Win Percentage minus DD, splits and blackjacks

[jonesj2]

I am working on my own counting system and I am showing an overall profit but all my profits are solely from double down, splits and blackjacks. I am negative on the straight bets even when the deck is in my favor. If I could get positive returns for these hands when the deck is in my favor it would increase my overall return considerablly. It would be helpful if I had somethng to compare against. Any help is appreciated, like percentage wins for straight bets when the deck is player friendly for any blackjack counting system. A straight bet is a hand when double down or split is not the recommended play and player does not get a blackjack. The rules I am using are no surrender, dealer hits soft 17 and player can double down on any two cards.

Thanks in advance for any help.

[manley]

It only makes since that your chances are 50/50 unless the rules suck or if you know what cards coming next( if you figure out how to do this let me know lol) Your moneys made on double downs splits and naturals which is why most ap players usually break it down into an hourly when rate based of yourbankroll. Bigger bank bigger "expected" return. Remember if the counts high the dealer in reality has the same chance of winning the hand or getting a natural as you do

[Dif]

Consider the following:

First, a "normal" round, in which the player busts and then the dealer busts. The player lost one bet, the dealer lost nothing. The dealer always has this advantage with normal hands.
Next, consider the player getting a blackjack. Gets paid 150% his bet. Next round, the dealer gets a blackjack. The dealer only gets 100% of the players bet. The player always has the advantage with blackjacks.

If, at the end of the day, the amount of blackjacks the dealer got was equal to the amount of blackjacks the player got, the player would be ahead. However, if only looking at non-bj hands, and the amount of player/dealer busts were equal, the player would be behind.

Same applies to double downs and splits. The player can go beyond his normal bet when it's in his favor.

[jonesj2]

Thanks to everyone for the reponses. The information is very helpful. Now I can work on other areas of my system and not waste time on straight hands, just grin and bear it! Thanks again.

[Aslan]

Remember if the counts high the dealer in reality has the same chance of winning the hand or getting a natural as you do

Actually, the dealer has a better chance of winning the hand than the player, as he normally does. The player normally has about a 43% chance of winning a hand, and in plus counts he has a fraction more. The dealer has about a 48% chance of winning the hand. Therefore, you can expect to lose most of your hands even in plus counts. I know it's a bummer, but it does demonstrate the absolute necessity of winning some double downs and splits, as well as, getting some naturals.

[steveistheman84]

if you played a deck that had no aces, but had an extremely high count of tens, you are still at a disadvantage. that should give you an idea of where the money comes from.