Hi, ChuckD!
I put your game in CVCX and got an EV of 1.7% and an N0 right at 10,000 rounds. Is that what you get?
You say you've played 100 hours. At 80-100 RPH, I'm guessing you are getting close to 10,000 rounds and thus nearing N0.
If you played 10,000 rounds with an EV of 1.7% and an average bet of about $29 (given your aggressive ramp), your total EV would be:
$29 avg bet per round x 10,000 rounds x .017 EV = $4,930.
So, your expectation would be to be AHEAD about $5,000 at N0. And, at N0, you have an 84% chance of NOT being in the hole. Despite this, you say you are $5,000 down which is almost exactly 1 standard deviation.
At N0, you can be 1 standard deviation behind EV and still not be in the hole. Here, however, you are probably close to N0 and you are 2 standard deviations behind EV. The odds of that are small.
You have a standard deviation of $500 per hour so the $1,500 busts seem high.
It's possible I'm missing something or it's just really bad variance but the odds seem against you being behind at this point.
I'm sure that's why you're writing...
You say your counting is perfect and your betting is good so that rules out mistakes at the table, I guess.
If I were facing this, I'd spend even more time on CVCX and CVBJ to be sure everything is the way I think it is and that I'm playing the game I think I am and playing it correctly. If it all checks out, I'd have to conclude it's just bad variance and I'd soldier on.
These games seem well worth playing and I'm curious about the intriguing option to "add a hand." How does that work and how do you sim it?
Also, I would change my bet ramp as others have said.
Best of luck!
SiMi
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