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Thread: Requesting help in TKO card counting system

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  1. #1


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    Quote Originally Posted by steger24 View Post
    I can't believe I forgot to mention this on my original post, but after reading your replies I noticed my mistake. We do in fact adjust our RC deviation indices as the shoe advances. For instance, after 1 deck at a 6 deck shoe, according to TKO, if the RC is at 9, you up your bet and begin S16 vs 10. At this point we would need the RC to advance plus15 in order to push out a max bet (at an RC of 24).
    Not correct.
    Assuming 6 decks and an initial running count of 0.
    A RC of 24 gives you essentially the same advantage and accurate index numbers anywhere in the shoe, a TC of +4.

    To calculate the true count take the RC, subtract 4 for each deck played (the unbalance built into KO), and divide by the number of decks unseen.

    1 deck in, when the RC 15, the TC is 2.2 (15-4)/5 ; this is too early for max bet unless the max bet is being dictated by low table max and not your bankroll. If you are pushing out your max at this point then you are over betting your BR.
    On an H17 game your edge at this point is less than 1%.

    Edit... just noticed that I may have misread what you wrote. If you meant that from the +9 RC point at 1 deck in, you need to wait for the RC to increase by an additional 15 (+24 total RC) then you are correct, and you can ignore the above. If, however, you meant that at 1 deck in you would push out your max be at a +15 RC then that's incorrect.

    Quote Originally Posted by steger24 View Post
    You will notice that we have new deviations every 2 RC numbers (16, 18, 20, 22, 24, etc). In this situation, we would begin s16vs10 at 9, and we would have 4 "steps" in between 16 and 24 (18, 20, 22, 24). So in this situation, we would divide the remaining 15 RC necessary to reach the deviations at 24 by the 4 "steps". Meaning that at 1 deck in, our deviations at 16 are used at a RC of 9, our deviations at 18 are used at an RC of 13, deviations at 20 at are used at an RC of 17, and deviations at 22 are used at an RC of 21, and finally 24 at 24. We do the same thing with adjusting our bet spread. Once we go over 24 however, our deviations remain absolute at the RC indicated, as we are under the impression that an RC of 28 1 deck in yields the same advantage as an RC of 28 at 5 decks in. Are we correct in this logic?
    Not correct. TC = RC only with 1 deck left to go (after adjusting for the unbalance).

    For example:
    2 decks in (4 decks to go) a RC of 28 = (28-8)/4 = TC 5;
    5 decks in (1 deck to go) a RC of 28 = (28-20)/1 = TC 8;
    5 decks in (1 deck to go) a RC of 25 = (25-20)/1 = TC 5;

    Quote Originally Posted by steger24 View Post
    Are we doing this properly or are we oversimplifying and therefore costing ourselves? Once again, I apologize I did not mention this earlier, and all of the help is appreciated. Thank you
    Again, at 24 you're at +4 TC anywhere in the shoe. With 1 deck left to go, RC = TC after offset, so with 1 deck to go, a RC or 23 = TC+3, a RC of 31 = TC +11, and a RC 16 = TC -4.

    With more than 1 deck to go, the TCs are compressed towards the +4.
    I'll try to post an Excel worksheet that will give you a better visual of KO TCs at various depths and RCs.

    Most important though, if you don't want to push out your max bet until a +4 TC, then don't push it out until +24 RC on a 6 deck shoe, regardless of how many decks are un-dealt.

    A RC <24 will always have a TC <4 on a 6 deck shoe, regardless of depth; a RC >24 will always have a TC >4 in a 6 deck shoe, regardless of depth.

    Can't figure out how to attach an Excel file. Here's a pic of the relevant info. Also included the warm line in light green and the hot area in dark green.
    TKO - Copy.jpg
    Last edited by Marvin; 06-14-2014 at 04:13 PM. Reason: spelling corrections

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by steger24 View Post
    if the RC is at 9, you up your bet and begin S16 vs 10. At this point we would need the RC to advance plus15 in order to push out a max bet (at an RC of 24).
    Quote Originally Posted by Marvin View Post
    1 deck in, when the RC 15, the TC is 2.2 (15-4)/5 ; this is too early for max bet unless the max bet is being dictated by low table max and not your bankroll. If you are pushing out your max at this point then you are over betting your BR.
    On an H17 game your edge at this point is less than 1%.
    You are correct Marvin but reread the quote from Steger. You didn't understand what he wrote. The pronoun "this" before "point" is referring to a RC of 9.

    Sorry looks like you caught it but decided not to amend rather than change your post.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marvin View Post
    Can't figure out how to attach an Excel file. Here's a pic of the relevant info. Also included the warm line in light green and the hot area in dark green.
    Nice visual there Marvin. As someone who doesn't use unbalanced counts it gets the point across very quick and quite well.

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