One of the keys to winning at sports betting is to be able to make an ACCURATE READ OF A GAME AFTER IT HAS BEEN PLAYED. Mot bettors are great at whining about 'right sides that lost.' (This actually DOES HAPPEN but is overstated by nearly all earnee bettors.) A bigger key is being able to realize that one 'had the wrong side of a BET THAT WON.' This is something virtually no one can do.
I well still remember trying to explain to a major betting earnee why I 'bet the wrong side' in the seventh game of the 2010 NBA Finals--despite winning the bet (took the Celtics at +7 1/2 over the Lakers in their covering 79-83 loss). I felt that--for one game--that the Celtics would overcome the injury loss of Kendrick Perkins (injured early in a Game 6 Celtic rout loss)--and quite possibly win this game.
In Game 7, it was soon evident that the Celtics badly missed Perkins. As I pointed out several times to this betting earnee (who just nodded and never heard/hears a word I say), the Lakers had an incredible 13 possessions in this game in which they missed two shots or more and ended up with zero points on these possessions (in an average NBA game, a team has about six such non-scoring multiple shot possessions)--most of which involved Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol missing easy layups.
Anyway, below I write about last week's Colt-Bronco game--a game I gave over -3.00 on. Yes, the game did win. However, I now much feel that giving anything over -2.00 on it was a poor value bet. Read the pre- and post-game views on it.
Pre-Game View
Broncos -3.88 (Money Line Play) or less over Colts: To win a small play.
Many betting earnees give lines-makers far too much respect. When they see what is sometimes a line which DOES have great value, they get scared and nearly soil their pants in fear of the game ‘being a trap’ and wonder why (especially overrated) ‘esteemed market-forces’ might seem to like the other side.
Trust it from ‘the horse’s mouth.’ The people who make lines on NFL games are NOT almighty geniuses (and in fact are total jokes when compared to the great Head Linesmaker of years back in Bob—AKA The Inhaling Mushroom—Martin; who is STILL far superior making numbers even now over 13 years after his death!) and are NOT trying to ‘trap’ anyone.
In the above vein, consider: when these teams met last season in Week Seven in Indy (in a most fortunate 39-33 Colt win), the Broncos were 6 ½ point ROAD favorites. Thus, if that game had been played IN Denver (the location of this Sunday night’s game), the Broncos would have been -11 ½ or -12 favorites. The question thus is: have the Colts ‘gained’ four or 4 ½ points (with the present line being -7 ½ for the Broncos) in value since that game. In a word: NO!
Let’s now take a quick look at the two ‘pieces of merchandise’ in this game.
Colts: As was the case with the Chiefs, the Colts were a most lucky team in 2013. Like the 2013 Chiefs, the Colts went a lucky 11-5 last season. They had just a +2 ratio (40-38) ratio in touchdowns: a mark of an 8-8 or at best a 9-7 club. Their +13 ratio in takeaways had some luck to it in that the Colts lost just four of their 14 offensive fumbles.
For most of the season, the Colts were most suspect on defense, especially versus the run. I don’t see this changing much in 2014, especially with key linebacker Robert Mathis suspended the first four games and probably their best 2013 run stopper (Fili Moala) out for the season. The front seven will have four new starters on Sunday night; none of these four new starters has shown much thus far this season. The secondary has two new starters.
Facing this below average defense is a Bronco team that not only wants revenge for their 2013 loss at Indy (a loss which I am sure that Bronco quarterback—remember he WAS a Colt star—Peyton—AKA Two Course TV Dinner Forehead AKA The Retired Mummy—Manning well remembers, especially since he was ‘roughed up’ in this game) but seems obsessed in bouncing back from a franchise low point (last season’s Super Bowl 8-43 disaster). Despite the (VERY overhyped) loss of Wes Welker (an old receiver that the Broncos are already trying to replace over the long run with a far younger Emmanuel Sanders), the Broncos should have a big day on offense.
While the Colts DO have a superb quarterback in Andrew Luck he has major problems with his supporting cast. The interior of the Colt line has two new starters (with a huge question mark at center this week) and this line has been most porous in pass protection thus far. Like virtually any other quarterback, Luck has problems when facing strong pressure. The Colt running game does not seem good enough to stop what figures to be great Bronco defensive pressure.
Somewhat due to their Super Bowl rout loss, the Broncos much ‘toughened up’ their defense in the off-season by the additions of great pass rusher De Marcus Ware and two good secondary players (TJ Ward and the more inconsistent Aquib Talib). In addition, linebacker Von Miller, who was often hurting in 2013 (missed seven entire games) now appears back to the strong form of his first two NFL seasons.
Thus, in summary, we have a Bronco team with a much improved defense and an offense certainly not much worse than their record 2013 one. On the other side, we have a Colt offense that seems worse (with its offensive line problems) than 2013 and a defense about as weak as last year’s version.
Thus, on the spread, GIVING the Colts four or 4 ½ MORE points of value than they had in 2013 seems ridiculous. Since I don’t wager on favorites in the first four weeks of an NFL season (and most seldom like to give over -3 in ANY regular season game), I feel that the value here is with the money line. With my power rating on this game being Broncos -13 ½ (which translates to -7.00 on the money line), they have all the value here. Laying -3.88 or less gives the Broncos over a 10% value edge in this game (if one could lay the best available money line of -3.10, this value edge increases to 15.8%).
Wanting revenge for last season’s loss to the Colts and wanting to get this ‘Super Bowl Revenge’ season off to a good start in front of their wild fans in a nationally televised Sunday night game also helps the Bronco cause.
As an old (and sadly long deceased) friend of mine named Cabbage Ear would probably say, “Hey, Bobbie (Cabbage Ear’s nickname for me), the Broncos should win this game COMFORTABLY!!”
Yes, I Was Wrong About the Colts--even if we won the bet going against them!
Post-Game View
No question in my mind. Last week when we gave -3.30 on the Broncos (in a money line play), we got lucky or in correct betting terms from the few earners out there (as I am and as each of you are—and certainly all of you have, in the least, an earning mind-set), “we made more than what we earned.” Or in laying -3.30 (or probably ANYTHING over -2.00—as we all did), “We had the wrong side.”
As pointed out in last week’s round-up, the Broncos had EVERY emotional/psychological edge in this game. Revenge (against Manning’s old team on top of that), wanting to bounce back from a disgrace loss in the Super Bowl, plus one of the most wild home fans in the NFL under the national TV lights.
The Colts just wanted to survive and maybe hang in there and try, at best, (seemingly knowing they had little chance at) to ‘steal one.’
Until the last two minutes of the first half, all of my insights seemed brilliant. The Broncos led the Colts 24-0 (scoring on all four of their possessions and having a huge time of possession edge) against what looked like a very tired and outmatched Colt defense in the high altitude of Denver. Seemingly a game ‘to put in the W column’ and chirp about. (“What a great bet I made. One of the best in the history of organized sports!”) However, NFL games are 60 minutes, not 28. Plus the Colts had Andrew Luck who has made a habit of ‘rescuing lost causes.’ But this seemed like a tough and tall order even for him.
But he nearly did it. And if not for some bad luck (no pun intended) WOULD HAVE DONE IT!!
Many NFL comebacks are just ‘stat stuffers’ which have meaningless stats and scores in ‘garbage-time’ which merely fool people who had the losing side fool themselves into thinking that they ‘really had the right side’ and ‘were unlucky.’ One game fitting that description last week was the 49er-Cowboy game. In that game, at all key junctures, the 49ers controlled the action. At 7-0, (after a ‘lucky fumble return for a TD’) the Cowboys marched to a first and goal at the 49er 2. 49er defense forced them to settle for a FG and prevented the game from being tied. RIGHT AFTER this, the 49ers had a quick 80-yard TD drive to increase their lead to 14-3. Right before the half, the 49ers had another long TD drive (64 yards in nine plays) to put the game to bed at 28-3. That the Cowboys had two long second half GARBAGE TIME TD drives (the last of which ended with under two minutes to go) which gave them stat edges in the game MEANT NOTHING—except to betting earnee/tout like Phil Steele (who treats yardage stats—often meaningless—with the reverence that religious zealots give to the Dead Sea Scrolls) and other media betting earnees.
However what the Colts did in the second half DID have big meanings. With one exception, their defense stopped the Denver offense (on a TD drive making it 31-10 where the Broncos had a HUGE BREAK in recovering an offensive fumble which three Colts seemed to have a shot at) on five of six meaningful possessions. This included a defensive three and out they got with the score at 31-24 which gave them a realistic chance to tie the game.
Plus, the Colt defense never quit—Bronco great offense, high altitude and all—despite some rough offensive breaks (getting just three points on first two possessions of the second half out of two first and goals with one ‘stopped’ on a rather lucky ‘in the grasp call’ against Luck—ball was handed off to Bradshaw who got a TD which was disallowed). No, they hung in there and easily could have won the game—and remember had ALL OF THE PSYCHOLOGY WORKING AGAINST THEM IN IT!!
The Colt defense, despite many players missing and others being huge question marks, played great in crunch-time and made my pre-game view of them look kind of stupid. Their offense, even with a huge step down at center, was able to move the ball well against an obviously improved Bronco defense.
Hope that the above shows why it is MANDATORY to look at the ENTIRE GAME and be willing to admit to mistakes—which my pre-season C- power rating on the Colts was. Most touts and the betting earnees that fill the media (a superb long ago columnist from the “Cleveland Plain Dealer” named Hal Liebowitz was a notable exception and would have noted everything I just did about this game and MAYBE EVEN MORE) would ignore what I wrote and just do endless self-back patting and forms of mental masturbation as to how good this game made them feel.
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