Makes no difference how someone else plays their hands.and those games just attract too many idiots
Do you understand that there are for a DD there 1.029901674 X E 166 different ways a 104 cards can be arranged???? What "set up" of the cards are you talking about?but I am now leaning more towards the set up of cards being more important than the count.
My Ability in Blackjack is a Gift from God!!
I have to disagree with this one. Nobody should use a count they can't handle but with that said a level 2 count is most valuable to a low BR small stakes player. He won't get the gain of the increased bets at most of his advantage counts because they would be rainbow bets of red and white that just scream counter. The increase in EV for the level 2 count has the a similar percentage increase as a big BR player which doesn't amount to much for someone with a low EV but the gain will be mostly in decreased RoR, decreased N0 and increased SCORE. This is exactly were failure lurks for most underfunded red chippers. The extra EV isn't going to help get to the next level that much faster but the decrease in RoR will greatly decrease the chances of going bust. That helps get around the underfunded red chippers biggest obstacle. The added EV is a small help to getting to the next level but the decrease in N0 helps survival to the long run since long run is an exponential function of N0.
Now this guy may have some real problems that need addressing if his posts weren't trolling but in fact a plea for help. Those that took it as a plea for help have made a lot of good points that may fix his attack. Using a count he can't handle as a master may be another or his only problem. If that is the case switching to an easier count is a must. It sounds like he learned just enough to get himself into trouble to me. He learned to count and maybe learned indices but didn't learn money management or any of the other things that are at least as important as counting to ones success.
TEst yourself against CVBJ to see if you have counting errors .If you are playing that many hours for so many days with a borderline spread vs a maybe 60% DD game. You can not afford to make many small mistakes. i thought I was doing well when i was counting 8-10 hrs straight using only Hi Lo and then i test myself finding far too many errors. Luckily I play a more aggressive game than you but still the errors hurt me. Check your game before dismiss counting does not work. Also if your deck estimation and tc conversion is not accurate enough and you are using hi-opt 2 w asc, that is another probable reason for your poor performance.
Last edited by stopgambling; 01-12-2015 at 09:31 PM.
Now I have results to demonstrate what I am talking about. A red chipper with a 4K BR finds a decent 8 deck game $5 min and thinks he can bet to $95 max with no heat for 1-19 spread. Here is the comparison of HILO and HIPTII/ace side count full indices and HILO full. 8 deck, 1 deck cut off H17, DAS, LS, 1-19 spread ($5-$95):
HIOPT II/Ace side full: $20.41/100 rnds, SD $57.4/100 rnds, N0 19787, c-SCORE $50.54, 13.7% RoR
High low full indices: $19.58/100 rounds, SD $58.47100 rnds, N0 22294, c-SCORE 44.84, 16.0% RoR
I used playall because wonging styles get pretty personal.
Now like many have pointed out the gain from the level 2 count is only $0.83/100 rounds or 4.2%. That is not much but the gain that could have gone to betting higher with the same RoR is now found as a lower RoR. The HILO player is 16.8 % more likely to go bust. That means for every 6 players that go bust using HIOPT ii/ace side there are 7 that go bust using HILO. There is also a significant difference in N0 and c-SCORE. HILO has a N0 that is 12.7% larger than the HIOPT II used here. Most consider 50 to be the borderline for a playable SCORE for a game. This game has a playable c-SCORE of $50.54 for HIOPT II/ace side but HILO falls 10.32% short of being a playable game with a c-SCORE of $44.84.
So as has been pointed out the EV gain for an underfunded red chipper is very small since he will not get to raise his bets to keep RoR the same without making rainbow bets or fractional bets. Rainbow bets slow down the game and you can't make fractional dollar bets. Since that is the case the gain is only 4.2% or $0.83/100 rounds. That is not much and most would consider it not worth the effort. However the underfunded red chipper's future depends on not busting out at a RoR that most would consider way too high. The HIOPT II player is playing full kelly which maximizes BR growth while the HILO player is playing well over full kelly which makes busting out too risky. While the HIOPT II player is playing at an uncomfortable RoR for most people the HILO player is playing above full Kelly and is about 17% more likely to go bust. Add that to HIOPT II reaching N0 at 19787 hands and an EV of $4038.5 while HILO is still risking ruin before hitting N0 for another 2507 hands.
While the extra EV for HIOPT II is a measly $185 when HILO reaches N0 the increased likelihood of surviving to that point is worth far far more to an underfunded red chipper than even a large increase in EV.
Because now you're a black woman? haha
That's all well and good, but it sounds like he's not mentally disciplined enough to go beyond a simple Hi/Lo count, as much as you love to ramble on about how moving from a "simple" count to a "complicated" count somehow emboldens your stance on complicated counts being the best, in a realistic setting and game, it won't make a world of difference for him, and what your "other" post failed to account for was "room for error". The more complicated your count becomes, the tighter your ramp becomes, and the higher your EV, essentially. But if you make a simple error in a count that essentially has "no room for error", you'll lose more EV than had you made the same error in a Hi/Lo count.
Considering what this guy has told us so far, I promise you, his discipline would only allow for Hi/Lo and nothing more. Maybe a side-count aces for insurance purposes, but that's it.
Call the fire department, that burned.
Ziiiiiing!
Well said Moses, very well said.
TO the OP: In all honesty, think of this as NASCAR for a minute. No matter how good you are driving (your count method) if you have a lousy pit crew (discipline) you're always going to be "driving" from behind trying to win.
Discipline, in this game, is paramount to all things.
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