Sharky's NFL play of the week

[Math Demon]

I don't get the whole "fix is in" thing, though it seemed like T3 was trying to make that case over the last 3 or 4 weeks with them being "the team" of the NFL and all. I saw the play, I didn't like the call, but Detroit had a few going for them as well, but everyone forgets those calls when the game is "on the line".

Personally, I believe if there is ANY fix, its to keep a game close, rather than a blowout. Nobody watches a game that is 56-7 with 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter, but everyone will be watching if its a 3 point game with 8 minutes left to play.

As for the "dallas fix", if the NFL is fixing ANYTHING for Dallas, its for them to lose in the Super Bowl more than anything. "Jerruh" as I call him, wants a win and all of Dallas and the NFL knows it, but more than anything he wants his team to "compete" for that win to sell more tickets, jerseys, etc. If Dallas wins, the team falls apart and returns to irrelevance over the next 5 years, but if they lose, or fall just short in the NFC Championship, that team goes all out in the draft and free agency to build one hell of a team, and then they stay relevant for a few years. There's a lot to be said for teams getting "this close" and not taking it, and returning for many years only to fall short or eventually win one. You think of teams of the late 80's into the mid 90's like the Niners, Cowboys, Steelers, Bills, Chiefs, Packers, and Broncos. Those teams almost year after year from about 88 to 98 seemed to be in that mix in the playoffs, and often the conference championships and/or super bowls.

Flash forward to now, and those teams are the Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks, and Packers.

I still want the Cinderella story of the Carolina Panthers to happen though. That would just be the ultimate straw that forced the NFL to revamp the playoff structure haha.

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What does a die-hard Dallas Cowboys fan do after his Cowboys win the Superbowl??




He shuts down the PS4 and goes to sleep!



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[Exoter175]

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What does a die-hard Dallas Cowboys fan do after his Cowboys win the Superbowl??




He shuts down the PS4 and goes to sleep!



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LOL!!!!!! That's a good one!

[Math Demon]

LOL!!!!!! That's a good one!

I'm pretty sure that if the Cowboys win the Superbowl in "Madden", there's a major bug, and you should return the game to the store for a refund.

[Math Demon]

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Last Tuesday, I placed a substantial bet on DAL+6 at GB. I also placed half that amount at DAL to win over GB ML+220 (3.20x). If this ML bet wins, I will roll over half the amount won for DAL to win over SEA Moneyline (ML+220 ??).
--> Also SEA - 10.5 vs CAR.


Rodgers has a torn calf muscle, and can be 50%-90% for GB's game vs the Cowboys.

"Green Bay Packers star quarterback Aaron Rodgers has a slight tear in his calf muscle in addition to it being significantly strained"
http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=403363

__________________________________________________

I had been keeping the following under wraps for two days:


Full Disclosure: This is just my first season handicapping and sports-betting any sport (including the NFL). It actually began in NFL 2014 - Week 3. As such, this is also my first post-season handicapping experience. I did NOT even follow any team (except the Cowboys) in the previous 5 years. So ... caveat emptor!


DAL @ GB - Items to consider:

1. GB is unbeaten at home 8-0 SU, 12-4 overall. DAL is unbeaten on the road 8-0 SU, 13-4 overall.

http://www.foxsports.com/buzzer/video/dallas-cowboys-green-bay-packers-why-dallas-will-win-010515?vid=380341315670
http://www.wfaa.com/story/sports/nfl/cowboys/2015/01/07/5-reasons-the-cowboys-can-beat-the-packers/21385227/


2. Superbowl-winning QB Rodgers: 139.6 passer rating vs DET (#2 overall Def, #2 scoring Def, #1 rushing Def, #15 pass Def) in Week 17 -- even with injured calf. Had an extra week to rest because of the WC bye. In the last 5 games, Rodgers had 8 TDs, 2 INT.

"Choker" Romo: just had 114.0 pssser rating, 6 sacks vs DET in Wild Card round. Romo had 2 back surgeries, 2 broken transverse processes (back bones), fractured ribs. No weeks off. In the last 5 games, Romo has 14 TDs, 1 INT. No Offensive turn-over in the first playoff game.

Romo grew up and played in Wisconsin, and Illinois -- cold-weather should not be an issue. Other Cowboys? Unknown.

http://www.foxsports.com/southwest/lists/dallas-cowboys-ten-reasons-why-you-love-hate-tony-romo-010615


3. Romo and Rodgers ended the regular season #1 and #2 in passer rating, with Romo (113.2) and Rodgers(112.2). Romo and Rodgers ended #1 and #12 in completion percentage, with Romo (69.9%) and Rodgers (65.6%).


DAL - 7th-ranked Off vs GB 15th-ranked Def. GB - 6th ranked Off vs DAL 19th ranked Def.
DAL - 2nd-ranked rush Off vs GB 23rd-ranked rush Def. GB - 11th-ranked rush Off vs DAL 8th-ranked rush Def.
DAL - 15th-ranked pass Off vs GB 10th-ranked pass Def. GB - 9th-ranked pass Off vs DAL awful 23rd-ranked pass Def.

* The Cowboys' Defense has only allowed 6 passing TDs in the last 6 games (1, 2, 0, 1, 1, 1 TD); 9 rushing TDs in the last 6 games; 2 rushing TDs in the last 3 games (0, 1, 1).


Offensive Weapons:

DAL RB Murray / GB RB Eddie Lacy.

GB Nelson (15.5 ypc, 13 TD), Cobb (14.1 ypc, 12 TD), Adams (11.7 ypc, 3 TD), TE Quarless (11.1 ypc, 3 TD) & RB Lacy (10.2 ypc, 4 TD).
DAL Bryant (15.0 ypc, 16 TD), Williams (16.8 ypc, 10 TD), TE Witten (11.0 ypc, 5 TD), Beasley (11.4 ypc, 4 TD), RB Murray (7.3 ypc, 0 TD) & Harris (16.6 ypc, 0 TD).

DAL K Bailey (25 of 29; 56 long; 1 blocked) / GB K Crosby (27 of 33; 55 long; 3 blocked)

DAL Defense vs DET: 14 pts (Q1); 3 pts (Q2); 3 pts (Q3); 0 pts (Q4).

GB Superbowl-winning HC McCarthy / Unproven Garrett



4. I think it all boils down to Rodgers' effectiveness on the passing game. I think DAL will have Murray rush 20-30x, and will limit Romo's exposure to the pass rush. Romo was sacked 6x, and hit much more vs DET.

I think a game plan of mostly Murray rushes to shorten the game, keep the ball away from Rodgers, and protect Romo and the defense. I would think GB would be thinking along similar lines: protect Rodgers, keep the ball from Romo. Protect and preserve the QBs for the SEA game.


5. On the other hand, DAL could try score some early "quick strike" TDs to Williams or Bryant, make GB one-dimensional, then bring on the heat to Rodgers.

If the Cowboys' Defensive coaches are any good, they will rush Rodgers early and often to try to take him out of the game. Once you capture the opponent's "Queen", zugzwang (force backup QB Flynn to win the game for you).

http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas-cowboys/post/_/id/4739416/cowboys-pass-rush-peaking-at-right-time

Per Pro Football Focus, DAL CB Scandrick and CB Moore are 2 out of 4 CBs have not allowed a single receiving TD when they are the primary defender. Assign them to Nelson and Cobb, then pass-rushers should try to break the "ice sculpture".


6. Some poster's buddy had stated and scientifically proven that "The Fix Is In" for the Cowboys. Such "proven" statement had been repeated on this Forum. It would be foolish NOT to bet on such solid, reliable information!




Jerry - Detroit.jpg

[Exoter175]

Speaking of the "cowboys fix", did anyone notice the new information that came out the other day from TMZ sports that VP of officiating Dean Blandino was on the Cowboys party bus after the game?

Interesting.

[Aslan]

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Last Tuesday, I placed a substantial bet on DAL+6 at GB. I also placed half that amount at DAL to win over GB ML+220 (3.20x). If this ML bet wins, I will roll over half the amount won for DAL to win over SEA Moneyline (ML+220 ??).
--> Also SEA - 10.5 vs CAR.


Rodgers has a torn calf muscle, and can be 50%-90% for GB's game vs the Cowboys.

"Green Bay Packers star quarterback Aaron Rodgers has a slight tear in his calf muscle in addition to it being significantly strained"
http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=403363

__________________________________________________

I had been keeping the following under wraps for two days:


Full Disclosure: This is just my first season handicapping and sports-betting any sport (including the NFL). It actually began in NFL 2014 - Week 3. As such, this is also my first post-season handicapping experience. I did NOT even follow any team (except the Cowboys) in the previous 5 years. So ... caveat emptor!


DAL @ GB - Items to consider:

1. GB is unbeaten at home 8-0 SU, 12-4 overall. DAL is unbeaten on the road 8-0 SU, 13-4 overall.

http://www.foxsports.com/buzzer/video/dallas-cowboys-green-bay-packers-why-dallas-will-win-010515?vid=380341315670
http://www.wfaa.com/story/sports/nfl/cowboys/2015/01/07/5-reasons-the-cowboys-can-beat-the-packers/21385227/


2. Superbowl-winning QB Rodgers: 139.6 passer rating vs DET (#2 overall Def, #2 scoring Def, #1 rushing Def, #15 pass Def) in Week 17 -- even with injured calf. Had an extra week to rest because of the WC bye. In the last 5 games, Rodgers had 8 TDs, 2 INT.

"Choker" Romo: just had 114.0 pssser rating, 6 sacks vs DET in Wild Card round. Romo had 2 back surgeries, 2 broken transverse processes (back bones), fractured ribs. No weeks off. In the last 5 games, Romo has 14 TDs, 1 INT. No Offensive turn-over in the first playoff game.

Romo grew up and played in Wisconsin, and Illinois -- cold-weather should not be an issue. Other Cowboys? Unknown.

http://www.foxsports.com/southwest/lists/dallas-cowboys-ten-reasons-why-you-love-hate-tony-romo-010615


3. Romo and Rodgers ended the regular season #1 and #2 in passer rating, with Romo (113.2) and Rodgers(112.2). Romo and Rodgers ended #1 and #12 in completion percentage, with Romo (69.9%) and Rodgers (65.6%).


DAL - 7th-ranked Off vs GB 15th-ranked Def. GB - 6th ranked Off vs DAL 19th ranked Def.
DAL - 2nd-ranked rush Off vs GB 23rd-ranked rush Def. GB - 11th-ranked rush Off vs DAL 8th-ranked rush Def.
DAL - 15th-ranked pass Off vs GB 10th-ranked pass Def. GB - 9th-ranked pass Off vs DAL awful 23rd-ranked pass Def.

* The Cowboys' Defense has only allowed 6 passing TDs in the last 6 games (1, 2, 0, 1, 1, 1 TD); 9 rushing TDs in the last 6 games; 2 rushing TDs in the last 3 games (0, 1, 1).


Offensive Weapons:

DAL RB Murray / GB RB Eddie Lacy.

GB Nelson (15.5 ypc, 13 TD), Cobb (14.1 ypc, 12 TD), Adams (11.7 ypc, 3 TD), TE Quarless (11.1 ypc, 3 TD) & RB Lacy (10.2 ypc, 4 TD).
DAL Bryant (15.0 ypc, 16 TD), Williams (16.8 ypc, 10 TD), TE Witten (11.0 ypc, 5 TD), Beasley (11.4 ypc, 4 TD), RB Murray (7.3 ypc, 0 TD) & Harris (16.6 ypc, 0 TD).

DAL K Bailey (25 of 29; 56 long; 1 blocked) / GB K Crosby (27 of 33; 55 long; 3 blocked)

DAL Defense vs DET: 14 pts (Q1); 3 pts (Q2); 3 pts (Q3); 0 pts (Q4).

GB Superbowl-winning HC McCarthy / Unproven Garrett



4. I think it all boils down to Rodgers' effectiveness on the passing game. I think DAL will have Murray rush 20-30x, and will limit Romo's exposure to the pass rush. Romo was sacked 6x, and hit much more vs DET.

I think a game plan of mostly Murray rushes to shorten the game, keep the ball away from Rodgers, and protect Romo and the defense. I would think GB would be thinking along similar lines: protect Rodgers, keep the ball from Romo. Protect and preserve the QBs for the SEA game.


5. On the other hand, DAL could try score some early "quick strike" TDs to Williams or Bryant, make GB one-dimensional, then bring on the heat to Rodgers.

If the Cowboys' Defensive coaches are any good, they will rush Rodgers early and often to try to take him out of the game. Once you capture the opponent's "Queen", zugzwang (force backup QB Flynn to win the game for you).

http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas-cowboys/post/_/id/4739416/cowboys-pass-rush-peaking-at-right-time

Per Pro Football Focus, DAL CB Scandrick and CB Moore are 2 out of 4 CBs have not allowed a single receiving TD when they are the primary defender. Assign them to Nelson and Cobb, then pass-rushers should try to break the "ice sculpture".


6. Some poster's buddy had stated and scientifically proven that "The Fix Is In" for the Cowboys. Such "proven" statement had been repeated on this Forum. It would be foolish NOT to bet on such solid, reliable information!




Jerry - Detroit.jpg

Looks like pretty even according to your stats. The fix allusion by somebody's buddy was about last week's game, not this week's. Given that Rodger's in not 100%, i'd give Dallas a slight edge. "Super cold" could be a factor, however, given 10 to 20 mph winds and possibly lower temps than the forecast 13%. It's not a game to bet on-- too close to be an advantage play for sure. YMMV

[Math Demon]

Looks like pretty even according to your stats. The fix allusion by somebody's buddy was about last week's game, not this week's. Given that Rodger's in not 100%, i'd give Dallas a slight edge. "Super cold" could be a factor, however, given 10 to 20 mph winds and possibly lower temps than the forecast 13%. It's not a game to bet on-- too close to be an advantage play for sure. YMMV

To Aslan:


I don't see how the stats are even. But, whatever!

It's also way much harder to go unbeaten on the road than it is to be unbeaten at home, being that on the road, you play in unfamiliar stadiums and face noisy, hostile fans.

I think Dallas has the definite advantage. But even if I believe what you say that they're even, how is "DAL to win over GB ML+220 (3.20x)"NOT an advantage play? Or DAL+6, for that matter?

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BTW, my buddy says that that poster's buddy is stupid for spouting all that nonsense!

[Math Demon]

Speaking of the "cowboys fix", did anyone notice the new information that came out the other day from TMZ sports that VP of officiating Dean Blandino was on the Cowboys party bus after the game?

Interesting.

After the game?? It was last August!
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/nfl-vp-officiating-denies-conspiracy-cowboys-article-1.2066539


And why the hell did the officials wait until the 4th quarter? They could just have called any of legitimate penalties vs DET like running into the Cowboys' punter, or DPI for DET? Why call OPI for the Cowboys' receivers at all?

Why did the refs NOT call a 15-yard face mask penalty when DET TE Pettigrew grabbed and yanked DAL LB Hitchens' face mask on the exact same play?

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Maybe the refs were just seeking revenge ...

Refs seeking revenge.jpg

[Math Demon]

Looks like pretty even according to your stats. Given that Rodger's in not 100%, i'd give Dallas a slight edge. "Super cold" could be a factor, however, given 10 to 20 mph winds and possibly lower temps than the forecast 13%. It's not a game to bet on-- too close to be an advantage play for sure. YMMV

So what are your picks, Aslan?

[Aslan]

So what are your picks, Aslan?

I'd be lying if I said I had any insight into who will win an NFL game other than the point spread. I think the spreads are usually right, except for the rare anomalies that generally only those with insider information can spot. I'm no Billy Walters and I don't have any insider information. If the spread has Green Bay a 6-point favorite, it's probably right. I'd rather have a 1% edge at BJ than bet any NFL match-up using the point spread. I especially would not want to bet for or against any team I had an emotional stake in, and Dallas is one team I do not much care for.

[Math Demon]

I'd be lying if I said I had any insight into who will win an NFL game other than the point spread. I think the spreads are usually right, except for the rare anomalies that generally only those with insider information can spot. I'm no Billy Walters and I don't have any insider information. If the spread has Green Bay a 6-point favorite, it's probably right. I'd rather have a 1% edge at BJ than bet any NFL match-up using the point spread. I especially would not want to bet for or against any team I had an emotional stake in, and Dallas is one team I do not much care for.

To Aslan:

Well .... large amounts of money from "sharps" or insiders was bet on DAL + 6, just before the announcement that Rodgers had a tear in his calf muscle along with a significant strain. The large influx of money moved the line to DAL + 5.5.

Today's "NFL Live", "NFL Total Access", "Pro Football Talk", and "NFL Insiders" all indicated that the extremely cold game-time temperature (19F) would be detrimental to Rodgers' injured calf, and that the calf could give out at any point in the game. Rodgers would surely have limited mobility -- thus avoiding the pass rush would be a major issue. Any hard sacks affecting that "torn calf muscle" would end his day, and the Packers' season. You can be assured that the DAL defensive coaches will emphasize that.

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I look at the stats, games and match-ups in an unbiased manner. I am 4-0 ATS betting the Cowboys in December. The one ATS loss was last week: DAL-6 and they only won by 4, so the ATS margin was -2. At one point, I was 8-1 on Over-Under bets, 3-0 on Upset Money Line bets.


You can look at my previous posts, and determine if I can remain unbiased on the Cowboys, its division rivals, and other NFC teams. Look more carefully at the stats: DAL has 6 pro-bowl players on Offense, GB has 4. DAL RB Murray leads the league in rush yards and TDs. DAL WR Bryant leads the league in receiving TDs. DAL Kicker Bailey has NFL record for career FG accuracy. DAL QB Romo leads league in passer rating and completion rate. DAL is unbeaten 8-0 on the road.


Through unbiased analysis, even with a healthy Rodgers, the Cowboys are the better team! With Rodgers injured ... whatever!

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I'd be lying if I said I had any insight into who will win an NFL game

BTW, if you had no insight on an NFL game, how can you make the following statement?

... too close to be an advantage play for sure.

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[Aslan]

Based on YOUR previous analysis, it seemed too close. Plus the fact that all NFL games are too close to even consider betting due to the point spread.

The only thing you have shown in this most recent post is that the spread has shifted a mere .5 from +6 to +5.5 due to Rodgers' prosepcts, and from all the places I have checked, many if not most are staying at +6. All other factors you just recently mentioned were known when the point spread went to +6. How does this justify any change in prospects unless others like yourself have not yet had time to register this new prospect you mentioned with a shift in betting to cover their butts, meaning that by game time it should be at least even or in Dallas' favor despite home field advantage. I'll keep checking tonight. You make what seems like a convincing argument, but I'm still waiting for the last minute money to support what you're saying.

Do you think all the betting is lopsided due to emotional betting? Do bookies book landslides even when they are known in advance? I know that as long as there is balance in the betting they don't need to move, but wouldn't they if they saw a chance to make some easy money?

You're the expert. Let's see what happens.

[Math Demon]

Based on YOUR previous analysis, it seemed too close. Plus the fact that all NFL games are too close to even consider betting due to the point spread.

The only thing you have shown in this most recent post is that the spread has shifted a mere .5 from +6 to +5.5 due to Rodgers' prosepcts, and from all the places I have checked, many if not most are staying at +6. All other factors you just recently mentioned were known when the point spread went to +6. How does this justify any change in prospects unless others like yourself have not yet had time to register this new prospect you mentioned with a shift in betting to cover their butts, meaning that by game time it should be at least even or in Dallas' favor despite home field advantage. I'll keep checking tonight. You make what seems like a convincing argument, but I'm still waiting for the last minute money to support what you're saying.

Do you think all the betting is lopsided due to emotional betting? Do bookies book landslides even when they are known in advance? I know that as long as there is balance in the betting they don't need to move, but wouldn't they if they saw a chance to make some easy money?

You're the expert. Let's see what happens.

To All:

My purpose for posting picks has been (and still is) to gather opinions on whether the picks I have made seems valid or not. It has NEVER BEEN to convince other people to follow what I do. My Forum taglines clearly warn people to "draw your own conclusions"!

I will continue to make picks. But lately, there have NOT been constructive feedback (on the picks) being provided by others. I see no more value in posting my picks. I could be retarding other newbies' development. Thus, win or lose, these are the last picks I will be posting.

DAL to win over GB ML+220 (3.20x)
DAL + 6 at GB
SEA - 10.5 vs CAR

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To Tthree:

I don't pick AFC match-ups as accurately. Of all the handicappers here, I trust and respect Tthree the most.

Hey Tthree! What do you think of these:
BAL + 7 at NE
DEN - 7 vs IND

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To Aslan:

The point spread is NOT a bookmaker's prediction of the game's outcome. It is a "made up" number they had determined which would most probably balance the betting on either side. They usually reflect team and player stats, injuries, game location, and trends; but it also reflects the public's perception of the teams and key players.


Perception: GB does NOT lose at Lambeau, specially in the playoffs! Reality: Two out of GB's last 3 playoff losses are AT Lambeau. The last Divisional playoff game at GB resulted in a GB loss.

Perception: It's very difficult to win on the road. Reality: The Cowboys are unbeaten 8-0 on the road. 4 out of 5 unbeaten road teams reached the Superbowl. The other one lost in the Conference Championship.

Perception: GB Rodgers is playing at MVP level. Reality: The injured calf will limit his capabilities; and may subject him to the pass rush, and further injury.

Perception: Romo plays badly in December and after. Reality: Romo is 5-0 overall, 3-0 on the road in December and after.
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Regarding the accuracy of the point spread: Of the 260 games played in 2014, there had been one (1) game where the point spread reflected the margin of victory: Sept 28, PHI @ SFO. Just 22% of games ended within 3 points of the spread.


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