First: There's almost zero chance Chicago trades Cutler in 2015 unless a team like Arizona, Houston, or Buffalo gets involved. With the only realistic option in my mind being Buffalo. Even so, they won't take the contract. Chicago is married to Cutler for 2015 and he's being pressured as the scapegoat for 2014 while their HC likely gets fired in the off season, as well as a 50/50 on their GM.
Second: I find it completely ironic that you call ME the "stat guy" when all you've done throughout this thread is look at box score statistics. I look at trends, I'm a "trend" guy. Historical trends predominantly more so than anything else. Home teams win at home more often than not, away teams win less away more often than not, and Dallas AND Romo lose in December/January more often than not (heading into this year). I don't look at qb statistics like yardage and completion percentage and qb rating as an "all important" statistic, because they aren't. Garbage time has a tendency to bloat those statistics as teams that are behind by 2 scores tend to face prevent defenses giving up larger chunks of yardage and 1st downs, as they try to chew up the clock, while trying to limit the "huge" plays. Conversely, teams that win have a higher tendency to run the ball. If Denver is up by 45 points in the 2nd half, Manning will throw the ball on an "as needed" basis to convert first downs on 3rd and long situations or advantageous 3rd and short plays, but the team will run the ball every single snap of the game so long as they aren't forced into a passing situation while they are up multiple scores, that's just how the NFL works, this isn't College. Dallas being a "nationally marketed team" has absolutely no relevant information in this thread, or in anything, at all. This is literally the first time since 2009 that Dallas has been "relevant" to the NFL, and it took them until their 2nd year without having to compete against Andy Reid to clinch their division. We've already gone over your "bogus" claim that Dallas faces "contenders" outside of their division in the last half of the year, I've already debunked that theory and added statistical record keeping to further prove that. Beyond that, they are not "unique" in having to face important division matchups in the 2nd half of the season, that stands for EVERY division in the NFL. I wasn't "lucky" early on, hell, I started picking on this forum in the 2nd half of the year when the 2nd games of divisional rivalries (historically the hardest to pick and the most "opposite" of the first matchup) and I've just recently after a few bad weeks gone under .500 having to pick through the part of the season that EVERYONE, including you, should know to be the worst portion of the season to pick through. Rarely are guys ever even remotely close (over many iterations of seasons) to picking the last 1/4th of the season close to the first 3/4ths. On top of that, I didn't pick AGAINST Dallas just because they tend to "shit the bed" in December/January, I voiced opinion against them because they had a very tough schedule down the 2nd half of the season, very close in toughness to what Kansas City had to face (KC being one of the hardest schedules to face, SD was right there as well). However, of course I added Romo's historical record ON TOP of that mix, he's not a QB that "wins" you games with his arm, the whole reason Dallas has been successful this year has been by taking the ball out of Romo's arm and putting it into Murray's hands. When he has had to throw the ball, they've limited his reads and progressions so that his "problematic" decision making has been nullified and it has worked GREAT this year especially so "down the stretch" this season, to the point where I truly believe that Dallas might be the "Dark Horse" team to beat this season in the NFC, but ultimately Romo will have to go against Brady, Manning, or Luck, and I don't see Romo being able to compete in a "shootout" game, that is if he can even get there and doesn't have Garret get out-coached by Bellicheat in a NE vs. DAL game, which is the last thing Romo would want to face off against.
Third: I like how almost the entire emphasis of this whiny little post of yours is just comment and paragraph after the next about or directed at me. T3, I am a very football smart person because I played the game, but the reason that gets brought up here by me, is because of your misunderstanding of how the game of football works, and why certain statistics are the way they are, because you yourself are the "stat man", not me. I've explained time and time again this year in this thread about why you shouldn't make judgement based on X statistic or Y statistic in your posts because X statistic or Y statistic is merely a byproduct of Z action or A action, with B and C being the reality for the "result" of your X and Y statistics. You made a huge emphasis on Dallas winning because they ran well, and then carried that theory on to other teams like Baltimore, where I eviscerated your "Claim" that they lost three games because they "abandoned" the run, and they didn't. I proved that completely false and misguided. Its as if you were having such a bad year trying to figure the NFL out, that you focused on one of your favorite teams or players' successes, and tried to extrapolate the "reason" and apply it to other teams, it just doesn't work that way. Dallas did well this season by putting a super-star offensive line together to both run block and pass block, something they haven't done very well in the last 6 years. Then they pulled the "reigns" back in on Romo a touch and limited his decision making so they could really remain effective in the passing game while trying to maintain ball control and ToP with the Running game that they've historically struggled with since Emmitt's days.
Lastly: What reason do I have to be "humbled"? I've picked "well" on the O/U picks this year despite the competitive didsadvantage of making my picks well into the 2nd half of the season where historical statistics and just about every "honest" handicapper will tell you the "pickings are tough". The only thing I've been "wrong" about, are those picks. I've time and time again been "right" by arguing with you in this thread about the misusage of "statistics" as a product, rather than as a byproduct.
Now, of course, there are things I have surely been wrong about, like saying Dallas wouldn't beat Philly and Indy down the stretch, but that's less analysis and more like a pragmatic approach to thinking about team success. Without jumping on the bandwagon, nobody thinks with a right mind that they could have done that, but they did, and now just about everyone has to look at Dallas legitimately this year and ask the question, are they the REAL team to beat? Everyone knew Arizona was a "false god" of the NFC, and having wins handed to them left and right by officials down the stretch (KC game specifically). And of course, Rodgers took a shot to the reputation in that Buffalo game, the same week that T3 and I argued about Rodgers being "the best". Coincidence or perfectly timed sign from god that T3 needed to take a chill pill? You decide. Either way, The Packers Defense looks beatable, Dallas matches up well against them, and now the Cowboys are in a 5 way tie for the 2 byes and Home Field advantage, holding the worst Conference record of all 5 combatants, but looking to have a 4 way tie with GB, Seattle, and Arizona at the end of the season with the AFC having essentially an "off week" as far as playoff seeding is concerned, unless you're from the AFC north.
As for my picking expertise, T3, and my "record" of all things, not just the forum. I've explained to you before that NFL handicapping is not only something I do as a pre-requisite for my Fantasy Football, which takes precedence above all things, but that I have to actually analyze everything at the PLAYER level, not the team level, and far and beyond just box score statistics, live you've been proven to do all season long.
To give you an idea of what I do here T3, using Dez Bryant as an example. From week to week, I have to analyze the defense Dez will face, not in a sense of their statistics, but in a sense of whether they play a press-man, Tampa-2, does the defense have a Corner covering a specific part of the field, or does their defense do target-specific matchups like a Rodgers-Cromartie vs. Dez, or is it Dez vs. LCB/RCB. My job, literally in this sense since I do get paid to post on several sites for fantasy football, is to analyze and forecast the matchups using this information. Why else would I tell people to start Harry Douglas last week for Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh in a PPR league where Julio Jones wouldn't be playing? Or laying off starting Jamaal Charles, the most "matchup tolerant" Running Back in this league all season in fantasy football THIS week vs. the same team? When I see that there's a very big mismatch here, T3, from a fantasy perspective, that generally lends itself to be an emphasis to exploit or limit in a game from a coaching perspective, and so I need to analyze from there how each coach adjusts his team and how each coordinator adjusts their scheme and play calling to exploit or avoid such a matchup.
In any given game, in any given week T3, I've already done at least 4 hours more research on each individual game than you have, more than just taking 5 minutes to look at the box score statistics and say, well, they are the home team against a weak road team, and the home team has the QB with the best QBR and the most "balanced" Run-Pass districution. Which is exactly why throughout all of my analysis on this forum for the O/U games, or the arguments thereafter due to them, I've had a huge emphasis on the PLAYER rather than the team, and why I've made it a point to explain some of those mismatches to you and to this forum that might make or break what "appears" on paper to be a "good pick".
PERFECT EXAMPLE, this week I spoke about the Cardinals and Seahawks, I pointed out that Lindley would be their starter, and that he'd never thrown a single touchdown pass in his career, but had thrown 7 interceptions. Later on a guy like ZK who has no real clue what he's doing here and figured he'd pick the most advantageous lines at the end of the year so he could "look good" picks a game like Arizona saying they didn't "rely" on QB play to win, because of the spread. Gets ROASTED by the line in what turned out to be a blowout game where Arizona was rendered useless beacuse of an offense that couldn't move and a Defense that was forced to spend way too much time on the field. 33:03 to 26:57 ToP difference in large part due to Wilson's legs extending drives, and the team milking the clock every drive, something I believe I may have also mentioned about this week when I made my picks.
Funny should should bring up the "popular quarterback" comment, in reference to flags, as I've used DPI calls "in favor" this year to influence picks as well as discourage some picks that I've considered making. Those DPI's "in favor" are going to grow in "significance" as we come into a post season in the first time in a LONG while, where there are going to be a number of the "top10-15" passing QB's in the league, in the playoffs. In fact, I'll make a post after the week 17 games have concluded and the playoff spots are clinched, to show you where each team/starting QB ranks in "in favor" DPI calls offensively, I think this entire forum is going to be a little bit more than "surprised" by the result.
Use of replay has indeed changed the game, though its impact is a hard one to determine, and coach challenges (statistically) are so wildly variant you can't even really use that statistic to influence a game pick, though I will say in 2013 and now in 2014, many teams have lost their playoff spot due to the NFL blowing calls left and right. Last year in a KC game, a team made and missed the playoffs to a BAD call in week 17. Ironically, twice this year KC has lost games to bad calls or bad reviewed calls, which will definitely keep them out of the playoffs this year.
This week I went 2-3, putting me at 17-21 on the season for my deep 2nd half O/U picks, should have went with my Gut on that GB@TB game though, even though I "called" it, I'd never count it unless it had a number next to it :P
From the projected lines I"m seeing for week 17, it should be another rough week for O/U picks, but I have zero fear on this one, hell, I might O/U pick the entirety of week 17 on this forum for shits and giggles if these lines move a little.
In other news, went 6-0 this week in fantasy playoffs in one of the "toughest" weeks I've had to call against for matchups. I don't think you guys know how hard it is to watch the progression of Murray, Gore, Jones, and Hilton all week because you have the 4 of them on just about every team in 6 different leagues, and have to have a "just in case" ready to go with a solid matchup should your guy be ruled out (Like TY Hilton), and then couple that player management with Saturday/Sunday games instead of just Sunday, and THEN add on the holiday season with it (had christmas with one half of my family this Sunday) and let me tell you guys, that was a very hard task to juggle when you've assumed the role of "jungle gym" to your nieces and nephews, while simultaneously trying to switch your lineups in one hand and keep the kids from pulling the Dogs Tail all day.
Rough stuff, but we made it guys. Happy Hollidays to all.
And to T3, happy hollidays to you, you grumpy little pencil pusher
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