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Originally Posted by
Tthree
Your ramp is designed with betting bins. Each bin is part of the same TC. TC 2 goes from 2.0 to 2.99999. At 2.8 you are not that close to the next bin. The middle of the bin goes from 2.25 to 2.75. The average advantage for the bin is known but the distributions of individual situation advantages is a bell curve. That particular count of TC +2.8 may be on the low end of that advantage bell curve for the TC +2 bin due to the particular deck composition. You can't assume it is on the high side of the bell curve for the bin just because it is barely above the middle group for the fractional TC. You wouldn't be making a terrible assumption but you would be making an assumption that you are not supposed to be making with your optimal ramp. If you did this routinely your average advantage in bin TC +2 would go down as well as the average advantage in the TC +3 bin. Obviously that would have adverse affect on your profits.
Echo this, particularly at high counts. If the TC moves up or down by 1 it doesn't make much sense to to alter your bet. In fact I like to keep betting the same amount until I lose a hand regardless of how much the count drops. Betting large amounts but altering the amount slightly each hand based on the count is a sure way to decrease your longevity.
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