Need an inspirational speech

[SiMi]

Hey ChuckD!

Maybe this will help...

I never really questioned the legitimacy of the card counting literature because the only thing I read at first was "Beat the Dealer" (BTD) and it was clear to me that the author was not a Snake Oil Salesman, if you know what I mean. I read BTD in late-1978/early-1979 and tried it for the first time in Reno in 1979. At that time, there was no internet and very little literature available (the only thing in my library was BTD) but it was OBVIOUS to me that Thorp was on to something because we played SD back then and you could EASILY keep track of the Aces on your feet. If your feet go back to FLAT, there ARE NO MORE ACES and you KNOW there will be no more Blackjacks. So, this one fact was all I needed to see in action to realize how powerful counting was. If you play SD with DEEP pen, you will quickly realize that counting cards gives you a real edge because you can adjust your play but the Dealer cannot. At times, you KNOW what's coming out!

Then, I got my hands on "Professional Blackjack" by Stanford Wong and, again, it was OBVIOUS to me that he was no moron with a get-rich-quick scheme. I like math a lot and his books just rang true to me. Then, I TRIED to read Peter Griffin's "The Theory of Blackjack" and, again, it was OBVIOUS that this guy was f-ing smart as hell and he wouldn't have taken the time to study BJ and write about it unless he knew he could, at least theoretically, get an edge. Then, more books came out and TV shows and a movie or two, etc. and it seemed as if almost everyone realized you could get an edge (small, though it is) with CC. At that point, the edge was being over-stated and I think people expected FAR too much from CC.

To me, it's OBVIOUS you can get an edge with CC and I've been DOING IT for 35 years, eventually progressing to 6D games. I've written computer programs that simulate the game and show an edge and I know EVERY LINE OF CODE IS LEGIT. IMHO, if you're concerned about the legitimacy of the literature and you're still interested in CC, you need to take the time to understand "Beat The Dealer" and the math underlying CC theory. It's not necessary, though, because, frankly, at this point, doubting the legitimacy of CC is kind of like doubting that we landed on the moon!

Keep in mind that the theory and simulations follow the plan EXACTLY and never deviate. They are NOT realistic in that sense because people make mistakes and the conditions do NOT allow you to play and bet like a robot. So, your mileage may vary. The more you can stick to a good plan, the better off you'll be. I've found it's important to practice a lot because your skills can slip and you can develop bad habits, get lazy and start to act like a degenerate gambler when things go South. Reading this forum will help keep you sharp and interested in CC and motivated to practice and learn more! Also, understanding N0 was a BIG help to my discipline.

Best of "good variance"
SiMi

[SiMi]

Hello, Moses!

If ChuckD doesn't mind, I'm fine with the new direction. I follow your observation about possibly burning 2 tens on a late-in-a-good-deck 7,7 split vs. 4. This kind of thought enters my mind when I'm in the last few rounds of a great pen. 6D shoe and I'm "supposed" to split something like that. I normally play it "by the book" but a couple of times, I've stood in a heads-up game to try to save the 10's I know are still waiting to come out. Honestly, I can't recall what happens when I've done that - it's so rare for me to deviate like that. I should really look into this since I'm clearly fuzzy on this point...

The variance, as everyone says, is TOUGH when you're playing at a level that really matters to you. We all know that sinking feeling of getting farther and farther in the hole despite "perfect" play and good conditions. I'm in one of those bad swings right now and it's tough... It REALLY hurts and that's why I admire people such as KJ who do it with style and grace. FWIW, I play beneath my theoretically-correct Max. level so that RoR is zero and those swings don't hurt quite as much. It's kind of like living beneath your means (which I also do) so you can sleep well at night. But, I admire people who totally TRUST THE MATH and play it balls-out!

I first read Wong's Professional Blackjack back when deep pen. SD games were still around in Nevada, as I recall, but they were starting to go away. As you say, EoR was explored by Griffin but it's tough reading, frankly, due to the math. Don S. has material on it in BJA3, as well that I should review.

We can easily sim all the games now so our lives are MUCH easier than Thorp's world. His insights always amaze me because of the lack of knowledge on the subject at the time and the pure Mental Horse Power he brought to the issue. It must have been THRILLING to go to a Casino for the first time and see it work! No one would believe he had an edge so he could do WHATEVER HE WANTED!!!

I was so excited my first time counting in a Casino, I almost pissed myself. I got BO'd because I was a real moron about playing and counting and I probably stood out like a porcupine at a nudist colony!

Thanks for sharing!
SiMi

[MJGolf]

Chuck: You want inspiration and proof math and knowledge works? And you have played for 10 years? Well then just go back and "reminisce" about that time period and how the game has changed. Don't you recall the variety of games, single deck, double deck, and liberal rules that existed at one time? How the casinos have almost all gone to multi-deck, H17, tightened the playing rules in that period of time? Shoot look at Wizard of Vegas site now listing Blackjack conditions:

http://wizardofvegas.com/guides/blac...=decks&dir=asc

I think there are only 6 sites mentioned or games with SINGLE deck. Look at the paucity of stand 17 rules and games. THOSE USED to be the norm; NOT the exception. No mid-shoe entry on many tables. If just observation of the changes and reaction of the casino personnel and game changes doesn't prove that AP works, aside from the math, nothing will.

Practice more; enjoy the game more; believe in the math and yourself and get BACK on the horse and hit the house for what you can!!