying that you wished season ending injury to Rodgers, you've shown everyone here your lack of character and credibility. Tell me just ONE thing he did that was classless and/or reason for you to wish season ending injury for HIM---------------YOU CAN"T!!!!!!!!!!!!
The fact that you'd wish season ending injury to any player could indicate a need for help. It's out there.
I'll not "talk" further with a person having that mentality.
muffdiver
This much I can agree with. The SEA played so bad the game should have been like 0-45 and GB should have been out of reach when SEA woke up in the second half. Then a long list of should haves had to happen by the Packers to allow SEA to come back. The ones that are most memorable are the onside kick and the 2 point conversion. So many others that don't bring such a pair of goat horns for the offending party.
Then you get the Pats. I guess there are no Colt fans to cry about the cheaters. First they skate around the intent of notifying the refs about eligible receivers by doing it so close to the snap the refs can't tell the defense in time for them to make adjustments to the info. Then they under inflated the 12 footballs that they will use on offense but IND's offense must use the 12 footballs the Colts supplied that were properly inflated. I am not sure wy they feel they must cheat to get to the SB. Remember Spygate. It is like they don't believe in Brady enough to play an honest game. Who knows what cheating ways tey have used that never got exposed. Perhaps Billickik will be denied the hall of fame and Brady will be in but with an asterisk. The pundits and people that can't spot real talent when it doesn't have a good supporting cast of players make such a big deal about Super Bowl wins. but what do they really mean if you got them by cheating year after year after year? I guess this isn't baseball so it will just get brushed under the rug. I guess the fix is in. LOL
Posting Permissions
-*-
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks