Me, or ZK? I already got out of ELTP, Trulia, and Zillow. Took my loss on his shitshow of a pump and dump, made a few figures on my realty sites and got out. Now I'm staring at GE in the face, post Dividend, trying to figure out if their CEO nonsense is a concern.Originally Posted by Tthree
You do realize that what is happening to your stock is like the equivalent of playing through a -5TC max betting, right?Oh NO, not a month of red LOL, let me know in 1-2 years when Elite launches 3-4 ART products, the reason I'm in this stock. I'm not in it for the daily short term fluctutions of red, im in it for the ART and thats later this year with a possible launch as early as early summer 2015.
We've went over this a million times by the way. You love trading and it seems you're so knowledgable about it. So please forget about blackjack and just start trading, it's so easy to make money. Let me know how bad Uncle Sam gets ya and let me know how many times you fail to time the market LOL.
See ya in 1-2 years, but im glad you can keep me up to date on worthless red days and months, ask me in two minutes if im worried LOL. I hope it stays red for the next 2-3 months so I can accumulate more.
It is for that precise reason that I keep questioning you since your stock and BJ game are very, very different methodologies.
If you truly are in it because you believe this company is the next big thing, awesome, but understand that it is not a sure thing, and its like betting on a horse race picking the horse with the highest bang/bust factor, having the ability to cash out while he's ahead, and deciding to press it after he's broken his leg with .5 mile to go.
You did not just quote Buffet, not knowing where it came from, in a discussion about a penny stock.Why you so smart bro? Is it hereditary?
Im glad you sold, cheaper shares for me, as Ill keep accumulating. Im glad I did my own DD.
'When people are fearful, im greedy' -Warren Buffet
A PENNY STOCK!!!!!!!!!!
This guy right here gets it, probably has a nice stock portfolio like mine, and probably does as much DD as I do, and probably more.
1 BP playing 2 hands (say, $100 each for simplicity) has less EV than 2 BP's who are each playing 2 hands of $100 each. However, 1 BP playing 2 hands of $200 each has more EV than 2 BP's playing 2 hands of $100 each.
1x400 > 2x200 > 4x100 > 2x100
Playing 2x100 has less EV than 1x200 because 2x100 uses up more cards (thus, less rounds). You spread to 2 hands for heat reasons (ie: so you don't have to exceed the $100/hand, $500/hand, $1000/hand threshold that sends off alarms). Instead of 1x1000, you might bet 2x750 (same EV) so you don't trigger that $1000 threshold.
So, in a way, Zenking is right -- 2 BPs is more EV than 1 BP if they are betting the same amounts. But in the end, you're never gonna send 2 BPs to the same table (you want the casino to connect the 2 BPs? are there even enough seats open for 2 BPs [in ideal conditions]?). You're better off 1 BP betting 2x200 than 2 BP's each betting 2x100. 1 BP is more EV than 2, in this case....and am gonna make a wild stab in the dark and say 1 BP would be less heat. 2 random players decide to sit at the same table, bet large amounts, then both quit after the shoe is over....yet neither know each other? yeah....?
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
This is only true if you don't bet optimally. 1x200 optimal bet is 2x150 (2x146 is the true optimal bet bet that is not a practical bet. Most everyone uses 2x75% of the optimal 1 spot bet). Once you get to more than two spots no matter how many big players are betting them you are eating your own cards and wasting resources as well as hurting your total EV.
Nothing has changed fundamentally at ELTP, sorry bro. The company is in the strongest position since 2008. Ill let the day traders trade and let the panic sellers panic, and let the profit takers take. See ya at end of year
Your stock of choice is fundamentally a TINY company ZK. Did you ever think about taking a capital gain in late February when the stock topped out at $0.90, dropping out of college and parlaying your gain on the felt as a full-time BJ player?
Last edited by Blitzkrieg; 07-31-2014 at 12:55 AM.
What would they be trading? The trading/holding volume of your stock has been falling in almost a predictable pattern prior to the earnings call, and has been slightly escalated since the call. The volume being traded has dropped nearly 150k shares in less than 2 weeks, the price has dropped about 11 cents (sitting at 33 now) since one month ago, and was dangerously close to closing sub 30 today, but was saved by a few sales at the end of the day.
On top of that, this stock hasn't seen the Dollar mark since March 2008', and quickly plummeted after its attempt to reach 95 cents.
Not to mention, the price spikes on your beloved penny stock are over until next year. Now, you said you've done some due diligence on this stock and berated others thinking they have not, but I've already spoken more about your stock trending than you have, and now I"m about to lay some more wisdom on you. If you go back and check the company calls, charts, and news bits surrounding Elite, you'll find that the company is most heavily traded between February-May, around the same time that a lot of the PR stunts are given about pharmaceuticals, and information regarding patent status' tend to come out. Ironically, or rather, not so ironically; The stock tends to flat line Mid August-November until trading picks back up again, but almost always makes a marked dive post Q4 Earnings call.
Do you know why? If you can honestly answer the question, I'll give you some credit. But if you avoid it, like you've always shown a propensity to do when someone questions your "legitimacy" from a stance with far more experience in the matter, consider yourself discredited across the forum to all interested stock parties. That is, if you haven't already done so.
You see, that would have been smart. If only someone would have advised him of that.........Your stock of choice is fundamentally a TINY company ZK. Did you ever think about taking a capital gain in late February when the stock topped out at $0.90, dropping out of college and parlaying your gain on the felt as a full-time BJ player?
And if you did ajust a little more DD you would know the summers of Elite are perfect times to accumulate more because of the slow volume, you'll regret selling, I guess you needed more DD. Besides, the past trading is irrevant and goes by the same theory of technical trading, past is the past and doesn't always dictate the future.
Last edited by ZenKinG; 08-02-2014 at 08:03 AM.
No it never crossed my mind...Your stock of choice is fundamentally a TINY company ZK. Did you ever think about taking a capital gain in late February when the stock topped out at $0.90, dropping out of college and parlaying your gain on the felt as a full-time BJ player?
Of course I thought about selling a partial amount but was waiting for it to hit around 1.10 or somewhere around that. Besides I only had about 35k shares at the time and with the capital gains tax I wasn't too excited about selling any at all and rather just ride it out cause even if it went down I know It would go back to these levels.
Hitting a target amount is what people do in the movies. In real life the spikes peak at almost the same time of day for the most part so you time to sell while everything is going up before the peak so you have plenty of buyers. If you are one of the many trying to sell after the peak the stock will drop a lot before you get your sale executed. Getting greedy for a little more money is what costs you. The other side of buffet's quote that you placed in the thread is panicked buyers trying to get in while the stock is going up. That is the perfect time to sell if you know at what time the peak is likely to hit. When the herd goes right you wait for the appropriate time and then you go left. That panicked herd moves the price artificially. Once the herd settles down the price tends to move back to where it was due to the greedy Buffet types taking advantage of the artificial moves. You keep backing up your sticking it out by saying nothing has changed fundamentally with the company. That should be the exact reason you are selling and rebuying or vise versa on the herd movement. Saying you don't want to make money on these opportunities because of the short term capital gains tax is showing your inexperience. If you can sell some stock and have a huge gain and buy it back on sale later to also have more stock than you started with and a huge gain is exactly what buffet was talking about. Take some losses on dog stocks if you want to cover some of the taxes. The point of investing is to make money not keep money from the government. You said you have had stock you bought years ago. You could have sold those shares at a long term capital gain. Of course the taxes may be bigger since you bought at .02 or something.
You are young so there is nothing wrong with buy and hold but you are missing great opportunities that would have you with even more shares than you have and a large profit on top of that. Just look at the history of the stock. The stock with such predictable peaks and falls should be an easy money maker. Risks are best suited to young investors. You invest in a risky sector and then are very cautious about your method of investing in the sector. The two strategies don't work well together.
I wish you wouldn't be so defensive all the time. Nobody is picking on you. Just people that know a lot more than you trying to help you maximize you potential. Try to take others suggestions more from that angle than thinking people are picking on you. You come out punching all the time and people will start picking on you. That is just human nature. If you want to learn and make the most you can and develop good networks among those that can help each other (very important for both AP and the stock market) try not to be so defensive. You are trying to make friends and allies to network with, not enemies.
Memory is an important part of AP play. You have already forgotten I was the one to point that out in a previous post but it also applies to panic buying. The herd buys when the see the bubble inflate due to buying pressure and then are too stupid to sell bef
You fail to realize that opportunity is just as strong when the herd panics buying as well as selling. If they are selling you can wait to buy and if they are buying you can wait for the perfect time to sell. Like I said it is not about predicting the price of the peak. That is too hard. It is about predicting the time of the peak and selling before the peak.
Looking at ELPT share price history, I don't see a fire sale. I see a stock that has no direction. There are forces engineering buying spikes to pump and dump but no real indication the stock has value. Unlike the better stocks ELPT is still worth a fraction of what it was before the crash in '07 where it was worth over $2.00 a share. Other Pharma's are worth 50% more or much higher (worth 150% of what it was before the crash) since the crash. ELPT is worth 1/7th of what it once was before the crash (14%). Some, like Gilead Sciences, held their value through the crash and are worth 450% of what they were before the crash today. That should have tell you something if you did your due diligence. Maybe you will get lucky and they will become such a company before you retire but that is the longest of long shots. You have the time to take such a gamble but it is foolish to do so with your entire portfolio. Diversity becomes very important later in your life but is never unimportant. You have all your eggs in one basket and with one narrow minded investment strategy. Not a good approach to investing.
Way to avoid the question posed to you, again. Its like anytime you don't have the right answer for a simple question we pose to you, you ignore it, thus killing your credibility over and over.
I'm never going to regret selling when I did ZK, because I sold your shitbag stock for a tiny loss (like 1700 dollars at max lost) and turned around and basically doubled my investment pool from the Elite trade, by splitting and diverging into Trulia and Zillow, hoping to go 1 for 2 on the chance that the Realogy deal would push investors towards online/mobile real estate applications.
I went 2 for 2 on that one by the way.
Another reason why I won't be sad about selling my shares of Elite? That stock is going to plummet. I told you it would be back in the 20's, and it traded friday more in the 20's than the 30's. its going to continue to plummet, closing nearly every day in August In or below the 20's. If it hits .12 again, and I suspect it will, I will buy the stock and hold it until February and wait for their prices to climb wildly again.
Few things you don't know that will eventually kill your investing dream.
1. Getting out when you've made solid enough profit from a stock. If at any time you double your total investment, you get out, or you at least set a floor for getting out, should the stock continue to rise.
2. Why the stock market moves fast in one part of the year (long climbers and huge price spikes), and then slow (long downhill runs and harsh negative price dips) in another part of the year.
3. Being able to identify those times of year
4. Proper due diligence rules out feelings for a stock. DD does not have anything to do with a "Feeling" or "gut feeling" or any kind of "hope" for the company. Feelings in the investment world will cloud the mind and lose you a ton of money.
5. Learn their products and the mass consumer view for those products. Is their twice daily anti-addiction narcotic a good thing for the world? Yes. And if it were just that, I'd sell everything in my world to invest in their company for preferred shares. But that's not it. The mass consumer view on them is that they are "doing good things" but have a lot of products with very little capital available because its all tied up in patents. This company is going to struggle immensely if they do not find a huge cash influx from an angel investor or large pharma hedge.
Do not be surprised one bit ZK, if they end up dropping a few patents and sticking to 1 or 2 drugs, and if they don't find their investors, end up selling their research to the likes of Pfizer for enough money to essentially become a subsidiary R&D for them.
You know so little about the business world, and its showing with this "hope" thing you keep preaching about. You keep telling me I'll regret selling, you tell the entire forum from your soapbox that we are all going to regret never buying into them, and next year you'll have the last laugh.
Meanwhile, everything I've foreseen about your company and posted on here, has come true. I said your stock price would drop, steadily, I said you'd see .20's in August, and it already has in July, but should trade in august almost predominantly in the 20's barring any miracle breakthrough. I'm also telling you that you won't see a large climb until February-May, and there's a reason for that you've yet to answer, and a large drop from July-December where the stock price essentially flatlines.
Mark my words ZK, your stock will hit .15 or less by the end of the year, and when that happens, I hope in the back of your mind you remember what I've told you. Not just that you were a fool for not selling out when you could for major profit, but that I predicted every little nuance of your pump and dump stock. I hope then, you'll decide NOT to sell out, as I expect you would, having been a sore loser. If you keep your stock until it hits .15, just hold it until February-May and have a sell order on it set for .48 and be done with that shitshow of a stock. I promise you the stock WILL see .53 again, but you need to be out of it. I'm not sure what your due diligence told you about your stock, or where you got your magical 1.10 number from, but if its been 6 or 7 years since your stock has seen the 1.xx mark, its probably not going to for a while.
You could have sold out, waited for it to drop, bought it back, and sold it when it got high again.
Twice you've had this opportunity to "Buffett", and twice you've ignored the opportunity to make serious cash, and on top of that, you're the guy quoting Buffett in the first place and missed every opportunity.
You do realize that you'd have at least 7-8 times the investment/holding that you started off with if you had done what any reasonable human being would have done, had you had the patience? Like right now is a good time to sell for you, as its the highest your stock "should" see until February-May again, so you could sell now, and when the price hits .15, and it will, jump back in for twice the shares. Voila! But you seem to hate money.
Bingo.
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