Amount of EV to sacrifice as cover play

[Aslan]

I'll use small print rather than my traditional big print because I have a lot to say. I use a variety of different spreads and ramps. I won't discuss exact numbers. I have done far too much of that already, but I will share some of my findings on Vegas in a general sense. These are my views on conditions, my very general profile if you will. Keep in mind, that I moved to Vegas 5 years ago (Dec 2009), so these views/principals are based on current conditions. I am not influenced by better games of 10, 20 or 30 years ago, when you could spread bigger, and they though nothing of bigger action, nor people showing up with a suitcase full of money wanting to play anonymously. That's not the Vegas I know. I wish I had experienced those days, but to me they are just hearsay. Basically like a myth.

I have tailored my game and attack to these principals with longevity as my primary concern:

1.) Vegas doesn't offer the best games. Much better games/conditions elsewhere. The advantage of Vegas in quantity of playable (subjective) games in close proximity.

2.) Double deck games are a counter trap. If you don't like that term, just know, that they are severely hawked (watched) and protected, meaning quick backoffs.

3.) Spreading to 2 hands draws attention and is not tolerated very well.

4.) There are definite “thresholds”, meaning amounts that once you hit or cross it, you will be watched more closely and draw more attention. I will get into more on the thresholds in a minute.

These findings are based on my own experiences, discussions with a couple pit friends, and experiences of a couple other players, whose opinion I value. Every time I share one of these views, there will be someone that responds, “But I was in Vegas 2 weeks ago and played the DD game at XXXX for 8 hours with no heat”. Good for you. 1.8 percent of folks that jump from the Golden Gate Bridge live. My views are about what occurs the majority of time and what to do to to achieve any kind of longevity. I tailor my game plan and plan of attack based on the 98.2 percent, not the 1.8 percent.

Now, back to thresholds. The threshold for the mid level that I play is generically $500. This is the generic number that when you hit it, you immediately draw more attention, it takes you to a different level in the eyes of the casino. There may be higher thresholds for higher levels of play, that's out of my league. This is a very generic number. Some places it is more, some smaller places less. Some places it is more or less at certain times (crowded conditions). You develop a specific profile for every casino that you play regularly. What is tolerated at certain times and even by different pit people. I won't discuss these specifics, but this generic $500 figure is a good generic starting point.

In my opinion, identifying these thresholds and playing beneath them, combined with short sessions is the key to longevity. Short sessions allows you to sort of play off the radar. You never show too much information in one sitting or session. Short sessions will also keep your wins more moderate. You will rarely have that big monster win that also draws concern and attention.

One final thing about playing under the threshold, more in the comfort or better tolerated level. Some players identify such a threshold level, say $500 and set their max bet right up against it at $475 or $450. I don't do that. If I identify a threshold point of $500, I am max betting $400.

If you bet an odd amount like $475 or even $450, there are two ways to do so. One a large stack of green, which the pit and EITS can't really distinguish from the $500 threshold amount that you are trying to stay below. If you wager $475 or $450 using black and green, you begin to slow down the pay out process, especially blackjack and surrender on the dealers part and insurance on the players part. (some places are required to actually breakdown the wager, moving the green to a separate small stack before paying). Once I get to my max bet point. I don't want to do anything to slow down the game. I want things to move along as quickly as possible...boom....boom....boom. Get through the shoe and exit as quickly as possible providing the shortest window for anyone who might be looking.

And yes, I believe there are pit folks who have identified me and look the other way because they know my pattern of staying within the tolerance level and short sessions. Most pit people don't want to back you off. It's bad for business to tell someone they can't play in front of other players. Even if they try to ask you to step away first. It really is bad for business. But they don't want to have to answer for you either. Short sessions, staying within tolerated betting levels and moderate wins as opposed to bigger win, allows them the choice to look the other way. Not all, but some, I would even say many, will take that option.

All of what you say is spot on. Even if you set a lower level, say $200 or $300, if you play for more than a relatively short period of time you must be prepared for more camo than I have ever hear anyone discuss on the forum (I'm speaking of DD). It's not just the amount bet, but the amount of time you bet it. If you were a pit boss/EITS and the same guy repeated the same pattern of max bet in plus counts over and over again in the same session, its like saying, "In your face!"